MNKD presentation at ADA on inhale 3 results

[sr71]

Jun 20, 2024 14:57:55 GMT -5 castlerockchris said:

So when it comes to options, those who have been on this board know where I stand. Yes you should always do your own due diligence, but if you have a sizable position in MNKD - 1,000 or more shares, you are missing an opportunity. Right now options in MNKD are somewhat illiquid (meaning tough to trade as there is not a significant amount of volume), and it does not pay much in premium, but you can still make money. We have been selling covered calls in MNKD since 2018 (wish I would have started from the first day I bought MNKD). We have not been aggressive, usually having covered calls on anywhere from 10% to 15% of our MNKD holdings, with a delta ranging from 10 - 20 (usually $.5 to $1.5 out of the money, or above the stock price at the time of the trade). The duration is usually under 90 days but always more than 40 when we initially sell the position. All that is to say we collect between $.1 and $.25 per share sold with every trade (depending on the duration). By way of example, today I sold covered calls on 3% of our MNKD shares. They were Aug 16 calls with a $6 strike price for $.13. If the price goes to $6 by the close date will I be bummed because 3% of our MNKD shares were called away? Heck no because it means 97% of our shares are worth 18% more than they are right now.

By doing this consistently, while only risking 10 to 15% of our shares at any one time, we have lowered our average cost basis on MNKD by 45% from $2.60 to $1.43. Using today's price of $4.88 we have taken what would have been a total gain of 88% and turned it into a gain of 241%. As the price goes higher we will be able to collect more premium as a percent of our cost basis, or choose to take even less risk, continuing to lower our cost basis. Imagine when MTOI is right and the stock goes to $10. The trade we made today would be worth close to $.30 per share in premium for the same amount of risk.

Options can seem risky and daunting in terms of educating oneself, but if you are truly an investor, you owe it to yourself to learn about selling covered calls against positions where you have 300, 400, 500 or more shares. Trust me when I say, if I can do it, anyone can! You simply need to develop your mechanics (rules), stick to them and be consistent. Every large broker has educational webinars or YouTube Videos on selling covered calls. I personally like the folks over at Tasty Trade on YouTube.

Good luck.

castle - Another of your excellent real-world write-ups on MNKD covered calls.  Your posts here should be invaluable to anyone considering this income strategy.

Question:  How are you able to get a fill at $.13?  On E-Trade I'm only allowed to place MNKD options orders in nickel increments (although occasionally I get a better fill in one cent increments).  

Could this be broker-specific, or is a margin account required to place such orders in one cent increments?

Thanks for your contributions to this board.

[uvula]

Slightly off topic but it is related and good for mnkd.

"This year at ADA, Dexcom is presenting more data on Dexcom CGM use among people with Type 2 diabetes than ever before. This data shows clinically meaningful decreases in A1C and increases in time in range for Dexcom CGM users with Type 2 diabetes both on insulin and not on insulin."

[ktim]

Jun 21, 2024 9:39:24 GMT -5 uvula said:

Slightly off topic but it is related and good for mnkd.

"This year at ADA, Dexcom is presenting more data on Dexcom CGM use among people with Type 2 diabetes than ever before. This data shows clinically meaningful decreases in A1C and increases in time in range for Dexcom CGM users with Type 2 diabetes both on insulin and not on insulin."

That shouldn't be surprising that a CGM would lead to better control even without insulin... but it is a bit.   Any talk of "time in range" I think is good for Afrezza (in the long run).

[ktim]

Jun 21, 2024 9:38:48 GMT -5 sr71 said:

Jun 20, 2024 14:57:55 GMT -5 castlerockchris said:

castle - Another of your excellent real-world write-ups on MNKD covered calls.  Your posts here should be invaluable to anyone considering this income strategy.

Question:  How are you able to get a fill at $.13?  On E-Trade I'm only allowed to place MNKD options orders in nickel increments (although occasionally I get a better fill in one cent increments).  

Could this be broker-specific, or is a margin account required to place such orders in one cent increments?

Thanks for your contributions to this board.

Schwab doesn't restrict limit orders unless using their "walking limit" feature.  

