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Post by stella on Jul 25, 2024 8:24:44 GMT -5
I thought the deal was MNKD gets to use Pulmatrix's iSPERSE DPI technology in exchange for use of MNKD's Cricket inhaler (which is just sitting on the shelf)? MNKD will test various drug molecules that require larger doses using their DPI platform? Their lab is already set-up to do that, so MNKD will lease/pay for skilled personnel? If results are promising, they acquire the whole company with drugs in development? |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jul 25, 2024 10:07:39 GMT -5
I thought the deal was MNKD gets to use Pulmatrix's iSPERSE DPI technology in exchange for use of MNKD's Cricket inhaler (which is just sitting on the shelf)? MNKD will test various drug molecules that require larger doses using their DPI platform? Their lab is already set-up to do that, so MNKD will lease/pay for skilled personnel? If results are promising, they acquire the whole company with drugs in development? Ooh, I like this. Kiss and see if you like it before you get more intimate. |
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Post by stella on Jul 25, 2024 12:22:36 GMT -5
I thought the deal was MNKD gets to use Pulmatrix's iSPERSE DPI technology in exchange for use of MNKD's Cricket inhaler (which is just sitting on the shelf)? MNKD will test various drug molecules that require larger doses using their DPI platform? Their lab is already set-up to do that, so MNKD will lease/pay for skilled personnel? If results are promising, they acquire the whole company with drugs in development? Ooh, I like this. Kiss and see if you like it before you get more intimate. As of 1Q24.....PULM had $16 mm in cash, no ST/LT debt (you could count $8.6 mm lease obligation as debt), and equity market cap is currently $7.75 mm. Not a heavy lift. |
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Post by dh4mizzou on Jul 25, 2024 13:28:35 GMT -5
“Before December 1, 2025, holders will have the right to convert their notes only upon the occurrence of certain events. From and after December 1, 2025, until the close of business on the business day immediately preceding the maturity date, holders will have the right to convert all or any portion of their notes at their election. Upon conversion, MannKind will pay or deliver, as the case may be, cash, shares of MannKind’s common stock or a combination of cash and shares of MannKind’s common stock, at its election. The initial conversion rate is 191.8281 shares of common stock per $1,000 principal amount of notes, which represents an initial conversion price of approximately $5.21 per share of common stock. The initial conversion price represents a premium of approximately 30% over the last reported sale of $4.01 per share of MannKind’s common stock on March 1, 2021. The conversion rate and conversion price will be subject to adjustment upon the occurrence of certain events. MannKind may not redeem the notes prior to March 6, 2024. MannKind may redeem for cash all or any portion of the notes (subject to certain limitations), at its option, on or after March 6, 2024 and prior to the 36th scheduled trading day immediately preceding the maturity date, if the last reported sale price of MannKind’s common stock has been at least 130% of the conversion price then in effect for at least 20 trading days (whether or not consecutive) during any 30 consecutive trading day period (including the last trading day of such period) ending on, and including, the trading day immediately preceding the date on which MannKind provides notice of redemption at a redemption price equal to 100% of the principal amount of the notes to be redeemed, plus accrued and unpaid interest to, but excluding, the redemption date.” Can anyone identify the conversion price "then in effect" as of March 6th, 2024? Is it that $ 4.01 reported above or a different share price? |
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Post by sayhey24 on Jul 25, 2024 15:01:31 GMT -5
