Q2 2024

[Clement]

 
Quarter ending                                     3/31/2024    12/31/2023    9/30/2023     6/30/2023     3/31/2023

MNKD Total Revenue (thousands)           66,263          58,472           51,253         48,611           40,626

When you examine the increase for each quarter over the preceding quarter, you can find an average of  >$6M increase.
I suggest we add 6M to Q1 revenue to estimate Q2.
My estimate for Q2 is $72M total revenue.

[casualinvestor]

HarryX posted historical Tyvaso sales in this post: mnkd.proboards.com/post/264448

Q1 to Q2 of every the year has a larger jump than the rest. Partly due to less or negative growth in the Q4 and Q1 before it. I'm not sure what drives this season sales trend (repricing maybe be part of it, but I'm not going to look up price historical changes), but I've compared it to Afrezza having a great Q4, then a terrible Q1 pretty much every year.

DPI has a huge jump in Q2 for the last two years, but those are due to introduction of DPI (2022 Q2) and more manufacturing coming online (2023 Q2). But it's worth noting that total Tyvaso sales went way up in those quarters. This may partly be due to duplicate medication as people switch?

So I'm thinking that DPI revenue (not Mannkind total revenue) will grow by 15-20% from Q1->Q2 this year. This applies to UTHR and MNKD

[Clement]

Two more reasons for increased revs for T-DPI have to do with improved Medicare reimbursement which happened in 2024:

1. Some patients will come off of the free drug program. This will result in sales for which MNKD gets royalty.

2. More people will convert to T-DPI from T-neb because of more equal Medicare reimbursement.

-- from a previous post:
"In Q&A during the UTHR EC this morning, at about 33:00, Mike B. makes comments about reimbursement for TDPI becoming more equal with T-neb in 2024. He also expects to see a reduction in PAP participation for TDPI in 2024." mnkd.proboards.com/post/261416/thread

[radgray68]

UTHR also increased the sales reps for tyvaso at the beginning of the year to get out in front of the competition. That, on top of at least 7% increased sales numbers + price increase for Afrezza, suggests to me a likely $300 million run rate by the end of 2024.

With the bills being paid already by current sales, this increase should all go to the bottom line. Add India and Brazil next year and it only gets better. Can you imagine netting $1 a share in 2025 with a $5 stock price? No way we stay below $5 for much longer. No way!

[parrerob]

Hi RadGray
You mean 300 million $ net rev for 2024 or q4 at 75 million $ so that run rate will be 300? Just curious about your feeling.
Also, ok India in 2025 (sill hopefully) but Brasil restart? Where did you hear or read about it?
Thanks

[radgray68]

I was seeing about $75 million Q4 and $300 million total for 2024. That leaves it possible for FY 2025 to put away $1 a share in profits.
In other words, buy buy buy.

[runner]

Rad said: No way we stay below $5 for much longer. No way!

Don’t know if it means much, but the after hours price is up to $5.04 on nasdaq.com.