rebby
Researcher
Posts: 79
|
Post by rebby on May 9, 2024 15:57:00 GMT -5
I don’t believe this is accurate. TDPI revenues should more than double over the next 18-24 months Analysts estimates 2025 revenue around 19%to 25% above 2024. 18 to 24 months is more than a year anyway. finance.yahoo.com/quote/MNKD/analysis/Tyvaso dpi sales were up 6.3% last quarter. 4.4% the qtr before. Need 10.4 % to double in 7 quarters from here. That’s fine if you don’t believe that 25% CAGR is not an increase to revenue. And the past few quarters we have exceeded analyst expectations, so I have confidence that we’ll continue in that manner |
|
|
|
Post by cretin11 on May 9, 2024 16:21:33 GMT -5
Sorry rebby, I realize you want to “stop comparing the two” but it is still relevant and instructive to consider the comparison. I think the Street does.
|
|
|
|
Post by sayhey24 on May 9, 2024 16:42:30 GMT -5
In the 2nd to the last company (penultimate) I worked in, product development spending money, then evaluating performance results from spend to decide if to spend more, was called "success based". I bet in penultimate they never had the greatest advance in diabetes care since Banting and Best. Afrezza is a game changer and we don't need to learn if its any good from baby steps. For afrezza to be successful they need to solve three issues; label; SoC; cost. Mike said several times yesterday that they know how to dose now. Thats great news but if he had listened to Proboards he would have learned about 5 years earlier. Remember the circle slide from yesterday? What was the biggest circle? Do you remember what our plan for that circle was? Yes, it was V-Go. What did we hear about V-Go yesterday. Yes, its a failure but we knew that from Proboards years ago when it was first bought. What do you think our plan for the largest afrezza market is which is what afrezza was developed for? We are going to wait and see how we do on trials in the T1 space. What do they have to do with the T2 market? We know GLP1s stop working within 2 years and A1Cs start to rise again. How does Inhale-1 impact that? We are waiting on the success on trials for the T1 market which is very different than the T2 market. These markets and the needed trials are night and day. Then we have the smallest circle, gestational. We already know nothing beats afrezza post meal. Can we just help these soon to be moms sooner than later? Mike said aside from metformin they have nothing but insulin for this market. How did afrezza do in a large scale trial against metformin? Hmmm, I believe it was found to be superior. How are Inhale-1 results going to help us make a decision here if afrezza is better than metformin? We already know from ATTD that nothing beats afrezza's post meal control not even the AID. I would say our current approach is not "success based" but rather just another failure in judgement and we have had plenty of them. Maybe my favorite is Damon Dash. That was a dandy. |
|
|
|
Post by patience1 on May 9, 2024 17:00:36 GMT -5
Sayhey, if we look at captain Mike's net worth when he first hired in at MNKD and we look at Mike's net worth now including all his MNKD stock he has been a success for himself. Unfortunately none of the individuals holding MNKD stock I know of have had as large of an increase in net worth as Mike has in fact many are at a loss.
|
|
|
|
Post by agedhippie on May 9, 2024 17:04:46 GMT -5
... Then we have the smallest circle, gestational. We already know nothing beats afrezza post meal. Can we just help these soon to be moms sooner than later? Mike said aside from metformin they have nothing but insulin for this market. How did afrezza do in a large scale trial against metformin? Hmmm, I believe it was found to be superior. ... Let me explain this for you. Using Afrezza for gestational diabetes is off-label since it is not approved for use during pregnancy. My bet is that some endos are using it in those cases just as some are prescribing for kids, most are not going to prescribe off-label which means a large scale clinical trial. Afrezza has never been evaluated against metformin. Like GLP-1 and every other insulin in the world Afrezza has been evaluated for cases where oral meds including metformin have failed, and like all those other injectables it was superior. No surprise. I believe that buying V-Go was about buying a revenue stream and a salesforce, nothing more. Nobody could have expected to turn around V-Go after two companies had tried and failed. It did make the books and story better however at a time when that was needed. |
|
|
|
Post by Chris-C on May 9, 2024 17:05:24 GMT -5
The market reaction is quite typical for MNKD. No good news goes unpunished. At some point, perhaps in 2025, the Street will notice the climbing revenues and get on board. I don't blame management, I blame market apathy, I blame meme stocks, and I blame get rich quick day traders. I'm holding and happy that over the past year the stock has appreciated much more than historically. GLTAL
Chris C
|
|
|
|
Post by ktim on May 9, 2024 17:21:56 GMT -5
Seems like we should get some upward adjustment of estimates from analysts. If/shen that might result in some SP appreciation.
