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Post by mayday on Jul 26, 2024 17:52:32 GMT -5
I wish I had some clue what the final lesson is actually going to be. That would certainly help me make some decisions re. just how long my volunteer message board admin gig is actually going to last... My God man, look at all the perks!
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Post by cretin11 on Jul 26, 2024 18:09:19 GMT -5
sayhey are we really paying the salaries of 25 employees because of the deal you reference? I’ve seen you mention it a couple of times, didn’t know if you’re speculating or if it was reported somewhere (apologies if this was posted somewhere and I missed it).
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jul 26, 2024 19:37:27 GMT -5
V-Go was far short of a disaster, and we don’t know how much the V-Go “in the bag” and V-Go salesfore contacts have helped represent Afrezza. V-Go MAY not have panned out but it wasn’t anywhere close to a “disaster”. Sanofi bailing under Oliver Brandicoot [sic] was a bona fide disaster. The reverse split to keep from being delisted from Nasdaq was disastrous. The ensuing dilution to keep the lights on until the Tyvaso DPI dev/royalty deal came along was bad, as was the “toxic” debt. We’ve seen what a disaster and bad management looks like, and the stock now trading at 6x from when the current CEO took over is not disastrous. It doesn’t measure up to some people’s idea of what good management looks like, but it isn’t the picture painted in unconvincing hyperbolic rants either.
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Post by neil36 on Jul 26, 2024 20:12:13 GMT -5
Castagna came in during the middle of the Tel Aviv stock market listing. Remember getting up early and checking to see the stock price in Israel? The desparacy of those days can not be overstated.
Once stocks go down hard, they rarely come back. But on the rare occassion that they do, the turnaround in stock price can be jaw-dropping. Let's hope this turns out to be one of the rare exceptions to the rule.
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Post by BD on Jul 26, 2024 20:28:42 GMT -5
Thanks neil, I learned a new word...
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Post by sayhey24 on Jul 27, 2024 6:56:00 GMT -5
sayhey are we really paying the salaries of 25 employees because of the deal you reference? I’ve seen you mention it a couple of times, didn’t know if you’re speculating or if it was reported somewhere (apologies if this was posted somewhere and I missed it). I usually don't make things up. I could be wrong but I am usually not. Afrezza on Technosphere is the greatest advance in diabetes care in over 100 years. Some on this board would have had you believe otherwise and point at the 171 study A1c and say fact in point. Inhale-3 put an end to that if we - as Mango suggested - disregard those who were intentionally non-compliant. If Mike gets that done afrezza will show T1 A1c superiority. Pulmatrix has some kind of deal with Cipla. Maybe Cipla wants afrezza to use iSperse, IDK. Maybe they are already building an iSperse factory? Maybe iSperse is better for Clofazimine, IDK. How about we get Cipla to pay for some of this stuff. How many of the lab people MNKD "hires" we should get an update in a couple of weeks but for now 25 is a good number to use IMO. What we do know is we are hiring "some" until we get the official update in a couple of weeks. What I would like is an update on Inhale-2. What is Cipla doing with it.
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Post by sayhey24 on Jul 27, 2024 7:27:04 GMT -5
V-Go was far short of a disaster, and we don’t know how much the V-Go “in the bag” and V-Go salesfore contacts have helped represent Afrezza. V-Go MAY not have panned out but it wasn’t anywhere close to a “disaster”. Sanofi bailing under Oliver Brandicoot [sic] was a bona fide disaster. The reverse split to keep from being delisted from Nasdaq was disastrous. The ensuing dilution to keep the lights on until the Tyvaso DPI dev/royalty deal came along was bad, as was the “toxic” debt. We’ve seen what a disaster and bad management looks like, and the stock now trading at 6x from when the current CEO took over is not disastrous. It doesn’t measure up to some people’s idea of what good management looks like, but it isn’t the picture painted in unconvincing hyperbolic rants either. V-Go and afrezza are like oil and water. You said - we don’t know how much the V-Go helped afrezza sales? Yes we do. ZERO. Mike told us they made a mess with their key accounts and most are now gone. In fact Mike said the only sales reps left are the key account reps. MNKD did the Sanofi deal with Chris Viehbacher not Ollie Brandicourt. Do you want me to put my tin foil hat on??? Ollie is the guy Al Mann made look like an idiot after Ollie bought Exubera from Sanofi when he was at Pfizer for $1.2B and then Sanofi did the deal with MNKD for afrezza. If you want $20pps+ for MNKD, how about we get insurance coverage? I know Robert Ford was banking on icodec and I assume Kevin Sayer was too. DXCM was down 40% yesterday. I wonder how he slept last night??? Getting afrezza approved with no pre-auths into the Medicare T2 market solves the sales issue both have now for their CGMs. More over, it will really help the T2s with the BG control with or without the Ozempic.