I thought the deal was MNKD gets to use Pulmatrix's iSPERSE DPI technology in exchange for use of MNKD's Cricket inhaler (which is just sitting on the shelf)? MNKD will test various drug molecules that require larger doses using their DPI platform? Their lab is already set-up to do that, so MNKD will lease/pay for skilled personnel? If results are promising, they acquire the whole company with drugs in development? OK - as the PR says MNKD "has agreed to in-license iSPERSE™ technology from Pulmatrix for certain indications in exchange for an out-license of MannKind’s Cricket® inhaler to Pulmatrix for inhaled delivery of dihydroergotamine (DHE) for migraine treatment" This company was running out of money. If there is promise with their migraine treatment which is what MNKD already has on the shelf in the back room just let them run out of cash and pick up the assets in receivership. Is it better than our shelfed migraine treatment? I would sure rather spend the money on a TS GLP1 analog study since we already did the P1b TS-GLP1 with outstanding results. So now we are giving our technology away which was developed to be used with Technosphere to another company developing a competing product and paying their bills. I really can't wait for the 2Q2024 call in a few weeks to hear more on this one especially after Mike said it took a lot of work but they finally have dosing for Clofazomine on TS working. I thought V-Go was a bad deal and I was right. This one kind of blows my mind. I am just waiting for Damon Dash to show back up. |
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Post by cretin11 on Jul 25, 2024 15:35:54 GMT -5
Too early to say this one will end up in the VGo/DamonDash/FlyingBurgers category. You raise some valid points and questions, hopefully the answers will be sensible.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jul 25, 2024 15:42:10 GMT -5
“Before December 1, 2025, holders will have the right to convert their notes only upon the occurrence of certain events. From and after December 1, 2025, until the close of business on the business day immediately preceding the maturity date, holders will have the right to convert all or any portion of their notes at their election. Upon conversion, MannKind will pay or deliver, as the case may be, cash, shares of MannKind’s common stock or a combination of cash and shares of MannKind’s common stock, at its election. The initial conversion rate is 191.8281 shares of common stock per $1,000 principal amount of notes, which represents an initial conversion price of approximately $5.21 per share of common stock. The initial conversion price represents a premium of approximately 30% over the last reported sale of $4.01 per share of MannKind’s common stock on March 1, 2021. The conversion rate and conversion price will be subject to adjustment upon the occurrence of certain events. MannKind may not redeem the notes prior to March 6, 2024. MannKind may redeem for cash all or any portion of the notes (subject to certain limitations), at its option, on or after March 6, 2024 and prior to the 36th scheduled trading day immediately preceding the maturity date, if the last reported sale price of MannKind’s common stock has been at least 130% of the conversion price then in effect for at least 20 trading days (whether or not consecutive) during any 30 consecutive trading day period (including the last trading day of such period) ending on, and including, the trading day immediately preceding the date on which MannKind provides notice of redemption at a redemption price equal to 100% of the principal amount of the notes to be redeemed, plus accrued and unpaid interest to, but excluding, the redemption date.” Can anyone identify the conversion price "then in effect" as of March 6th, 2024? Is it that $ 4.01 reported above or a different share price? As I understood it based on a post by anderson. Any errors in reproducing it are mine.
\Anderson said, roughly... \
$4.01 per share is the price paid by a "consortium" for $230M in convertible bonds (~57.4M shares). $5.21 is the conversion price MNKD will pay to retire the bonds. $6.77 is the call price that has to be experienced for 20 out of 30 trading days after March 6, 2024 as the earliest date at which the debt can be retired. If $6.77 or more for 20 out of 30 days never happens, the debt can be retired at maturity in December 2026 at the conversion price.
\End of what I remember Anderson said...\
130% of $4.01 = $5.21 conversion price
130% of $5.21 = $6.77 call price
57.4M shares * $5.21 = $299M (approximately)
Add to that the 2% per annum interest on debt, and it looks like the loan cost approximately 40% in effective interest. I've never tried to figure this out before, so very possible I'm making mistakes and missing much of the story. And of course there can be call or put provisions I'm unaware of that would also play into a strategy which includes shorting. Good times.