|
|
|
|
Post by sayhey24 on May 9, 2024 18:03:42 GMT -5
... Then we have the smallest circle, gestational. We already know nothing beats afrezza post meal. Can we just help these soon to be moms sooner than later? Mike said aside from metformin they have nothing but insulin for this market. How did afrezza do in a large scale trial against metformin? Hmmm, I believe it was found to be superior. ... Let me explain this for you. Using Afrezza for gestational diabetes is off-label since it is not approved for use during pregnancy. My bet is that some endos are using it in those cases just as some are prescribing for kids, most are not going to prescribe off-label which means a large scale clinical trial. Afrezza has never been evaluated against metformin. Like GLP-1 and every other insulin in the world Afrezza has been evaluated for cases where oral meds including metformin have failed, and like all those other injectables it was superior. No surprise. I believe that buying V-Go was about buying a revenue stream and a salesforce, nothing more. Nobody could have expected to turn around V-Go after two companies had tried and failed. It did make the books and story better however at a time when that was needed. Where to start. 175 compared metformin. In fact in one arm we had metofrmin alone. In the other we had afrezza added to metformin. The afrezza arm won. Thats the way you do a T2 trial. In fact Bill from VDex says to skip the metformin and go right to afrezza from the start and I agree. Ralph DeFronzo says its the greatest waste of time in T2 care. Afrezza by itself will win and as an adder to metformin it will beat metformin alone. Its not even close. Next up - gestational. We are talking about doing the trial. This should have been done years ago. Its a no-brainer. Mike said last night we are still talking and thinking about it. I say get-r-done and it should have been done years ago knowing afrezza's profile. These soon to be mom's should be getting the best care they can and thats afrezza. Buying V-Go was just boneheaded. What revenue stream? It was losing money when we bought it. Did you look at last night's slide, $4M? Mike at the time said we got all these new sales reps. Great, more cost and now they have all been laid off. I am so happy it made the story better at the time. I don't care about stories. Tyvaso DPI was soon going to make the story better and it did and still does. V-Go was just boneheaded and for stories Damon Dash was enough. I care about results and we blew $20M+ of money which could have been put to much better use and we wasted 2 years. We will never get that time back. |
|
|
|
Post by ktim on May 9, 2024 18:05:13 GMT -5
We're currently trading at 17x 2025 est earnings... which taken without any other context doesn't seem particularly high or low. Will be interesting if our share price starts tracking a conventional metric like projected earnings.
|
|
|
|
Post by sayhey24 on May 9, 2024 18:13:04 GMT -5
Sayhey, if we look at captain Mike's net worth when he first hired in at MNKD and we look at Mike's net worth now including all his MNKD stock he has been a success for himself. Unfortunately none of the individuals holding MNKD stock I know of have had as large of an increase in net worth as Mike has in fact many are at a loss. Well, I think he got half and he had to give the other half away but he still has done well. I say good for him and the Ex but he should be doing better. Once he fixes the cost issue the pps will be doing significantly better and so will Mike and so will I. |
|
|
|
Post by prcgorman2 on May 9, 2024 21:02:27 GMT -5
Sayhey, if we look at captain Mike's net worth when he first hired in at MNKD and we look at Mike's net worth now including all his MNKD stock he has been a success for himself. Unfortunately none of the individuals holding MNKD stock I know of have had as large of an increase in net worth as Mike has in fact many are at a loss. 7 years in a CEO position where much compensation is stock issued from the treasury with a par value of 1 cent (typically) and where the CEO’s net worth appreciates if the CEO performs well and performance is the basis for compensation set by the Board of Directors, not the CEO. Said plainly, he was partially paid with “funny money” that gained value if he performed well and lost value if he didn’t. MNKD was selling sub $1 when Mike started. And as Steven Binder mentioned in the earnings call yesterday, MannKinds future was in doubt. 7 years later MannKind is prepared to be debt-free (an uncommon accomplishment for any company or government) and is even profitable, and the stock is selling somewhere between 4x and 5x of when Mike started. Many of us here feel grateful for the substantial effort that not only rescued our investment but has it on the verge of thriving. |
|
|
|
Post by porkini on May 9, 2024 23:08:21 GMT -5
Sayhey, if we look at captain Mike's net worth when he first hired in at MNKD and we look at Mike's net worth now including all his MNKD stock he has been a success for himself. Unfortunately none of the individuals holding MNKD stock I know of have had as large of an increase in net worth as Mike has in fact many are at a loss. 7 years in a CEO position where much compensation is stock issued from the treasury with a par value of 1 cent (typically) and where the CEO’s net worth appreciates if the CEO performs well and performance is the basis for compensation set by the Board of Directors, not the CEO. Said plainly, he was partially paid with “funny money” that gained value if he performed well and lost value if he didn’t. MNKD was selling sub $1 when Mike started. And as Steven Binder mentioned in the earnings call yesterday, MannKinds future was in doubt. 7 years later MannKind is prepared to be debt-free (an uncommon accomplishment for any company or government) and is even profitable, and the stock is selling somewhere between 4x and 5x of when Mike started. Many of us here feel grateful for the substantial effort that not only rescued our investment but has it on the verge of thriving. Two words... Reverse Split. Now, Unreverse the split and where are you at? Every shareholder is not at the same comfort level of being able to react/recover from that type of circumstance. |
|
|
|
Post by Thundersnow on May 10, 2024 0:09:18 GMT -5
... Then we have the smallest circle, gestational. We already know nothing beats afrezza post meal. Can we just help these soon to be moms sooner than later? Mike said aside from metformin they have nothing but insulin for this market. How did afrezza do in a large scale trial against metformin? Hmmm, I believe it was found to be superior. ... Let me explain this for you. Using Afrezza for gestational diabetes is off-label since it is not approved for use during pregnancy. My bet is that some endos are using it in those cases just as some are prescribing for kids, most are not going to prescribe off-label which means a large scale clinical trial. Afrezza has never been evaluated against metformin. Like GLP-1 and every other insulin in the world Afrezza has been evaluated for cases where oral meds including metformin have failed, and like all those other injectables it was superior. No surprise. I believe that buying V-Go was about buying a revenue stream and a salesforce, nothing more. Nobody could have expected to turn around V-Go after two companies had tried and failed. It did make the books and story better however at a time when that was needed. I agree with your V-Go analysis but I also think Mike saw it as a platform device. I believe he wanted to use V-Go for other drugs that are needed on a daily basis. It could still happen but it's dragging down margins. |
|
|
|
Post by parrerob on May 10, 2024 1:49:08 GMT -5
Easy there, I bought a small handful of shares yesterday morning before the ER, so it is only natural the SP goes down a bit.  Watch out below, I just picked up another small handful of shares!  Hello my friend, can You try to sell just one share today in order to check if "the porkini effect" works in the opposite way too? |
|
|
|
Post by brentie on May 10, 2024 5:59:48 GMT -5
|
|