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Post by stella on Jul 27, 2024 7:36:17 GMT -5
sayhey are we really paying the salaries of 25 employees because of the deal you reference? I’ve seen you mention it a couple of times, didn’t know if you’re speculating or if it was reported somewhere (apologies if this was posted somewhere and I missed it). I usually don't make things up. I could be wrong but I am usually not. Afrezza on Technosphere is the greatest advance in diabetes care in over 100 years. Some on this board would have had you believe otherwise and point at the 171 study A1c and say fact in point. Inhale-3 put an end to that if we - as Mango suggested - disregard those who were intentionally non-compliant. If Mike gets that done afrezza will show T1 A1c superiority. Pulmatrix has some kind of deal with Cipla. Maybe Cipla wants afrezza to use iSperse, IDK. Maybe they are already building an iSperse factory? Maybe iSperse is better for Clofazimine, IDK. How about we get Cipla to pay for some of this stuff. How many of the lab people MNKD "hires" we should get an update in a couple of weeks but for now 25 is a good number to use IMO. What we do know is we are hiring "some" until we get the official update in a couple of weeks. What I would like is an update on Inhale-2. What is Cipla doing with it. Hmmm. It must be really frustrating to be "right" about everything and not be able to do anything about it. I wish you had put on your suit and tie 8 years ago and interviewed for the MNKD CEO position. Our stock would be at $100 right now. On a serious note, please show us where your $10 mm/25 people numbers are coming from? I see total lease expense running $1.3-1.4 mm a year, and that's for the entire Bedford, MA complex that includes the corporate offices, so rent expense for the lab would be less than the total. That would leave 25 people making $344,000 to come to your $10 mm number. Unlikely. Again, where are you getting your assumptions? Also, who said anything about iSPHERE replacing TS? And finally, I believe UTHR said they're spending $500 mm on the plant in NC to be used for Tyvaso DPI? Clearly THE BOARD made the decision to explore the potential of iSPHERE. They have a lot more information than we do.
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Post by cretin11 on Jul 27, 2024 8:21:49 GMT -5
sayhey I don’t know about the “25 employees” thing until we get more clarity on it. But thank you for sharing your thought process behind that estimate/guess.
As for VGo opinions can differ, but evidence thus far favors your interpretation. Disaster might be too strong of a word but that’s semantics and a matter of degrees.
You know as much or more about diabetes than anyone on this forum so I appreciate your perspective on things. There’s no requirement that someone must always be “right” to post here. Different opinions and perspectives are welcome.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jul 27, 2024 9:28:58 GMT -5
cretin11 - nice job of adding some moderation. No offense intended to you or sayhey24, but I’m pretty sure there are several that post here that know more about diabetes than sayhey24 (and certainly more than me). I would include all of the insulin-using persons with diabetes in that group and of course there are a couple of apparent subject matter experts too. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, I love sayhey24s passionate out-of-the-box thinking. I could do with a little more independently verifiable references and a little more respectful language.
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Post by cretin11 on Jul 27, 2024 10:08:07 GMT -5
I probably should’ve said sayhey knows as much or more about diabetes than “most everyone” here. Because there are few who know more (correct that you and I are not in that group). I could’ve added sayhey has been involved with the MNKD story longer than almost everyone too.
sayhey is indeed passionate! As for respectful language, I am in that camp as well, but please note than some of the disrespectful language is aimed right at sayhey. It’s a social media message board forum, so it happens. It’s a judgment call when posts cross that line, and this forum is a haven of good behavior compared with the chaos of ST (for one example).
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Post by stella on Jul 27, 2024 12:01:00 GMT -5
I probably should’ve said sayhey knows as much or more about diabetes than “most everyone” here. Because there are few who know more (correct that you and I are not in that group). I could’ve added sayhey has been involved with the MNKD story longer than almost everyone too. sayhey is indeed passionate! As for respectful language, I am in that camp as well, but please note than some of the disrespectful language is aimed right at sayhey. It’s a social media message board forum, so it happens. It’s a judgment call when posts cross that line, and this forum is a haven of good behavior compared with the chaos of ST (for one example). Allow me to clear a few things up. My tongue-in-cheek response to sayhey24 about "being right" was not meant to be disrespectful. It was a direct response to his posts "I usually don't make things up. I could be wrong but I am usually not" and “I thought V-Go was a bad deal and I was right. This one kind of blows my mind. I am just waiting for Damon Dash to show back up.” He is clearly frustrated that Mike and the Board are pursuing a different strategy than the one he would pursue. So noted. His response to my earlier post was incredulous and snarky - "The PULM transaction was a cashless transaction" - are you kidding me? We are now paying salaries for 25 people plus facilities. Thats at least $10M a year and we get use of iSphere to replace Technosphere and then have to build a new factory to support this new technology.” I provided numbers that may refute his analysis. I’m still waiting on a response on the $10 million/25 people claim. Source? It’s fine to disparage past deals that haven’t worked out. But it seems many on this board disparage every deal this company makes. This deal hasn’t even closed and it’s already a bad deal. None of us knows what the board knows. Let’s see how it works out. And finally, I agree sayhey adds a tremendous amount of value to this board. His debates with agedhippie are epic and informative. He’s forgotten more about diabetes than I’ll ever know. He clearly has a long history with MNKD. I assume others on this board also have robust expertise/skillsets. I was a pharma/healthcare analyst on Wall Street for 25 years. We all bring different perspectives and opinions.