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Post by porkini on Jul 25, 2024 16:35:47 GMT -5
I thought the deal was MNKD gets to use Pulmatrix's iSPERSE DPI technology in exchange for use of MNKD's Cricket inhaler (which is just sitting on the shelf)? MNKD will test various drug molecules that require larger doses using their DPI platform? Their lab is already set-up to do that, so MNKD will lease/pay for skilled personnel? If results are promising, they acquire the whole company with drugs in development? OK - as the PR says MNKD "has agreed to in-license iSPERSE™ technology from Pulmatrix for certain indications in exchange for an out-license of MannKind’s Cricket® inhaler to Pulmatrix for inhaled delivery of dihydroergotamine (DHE) for migraine treatment" This company was running out of money. If there is promise with their migraine treatment which is what MNKD already has on the shelf in the back room just let them run out of cash and pick up the assets in receivership. Is it better than our shelfed migraine treatment? I would sure rather spend the money on a TS GLP1 analog study since we already did the P1b TS-GLP1 with outstanding results. So now we are giving our technology away which was developed to be used with Technosphere to another company developing a competing product and paying their bills. I really can't wait for the 2Q2024 call in a few weeks to hear more on this one especially after Mike said it took a lot of work but they finally have dosing for Clofazomine on TS working. I thought V-Go was a bad deal and I was right. This one kind of blows my mind. I am just waiting for Damon Dash to show back up.I kinda hope he does, since your mind is already blown, no more damage would be done.   |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jul 25, 2024 19:16:11 GMT -5
...we hear from Burkhard Blank “However, for some drug candidates, such as Clofazimine, that may require a significantly higher drug payload, the iSPERSE formulation technology may be better suited for developing viable powders." Come on - what are we doing? If we knew from the jump Clofazamine was not a good candidate for TS - move on to something else which is.
Um, they seem to be doing what you suggested? i.e., Clofazimine potentially on iSPERSE? And with limited investment. It ain't your GLP1 (another super-saturated market place with existing mega-BPs), but how about we make it easy (and cheap) on ourselves while we work on taking the training wheels off our rocket ship?
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Post by anderson on Jul 25, 2024 22:30:34 GMT -5
Talking about the conversion price $5.21 and the interest rate of 2.5%, what is the chance they convert early to get their money back? My reasoning is 2 years left ~5% interest left to earn. So 5.21 * 1.05=5.4705. If the price goes over this for an extended time it is time to convert and sell so you can get your cash in something that earns more than 2.5% per year.
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Post by casualinvestor on Jul 26, 2024 8:34:47 GMT -5
Convert and sell? Then they couldn't play low-risk shorting games that likely pay a lot more than 2.5%/year
/cynicism
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Post by stella on Jul 26, 2024 11:07:26 GMT -5
I thought the deal was MNKD gets to use Pulmatrix's iSPERSE DPI technology in exchange for use of MNKD's Cricket inhaler (which is just sitting on the shelf)? MNKD will test various drug molecules that require larger doses using their DPI platform? Their lab is already set-up to do that, so MNKD will lease/pay for skilled personnel? If results are promising, they acquire the whole company with drugs in development? OK - as the PR says MNKD "has agreed to in-license iSPERSE™ technology from Pulmatrix for certain indications in exchange for an out-license of MannKind’s Cricket® inhaler to Pulmatrix for inhaled delivery of dihydroergotamine (DHE) for migraine treatment" This company was running out of money. If there is promise with their migraine treatment which is what MNKD already has on the shelf in the back room just let them run out of cash and pick up the assets in receivership. Is it better than our shelfed migraine treatment? I would sure rather spend the money on a TS GLP1 analog study since we already did the P1b TS-GLP1 with outstanding results. So now we are giving our technology away which was developed to be used with Technosphere to another company developing a competing product and paying their bills. I really can't wait for the 2Q2024 call in a few weeks to hear more on this one especially after Mike said it took a lot of work but they finally have dosing for Clofazomine on TS working. I thought V-Go was a bad deal and I was right. This one kind of blows my mind. I am just waiting for Damon Dash to show back up. I'm sure the board has considered TS GLP-1. They have decided not to pursue it at this time. The PULM transaction was a cashless transaction. With $16 mm in cash at the end of 1Q24, PULM said cash would last until 1Q26. So theoretically, they can survive another year or more. In the meantime, MNKD can kick the tires on iSPHERE. I doubt they're focused on PULM's migraine drug, since, as you mentioned, MNKD shelved it's migraine drug. MNKD will see how it does with heavy load drug molecules, including clofazimine. If it merits expanding their DPI options, maybe they'll acquire the technology. There may be other benefits. Maybe MNKD needed more lab capacity. Maybe they wanted a presence in the Boston pharma community. I don't understand why people are down on this deal....comparing it to VGo, Damon Dash, etc. You're driving through life looking through the rear-view mirror. None of us has the information Mike and the Board have. I guess we wait and see. |
