MNKD presentation at ADA on inhale 3 results

[cjm18]

Looks like results leaked.

[mango]

The nice thing about this trial is all the CGM data we will get. It’s like a large scale STAT trial. Something we have been pushing for since the STAT results came out years ago.

Here’s where things will get most interesting. We know RRAs have always showed a lower A1c compared to Afrezza, but I believe it’s only because they cause significant, and significantly more, hypoglycemic events. Hypoglycemia dramatically lowers A1c. Afrezza slowly lowers A1c back to a healthy baseline via restoring post-prandial glucose homeostasis via restoring the first phase insulin response that is absent or diminished.

If the RAA group shows a lower A1c in this trial, but has signficant/significantly more hypos compared to Afrezza, this will be data that can be used to expose the Big Lie, while also exposing Afrezza’s natural superiority. The CGM data will be exciting. I can’t wait for Saturday.

[castlerockchris]

So when it comes to options, those who have been on this board know where I stand. Yes you should always do your own due diligence, but if you have a sizable position in MNKD - 1,000 or more shares, you are missing an opportunity. Right now options in MNKD are somewhat illiquid (meaning tough to trade as there is not a significant amount of volume), and it does not pay much in premium, but you can still make money. We have been selling covered calls in MNKD since 2018 (wish I would have started from the first day I bought MNKD). We have not been aggressive, usually having covered calls on anywhere from 10% to 15% of our MNKD holdings, with a delta ranging from 10 - 20 (usually $.5 to $1.5 out of the money, or above the stock price at the time of the trade). The duration is usually under 90 days but always more than 40 when we initially sell the position. All that is to say we collect between $.1 and $.25 per share sold with every trade (depending on the duration). By way of example, today I sold covered calls on 3% of our MNKD shares. They were Aug 16 calls with a $6 strike price for $.13. If the price goes to $6 by the close date will I be bummed because 3% of our MNKD shares were called away? Heck no because it means 97% of our shares are worth 18% more than they are right now.

By doing this consistently, while only risking 10 to 15% of our shares at any one time, we have lowered our average cost basis on MNKD by 45% from $2.60 to $1.43. Using today's price of $4.88 we have taken what would have been a total gain of 88% and turned it into a gain of 241%. As the price goes higher we will be able to collect more premium as a percent of our cost basis, or choose to take even less risk, continuing to lower our cost basis. Imagine when MTOI is right and the stock goes to $10. The trade we made today would be worth close to $.30 per share in premium for the same amount of risk.

Options can seem risky and daunting in terms of educating oneself, but if you are truly an investor, you owe it to yourself to learn about selling covered calls against positions where you have 300, 400, 500 or more shares. Trust me when I say, if I can do it, anyone can! You simply need to develop your mechanics (rules), stick to them and be consistent. Every large broker has educational webinars or YouTube Videos on selling covered calls. I personally like the folks over at Tasty Trade on YouTube.

Good luck.

[BD]

Thanks, chris, great tutorial on how to leverage covered calls in a choppy market like MNKD's.

[cretin11]

Yes that’s a good tutorial. I like that strategy, though using such a short duration and low % of shares is a minimalistic approach. Expanding those parameters can greatly increase the profits. However, I understand the FOMO can be real and everyone must find their own comfort level.

Thanks gorman for your prediction which supports this call-selling approach and got the convo started 👍🏼

[sayhey24]

Jun 20, 2024 10:46:47 GMT -5 mango said:

The nice thing about this trial is all the CGM data we will get. It’s like a large scale STAT trial. Something we have been pushing for since the STAT results came out years ago.

Here’s where things will get most interesting. We know RRAs have always showed a lower A1c compared to Afrezza, but I believe it’s only because they cause significant, and significantly more, hypoglycemic events. Hypoglycemia dramatically lowers A1c. Afrezza slowly lowers A1c back to a healthy baseline via restoring post-prandial glucose homeostasis via restoring the first phase insulin response that is absent or diminished.

If the RAA group shows a lower A1c in this trial, but has signficant/significantly more hypos compared to Afrezza, this will be data that can be used to expose the Big Lie, while also exposing Afrezza’s natural superiority. The CGM data will be exciting. I can’t wait for Saturday.

Mango - the one testing center during the 171 study which properly dosed and did follow-up doses crushed the RAA AC1.  During the ADCOM the FDA team accused the doctor of cheating and told him if he had done the same follow-up dosing with the RAA his results would have been different.  The good doctor looked at the FDA lady and told her that if he did what she was suggesting he would have killed his patients.

When properly dosed with follow-ups as needed afrezza will always win.  Prior to CGMs it was hard and took some work.  Now, not so much.  I am fully expecting afrezza to have lower severe hypos and better A1C.  If not I will be very sad.