[sayhey24]

Jun 21, 2024 8:52:49 GMT -5 agedhippie said:

Jun 21, 2024 6:03:04 GMT -5 phdedieu12 said:

Maybe my understanding is different than what some have expressed here. Considering that Afrezza is the odd man out, I think that even non inferiority is a good outcome. I try to keep in mind that PWD won't be able to get a prescription for inhaled insulin until they've tried 1 or 2 RRA first. Being able to show that Afrezza is at the very least the same would/should equalize access to the inhaled option without having to jump through hoops. Of course superiority would be ideal, don't get me wrong, but there is a lot of good news even in non inferiority

Afrezza is already rated as non-inferior to RAA, that is part of the insurance problem. Since it is non-inferior today insurers use the equivalence rules and pick an RAA for their meal time insulin. That's just how the system works - Afrezza is far more expensive and insurers want to make a profit.

For me the important thing here is less the results and far move the visibility that Afrezza will get. The people they have presenting matter to other endos. That is what will get endos to think maybe they could have the prior authorization fight with the insurer to try Afrezza. The key is to get endos to try it, the rest will follow.

Not me.  What I want is superiority and fewer severe hypos.  We already know thats what afrezza can deliver.  The time has come for Mike to deliver.

[mytakeonit]

Covered calls ? Good luck with that when we go from $5 to $10 in a flash. And it doesn't have to be $10 for you to lose all your shares. And 1,000 shares isn't a "sizable position".

I say ... load up gang ... because the climb seems to have started early and we won't have to wait till August.

But, that's mytakeonit

[mytakeonit]

This just came out ... so some people are listening to my $10 prediction.

5.09 +0.23 (4.73%)
Jun 21, 2024, 2:16 PM EDT - Market open

MannKind Stock Forecast
All Analysts
Top Analysts
Stock Price Forecast
The 4 analysts with 12-month price forecasts for MannKind stock have an average target of 8.00, with a low estimate of 6.50 and a high estimate of 10. The average target predicts an increase of 57.17% from the current stock price of 5.09.
Analyst Consensus: Strong Buy
Target Low Average Median High
Price $6.50 $8.00 $8.00 $10
Change +27.70% +57.17% +57.17% +96.46%

[cretin11]

Jun 21, 2024 13:12:30 GMT -5 mytakeonit said:

Covered calls ? Good luck with that when we go from $5 to $10 in a flash. And it doesn't have to be $10 for you to lose all your shares. And 1,000 shares isn't a "sizable position".

Some of us are extremely grateful not to have heeded your numerous $10 prognostications! Those covered call premiums have stacked up significantly and lowered cost basis accordingly for years.

Moreover, as castlerock and others of us have explained before, you won’t lose all your shares even if “we go from $5 to $10 in a flash.” You only lose the shares subject to the covered calls, so you keep enough shares as is so such a dramatic share price increase would be most welcome news indeed!

[castlerockchris]

Jun 21, 2024 9:38:48 GMT -5 sr71 said:

castle - Another of your excellent real-world write-ups on MNKD covered calls.  Your posts here should be invaluable to anyone considering this income strategy.

Question:  How are you able to get a fill at $.13?  On E-Trade I'm only allowed to place MNKD options orders in nickel increments (although occasionally I get a better fill in one cent increments).  

Could this be broker-specific, or is a margin account required to place such orders in one cent increments?

Thanks for your contributions to this board.

I have two brokers, Fidelity and TastyTrade. The trade I spoke of was executed using Fidelity inside an IRA, which also makes you round to the nearest nickel, but when they can, they will try to get a better fill. On Tasty, which is a brokerage designed by the guys who created Think or Swim, and primarily an options/features trading platform, lets you price to the penny. Somehow I think Fidelity is taking my pennies, most of the time. The trade example I used was actually placed through Fidelity. At the time the bid/ask was .10 and .25. I started placing orders at .20 just to see where the market really was. I dropped pretty quickly to .15 and could not find a single taker. I put in a small order, two contracts, at .10 because sometime it will get filled a couple of pennies higher. In this case it got filled at .13 so I placed the remainder of the order at .10 and got filled at .13.

As to how and when Fidelity decides to cut me a break and give me the better fill, I think is really determined by what the market will pay and if Fidelity will throw me a bone (not even sure they know when they do it).  Technically, Fidelity is under no obligation to give me a better fill and I would say 90% of my options trades do not see a price improvement.

When I sold my first call with Tasty, I was blown away that I could price it in penny increments and immediately was disappointed in Fidelity thinking about the thousands of options trades and hundred of thousands of shares that has involved over my trading life, and thinking all the pennies that could have been in my pocket vs theirs. That is why I have moved a vast majority of my options and future trades to Tasty.