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Post by kc on Jul 26, 2024 16:15:30 GMT -5
Still holding after all these years. You're making this a habit...popping in unannounced 2x a year. Just leading a very busy life. I wish I could pop up more often, but I never lost faith in the company, the management And hopefully one day will be blessed with some great news. Funny thing is I have so many other investments. And they’ve all done really well, especially in comparison to my return on Mannkind. It taught me a lot about disciplined investing And patience. If I would take what my original investment has been in this company and had put it into Apple, broad com, Nvidia, Google, I would be much further ahead. But I would not have learned as much about a good product and the good investors who have been hanging around waiting for something big to happen. Lessons learned. |
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Post by sayhey24 on Jul 26, 2024 16:55:08 GMT -5
OK - as the PR says MNKD "has agreed to in-license iSPERSE™ technology from Pulmatrix for certain indications in exchange for an out-license of MannKind’s Cricket® inhaler to Pulmatrix for inhaled delivery of dihydroergotamine (DHE) for migraine treatment" This company was running out of money. If there is promise with their migraine treatment which is what MNKD already has on the shelf in the back room just let them run out of cash and pick up the assets in receivership. Is it better than our shelfed migraine treatment? I would sure rather spend the money on a TS GLP1 analog study since we already did the P1b TS-GLP1 with outstanding results. So now we are giving our technology away which was developed to be used with Technosphere to another company developing a competing product and paying their bills. I really can't wait for the 2Q2024 call in a few weeks to hear more on this one especially after Mike said it took a lot of work but they finally have dosing for Clofazomine on TS working. I thought V-Go was a bad deal and I was right. This one kind of blows my mind. I am just waiting for Damon Dash to show back up. I'm sure the board has considered TS GLP-1. They have decided not to pursue it at this time. The PULM transaction was a cashless transaction. With $16 mm in cash at the end of 1Q24, PULM said cash would last until 1Q26. So theoretically, they can survive another year or more. In the meantime, MNKD can kick the tires on iSPHERE. I doubt they're focused on PULM's migraine drug, since, as you mentioned, MNKD shelved it's migraine drug. MNKD will see how it does with heavy load drug molecules, including clofazimine. If it merits expanding their DPI options, maybe they'll acquire the technology. There may be other benefits. Maybe MNKD needed more lab capacity. Maybe they wanted a presence in the Boston pharma community. I don't understand why people are down on this deal....comparing it to VGo, Damon Dash, etc. You're driving through life looking through the rear-view mirror. None of us has the information Mike and the Board have. I guess we wait and see. "The PULM transaction was a cashless transaction" - are you kidding me? We are now paying salaries for 25 people plus facilities. Thats at least $10M a year and we get use of iSphere to replace Technosphere and then have to build a new factory to support this new technology. How much is that? Mike said $300M for UTHR for Tyvaso DPI. I know the board has considered Saxenda DPI and the more pressure the better. Lets hope the pressure gets it done. A follow-up study to what Richardson has already done is low hanging fruit in a $100M market which keeps failing on developing a better oral product. The problem is IMO, it was not Mike's idea. In fact he was not aware of Richardson's work. Why in the world do we want to kick the tires on iSphere? We have an investigational product MNKD-101 which is not approved and is not DPI. Mike has already said they have Clofazimine on TS. We already have afrezza and nothing is even close. Why do we want to put insulin on iSphere? Building a new iSphere factory is probably $300M plus new people to learn the manufacturing process. Why do we want to pay more "researchers" developing things outside of Technosphere? We finally got rid of the sales force who could not sell and now we have researchers for another company? How about we stick to molecules which work with TS like human insulin and GLP1 analogs? Remember how V-Go was a great deal as we picked up all these sales reps? Where are they now? I think riffed. To me this is another V-Go disaster until Mike gives me a reason not to believe that and so far I have not gotten that. Lets hear what Mike says. Remember what he tried to say about V-Go and I called BS on that. Who was right Mike or me??? Lets hope Mike is right about this but the jury is out. I would sure like to be wrong. |
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Post by BD on Jul 26, 2024 16:58:46 GMT -5
I wish I had some clue what the final lesson is actually going to be. That would certainly help me make some decisions re. just how long my volunteer message board admin gig is actually going to last... |
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