[ryster505]

Jun 20, 2024 14:57:55 GMT -5 castlerockchris said:

So when it comes to options, those who have been on this board know where I stand. Yes you should always do your own due diligence, but if you have a sizable position in MNKD - 1,000 or more shares, you are missing an opportunity. Right now options in MNKD are somewhat illiquid (meaning tough to trade as there is not a significant amount of volume), and it does not pay much in premium, but you can still make money. We have been selling covered calls in MNKD since 2018 (wish I would have started from the first day I bought MNKD). We have not been aggressive, usually having covered calls on anywhere from 10% to 15% of our MNKD holdings, with a delta ranging from 10 - 20 (usually $.5 to $1.5 out of the money, or above the stock price at the time of the trade). The duration is usually under 90 days but always more than 40 when we initially sell the position. All that is to say we collect between $.1 and $.25 per share sold with every trade (depending on the duration). By way of example, today I sold covered calls on 3% of our MNKD shares. They were Aug 16 calls with a $6 strike price for $.13. If the price goes to $6 by the close date will I be bummed because 3% of our MNKD shares were called away? Heck no because it means 97% of our shares are worth 18% more than they are right now.

By doing this consistently, while only risking 10 to 15% of our shares at any one time, we have lowered our average cost basis on MNKD by 45% from $2.60 to $1.43. Using today's price of $4.88 we have taken what would have been a total gain of 88% and turned it into a gain of 241%. As the price goes higher we will be able to collect more premium as a percent of our cost basis, or choose to take even less risk, continuing to lower our cost basis. Imagine when MTOI is right and the stock goes to $10. The trade we made today would be worth close to $.30 per share in premium for the same amount of risk.

Options can seem risky and daunting in terms of educating oneself, but if you are truly an investor, you owe it to yourself to learn about selling covered calls against positions where you have 300, 400, 500 or more shares. Trust me when I say, if I can do it, anyone can! You simply need to develop your mechanics (rules), stick to them and be consistent. Every large broker has educational webinars or YouTube Videos on selling covered calls. I personally like the folks over at Tasty Trade on YouTube.

Good luck.

And yet leaps are still unavailable. I think this approach might end sooner than later. Congrats on the gains so far!

[cretin11]

At least the Feb 2025s came out today.

[ryster505]

Jun 20, 2024 21:39:37 GMT -5 cretin11 said:

At least the Feb 2025s came out today.

Oh wow! (Sarcasm). Wake me up when we get 26/27s.

[cretin11]

Jun 20, 2024 22:07:18 GMT -5 ryster505 said:

Jun 20, 2024 21:39:37 GMT -5 cretin11 said:

At least the Feb 2025s came out today.

Oh wow! (Sarcasm). Wake me up when we get 26/27s.

Don’t hold your breath for the 27s. 26s might not be long. What are you wanting to do with them, sell calls per castlerock’s strategy?

[phdedieu12]

Maybe my understanding is different than what some have expressed here. Considering that Afrezza is the odd man out, I think that even non inferiority is a good outcome. I try to keep in mind that PWD won't be able to get a prescription for inhaled insulin until they've tried 1 or 2 RRA first. Being able to show that Afrezza is at the very least the same would/should equalize access to the inhaled option without having to jump through hoops. Of course superiority would be ideal, don't get me wrong, but there is a lot of good news even in non inferiority

[letitride]

Superiority and safety is what Im anticipating from this weekends announcements. Non inferiority is the least I could expect. And from the moves im seeing MC making my anticipation may be warranted. If there is any truth to an insulin pen shortage afrezza my get a helping hand into an accelerated insurance coverage from our competition stranger things have been known to occur over the years here.

[uvula]

Non-inferiority doesn't help at all when the alternatives are 10x less expensive.

[agedhippie]

Jun 21, 2024 6:03:04 GMT -5 phdedieu12 said:

Maybe my understanding is different than what some have expressed here. Considering that Afrezza is the odd man out, I think that even non inferiority is a good outcome. I try to keep in mind that PWD won't be able to get a prescription for inhaled insulin until they've tried 1 or 2 RRA first. Being able to show that Afrezza is at the very least the same would/should equalize access to the inhaled option without having to jump through hoops. Of course superiority would be ideal, don't get me wrong, but there is a lot of good news even in non inferiority

Afrezza is already rated as non-inferior to RAA, that is part of the insurance problem. Since it is non-inferior today insurers use the equivalence rules and pick an RAA for their meal time insulin. That's just how the system works - Afrezza is far more expensive and insurers want to make a profit.

For me the important thing here is less the results and far move the visibility that Afrezza will get. The people they have presenting matter to other endos. That is what will get endos to think maybe they could have the prior authorization fight with the insurer to try Afrezza. The key is to get endos to try it, the rest will follow.

[agedhippie]

Jun 21, 2024 7:58:34 GMT -5 letitride said:

Superiority and safety is what Im anticipating from this weekends announcements. Non inferiority is the least I could expect. And from the moves im seeing MC making my anticipation may be warranted. If there is any truth to an insulin pen shortage afrezza my get a helping hand into an accelerated insurance coverage from our competition stranger things have been known to occur over the years here.

There is an insulin pen shortage. I got swapped to Novolog because of the Humalog shortage and the PBM bumped the cost of co-pays for Humalog to drive the point home.