[castlerockchris]

Jun 21, 2024 13:12:30 GMT -5 mytakeonit said:

Covered calls ? Good luck with that when we go from $5 to $10 in a flash. And it doesn't have to be $10 for you to lose all your shares. And 1,000 shares isn't a "sizable position".

I say ... load up gang ... because the climb seems to have started early and we won't have to wait till August.

But, that's mytakeonit

MTOI, I realize you like to joke, but the reality is "sizable" is in the eye of the holder. I was simply trying to make the point that if you have 1,000 shares, you have enough to protect yourself, and make a little cash using covered calls. Again, I could give a crap if 10 - 15% of my position gets called away when the stock hits $10, of $20 or what ever. I will still have 85 - 90% of my shares to ride off into the winner's circle with. The only way we go from $5 to $10 in a flash and stay there (i.e. not a short squeeze, which alway retrace), is around drug approvals and the timing of those is reasonably easy to forecast. 

[mytakeonit]

I don't know about you guys ... but if I want a stock ... I just buy it on E*Trade.

But, that's mytakeonit

[sportsrancho]

Jun 21, 2024 9:38:48 GMT -5 sr71 said:

Jun 20, 2024 14:57:55 GMT -5 castlerockchris said:

So when it comes to options, those who have been on this board know where I stand. Yes you should always do your own due diligence, but if you have a sizable position in MNKD - 1,000 or more shares, you are missing an opportunity. Right now options in MNKD are somewhat illiquid (meaning tough to trade as there is not a significant amount of volume), and it does not pay much in premium, but you can still make money. We have been selling covered calls in MNKD since 2018 (wish I would have started from the first day I bought MNKD). We have not been aggressive, usually having covered calls on anywhere from 10% to 15% of our MNKD holdings, with a delta ranging from 10 - 20 (usually $.5 to $1.5 out of the money, or above the stock price at the time of the trade). The duration is usually under 90 days but always more than 40 when we initially sell the position. All that is to say we collect between $.1 and $.25 per share sold with every trade (depending on the duration). By way of example, today I sold covered calls on 3% of our MNKD shares. They were Aug 16 calls with a $6 strike price for $.13. If the price goes to $6 by the close date will I be bummed because 3% of our MNKD shares were called away? Heck no because it means 97% of our shares are worth 18% more than they are right now.

By doing this consistently, while only risking 10 to 15% of our shares at any one time, we have lowered our average cost basis on MNKD by 45% from $2.60 to $1.43. Using today's price of $4.88 we have taken what would have been a total gain of 88% and turned it into a gain of 241%. As the price goes higher we will be able to collect more premium as a percent of our cost basis, or choose to take even less risk, continuing to lower our cost basis. Imagine when MTOI is right and the stock goes to $10. The trade we made today would be worth close to $.30 per share in premium for the same amount of risk.

Options can seem risky and daunting in terms of educating oneself, but if you are truly an investor, you owe it to yourself to learn about selling covered calls against positions where you have 300, 400, 500 or more shares. Trust me when I say, if I can do it, anyone can! You simply need to develop your mechanics (rules), stick to them and be consistent. Every large broker has educational webinars or YouTube Videos on selling covered calls. I personally like the folks over at Tasty Trade on YouTube.

Good luck.

castle - Another of your excellent real-world write-ups on MNKD covered calls.  Your posts here should be invaluable to anyone considering this income strategy.

Question:  How are you able to get a fill at $.13?  On E-Trade I'm only allowed to place MNKD options orders in nickel increments (although occasionally I get a better fill in one cent increments).  

Could this be broker-specific, or is a margin account required to place such orders in one cent increments?

Thanks for your contributions to this board.

I agree! Invaluable❣️Thank you

[phantomfj]

Interactive Brokers has always allowed any option I have ever traded, including MNKD, in penny increments. They are by far the best option I have for trading options here in Canada..... I am quite jealous of the wide range of trading platforms in the US, most here in Canada are stuck in the Dark Ages in many ways.....

[mytakeonit]

All of you that want to do covered calls ... it is up to you ... BUT, I wouldn't do it on MNKD shares. You all do know that there are analysts that just put a "Strong Buy" rating on MNKD ... and that's why it is climbing. What you are doing is a lot riskier than going to Las Vegas. So Good Luck to you all.

And that is mytakeonit

[cretin11]

Selling covered calls is actually the opposite of risky.

Vegas? Now THAT can be risky 😆🥃🤩