Fiscal Twenty Fo-Yeah

[tarheelblue004]

Not sure about the title of this thread. But I am PUMPED! This is shaping up to be a CRAZY year for MannKind!

1) Show me the money: United Therapeutics still has a goal of 25k patients on their products by the end of FY25. I think we will end FY24 with an additional ~$100M in annualized Tyvaso DPI revenue (so an additional $25M / quarter by Q4), with most dropping to the bottom line, as UT marches towards their FY25 ambitions. Also see: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/13824/early-fy25-forecast

UT's business is seasonal, with growth in the Second and Third quarters. So expect our Q2 (August) and Q3 (November) quarterly calls to be bananas as we start to add major moolah to our bottom line. This is also in line with Steve's guidance in Q3 2023; a few quarters of cash flow break even (Q3 23 - Q1 24), then growth (Q2 24+)!

What will happen to our P/E ratio in when E starts to rapidly ramp up - as soon as one quarter from now!?

2) Afrezza's time to shine - ADA 2024: Time. What a beautiful paradox. Has it been 10 YEARS since Afrezza was approved? It feels like yesterday But it has certainly felt like 10 years of waiting for the next phase of Afrezza's story to commence. And this June, I believe we start the next chapter. Thanks to the experience of folks like Aged on this board, 10-years older me understands the importance of the data we are about to present, and maybe more importantly - who is going to present it.

A) Not one, not two, not three...but EIGHT Diabetes Thought Leaders from across the United States will be presenting an Inhale 3 data readout in the American Diabetes Association's 84th Scientific Sessions - this June!! The name of the session is: "Symposium - The Efficacy and Safety of Inhaled Insulin Used with Insulin Degludec Compared with Automated Insulin Delivery or Multiple Daily Insulin Injections in Adults with Type 1 Diabetes—Results of the INHALE-3 Randomized Trial (Includes Livestream)". Who are the EIGHT KOLs who wanted to be part of this data readout? See for yourself.
     1) Dr. Roy Beck (Florida) - www.diabetestechnology.org/dtm/bios/2018/beck.html
     2) Dr. Halis Akturk (Colorado) - medschool.cuanschutz.edu/barbara-davis-center-for-diabetes/about/faculty/halis-akturk
     3) Dr. Yodish Kudva (Minnesota) - www.mayo.edu/research/faculty/kudva-yogish-c-m-b-b-s/bio-00078171
     4) Dr. Ruth Weinstock (New York) - guides.upstate.edu/women-in-medicine/ruth-weinstock
     5) Dr. Carol Levy (New York) - profiles.mountsinai.org/carol-levy
     6) Dr. Grazia Aleppo (Illinois) - www.cardiometabolichealth.org/faculty/grazia-aleppo-md/
     7) Dr. Irl Hirsch (Washington) - uwmdi.org/faculty/irl-hirsch/
     8) Dr. Thomas Blevins (Texas) - texasdiabetes.com/about-us/our-doctors/thomas-blevins/

B) In case it was not clear that this is a BIG DEAL, MannKind is maximizing their impact and recognition at the conference by signing up to be a Platinum Exhibitor, so far the only one I see  eppro02.ativ.me/src/EventPilot/php/express/web/planner.php?id=ADA24

In summary, I think we are very close to an inflection point in our share price. Tyvaso DPI will drive short-term earnings growth while Afrezza is re-positioned to the medical community at-large. FY24 will be a year for the books. Until we build on it all in FY25. And then again in FY26. And then....

I'll stop there. Who is as excited as I am!?

[ktim]

tarheelblue004,

Tyvaso royalties increasing by $100M vs 2023 would certainly be great. However, that is more aggressive than the revenue projections presented by MNKD. We can always hope they are under promising in order to over deliver. Increase in royalties from Q4 to Q1 should be roughly equivalent as from Q3 to Q4 per UTHR reported Tyvaso revenue. But perhaps there is some seasonality that will accelerate growth in second half, if you are correct.

I'm certainly optimistic about coming few years, even if it doesn't rise to the level of excitement. Though I'm not a very excitable person, especially when it comes to investing.

[tarheelblue004]

Thanks for the note ktim! I am anticipating $100m increase in annualized Tyvaso DPI revenue by the end of the year. Two ways this is different than a $100m increase in Tyvaso royalties:
1) By saying annualized, I am referring to ending the year at a run rate of $100M more than today. Which would be an extra $25M per quarter by Q4.
2) I am not just referring to royalties, but all DPI revenue. The question then becomes what % of new growth will be royalties vs. manufacturing.

The basis of my estimates are:
1) UT’s goal of 25k by 25, where a look through their portfolio makes it clear the majority is expected to come from Tyvaso / DPI
2) Mike’s commentary on the revenue we will get from each 10,000 Tyvaso DPI patients

[alethea]

May 5, 2024 17:19:05 GMT -5 tarheelblue004 said:

Not sure about the title of this thread. But I am PUMPED! This is shaping up to be a CRAZY year for MannKind!

1) Show me the money: United Therapeutics still has a goal of 25k patients on their products by the end of FY25. I think we will end FY24 with an additional ~$100M in annualized Tyvaso DPI revenue (so an additional $25M / quarter by Q4), with most dropping to the bottom line, as UT marches towards their FY25 ambitions. Also see: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/13824/early-fy25-forecast

UT's business is seasonal, with growth in the Second and Third quarters. So expect our Q2 (August) and Q3 (November) quarterly calls to be bananas as we start to add major moolah to our bottom line. This is also in line with Steve's guidance in Q3 2023; a few quarters of cash flow break even (Q3 23 - Q1 24), then growth (Q2 24+)!

What will happen to our P/E ratio in when E starts to rapidly ramp up - as soon as one quarter from now!?

2) Afrezza's time to shine - ADA 2024: Time. What a beautiful paradox. Has it been 10 YEARS since Afrezza was approved? It feels like yesterday But it has certainly felt like 10 years of waiting for the next phase of Afrezza's story to commence. And this June, I believe we start the next chapter. Thanks to the experience of folks like Aged on this board, 10-years older me understands the importance of the data we are about to present, and maybe more importantly - who is going to present it.

A) Not one, not two, not three...but EIGHT Diabetes Thought Leaders from across the United States will
In summary, I think we are very close to an inflection point in our share price. Tyvaso DPI will drive short-term earnings growth while Afrezza is re-positioned to the medical community at-large. FY24 will be a year for the books. Until we build on it all in FY25. And then again in FY26. And then....

I'll stop there. Who is as excited as I am!?

CAREFUL, lest you be accused of excess Hopium. 

[cretin11]

Is there such a thing as “too much” hopium?! 🤣

[BD]

Yes.

[tarheelblue004]

No hope here. Just forecasts and public information!

[prcgorman2]

I have to agree with tarheelblue004 that an important differentiation about this year's ADA participation as compared to years past is the effort to create a symposium within a conference based on results of the "pump/switch" trial, and the investment in the "platinum" sponsorship. I wasn't able to find anything which described what are the benefit of an ADA Scientific Sessions "platinum" sponsorship, but typically platinum sponsorship at conferences brings privileges such as prominent recognition in conference materials, signage, programs, and promotional materials, premium exhibit space, et cetera. It feels like MannKind has pulled out all the stops.

[porkini]

May 6, 2024 10:40:39 GMT -5 prcgorman2 said:

I have to agree with @tarheelblue04 that an important differentiation about this year's ADA participation as compared to years past is the effort to create a symposium within a conference based on results of the "pump/switch" trial, and the investment in the "platinum" sponsorship. I wasn't able to find anything which described what are the benefit of an ADA Scientific Sessions "platinum" sponsorship, but typically platinum sponsorship at conferences brings privileges such as prominent recognition in conference materials, signage, programs, and promotional materials, premium exhibit space, et cetera. It feels like MannKind has pulled out all the stops.

Which is arguably better than a race car, eh!?

[cretin11]

Arguably so, but our ceo doesn't get an infield pass with the "platinum" sponsorship at ADA 

[ktim]

Fortunately we're in a great position that even the more realistic of expectations point to really good outcome for MNKD investors in coming years. Though I realize not as fun as discussions of hyperbolic riches. At least the type of hopium smoked now isn't as deadly as it was years ago.

[BD]

And I'm finally just buying a few shares at a time instead of leaps. Picked up a few more because I'm a glutton for punishment.

[prcgorman2]

May 6, 2024 15:50:02 GMT -5 ktim said:

Fortunately we're in a great position that even the more realistic of expectations point to really good outcome for MNKD investors in coming years. Though I realize not as fun as discussions of hyperbolic riches. At least the type of hopium smoked now isn't as deadly as it was years ago.

sayhey24 has said he still thinks MNKD can get over $100/sh (this decade).  I agree with him, although I'm more comfortable assuming I can reasonably hope to see north of $50 in the next 5 years.  That's based on dreams of Clofazamine and Nintedanib, not Afrezza (sadly).

[ktim]

NVDA is $920. Heck, BRK-A is over $600,000 per share. Obviously the exchanges impose no limit on share price. Why so conservative with your hopes for MNKD? If one is going to dream, dream large. I remember long ago we had a poll regarding peoples' desires for share price.

[cretin11]

Those polls are always interesting to look at in hindsight.