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Post by sayhey24 on Jul 27, 2024 13:21:34 GMT -5
I usually don't make things up. I could be wrong but I am usually not. Afrezza on Technosphere is the greatest advance in diabetes care in over 100 years. Some on this board would have had you believe otherwise and point at the 171 study A1c and say fact in point. Inhale-3 put an end to that if we - as Mango suggested - disregard those who were intentionally non-compliant. If Mike gets that done afrezza will show T1 A1c superiority. Pulmatrix has some kind of deal with Cipla. Maybe Cipla wants afrezza to use iSperse, IDK. Maybe they are already building an iSperse factory? Maybe iSperse is better for Clofazimine, IDK. How about we get Cipla to pay for some of this stuff. How many of the lab people MNKD "hires" we should get an update in a couple of weeks but for now 25 is a good number to use IMO. What we do know is we are hiring "some" until we get the official update in a couple of weeks. What I would like is an update on Inhale-2. What is Cipla doing with it. Hmmm. It must be really frustrating to be "right" about everything and not be able to do anything about it. I wish you had put on your suit and tie 8 years ago and interviewed for the MNKD CEO position. Our stock would be at $100 right now. On a serious note, please show us where your $10 mm/25 people numbers are coming from? I see total lease expense running $1.3-1.4 mm a year, and that's for the entire Bedford, MA complex that includes the corporate offices, so rent expense for the lab would be less than the total. That would leave 25 people making $344,000 to come to your $10 mm number. Unlikely. Again, where are you getting your assumptions? Also, who said anything about iSPHERE replacing TS? And finally, I believe UTHR said they're spending $500 mm on the plant in NC to be used for Tyvaso DPI? Clearly THE BOARD made the decision to explore the potential of iSPHERE. They have a lot more information than we do. Well, you said it was a no cash deal. Now you see its going to be more than $1, a lot more. I assumed PhD Research Scientists made some decent money but maybe they don't. Let assume $150k plus benefits or about $200k. Maybe we got lucky and this is only going to cost $5M a year but probably more. More important it is a distraction from MNKD getting insurance coverage for afrezza. You asked - "who said anything about iSPHERE replacing TS" The PR "The royalty-free licensing structure will allow MannKind to have exclusive use of the iSPERSE technology for clofazimine, NTM, and INSULIN" I did make a leap on my own thinking Cipla started the discussions but why? Maybe Inhale-2? Maybe it was MNKD's way of a non-compete with afrezza but I would have added Glp1s. What I do know is building another factory will be expensive. MNKD for me is an investment I made because I believed Al Mann. To date it has been my worst investment but I still believe Al was correct and I still think $100pps is very doable. In fact many years ago I said the value of MNKD was 100x that of DXCM. I could be wrong but I am not giving up yet. Many years ago my first company I took public I had to put up with all the whiny investors. IMO, if you can keep your ventures private all the better. Eight years ago I was just starting another venture which has worked out really well and led to a number of private companies. Being MNKD's CEO was not something which would have interested me. I surely was not going to LA and Danbury is a mess and why would I want to put up with whiny investors? As part of the deal I get to spend a lot of time on the beach a bit south of where Biden will be hanging out. Why he came off the beach four years ago still makes no sense to me. It would have been like becoming MNKD's CEO for me. Nope, I got another surfboard for this season and I want to see it put to good use.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jul 27, 2024 14:05:47 GMT -5
Now you’re cooking sayhey24. Your mention of cipla and iSPHERE earlier got me thinking. You ask “Why?” and I will speclate the answer is cost as compared to TS. I like this investment in the lab because I like MNKD looking beyond TS because they are a pipeline company and the more ways they can explore to leverage their expertise in inhalable drugs, the better. I think it is an eye’s open head’s up strategy. Partnering for trials makes a great deal of sense of course so I’m in agreement with you, and I was pleased to hear Mike say on the Juicebox podcast that MNKD was moving forward with a trial of Afrezza for gestational diabetes, and I’m hopeful that is with co-sponsors. We’ll see. MNKD has been my worst investment too, but I also remain very hopeful but it is because of the moves of MannKind management, not despite them.
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Post by sayhey24 on Jul 27, 2024 16:53:27 GMT -5
Now you’re cooking sayhey24 . Your mention of cipla and iSPHERE earlier got me thinking. You ask “Why?” and I will speclate the answer is cost as compared to TS. I like this investment in the lab because I like MNKD looking beyond TS because they are a pipeline company and the more ways they can explore to leverage their expertise in inhalable drugs, the better. I think it is an eye’s open head’s up strategy. Partnering for trials makes a great deal of sense of course so I’m in agreement with you, and I was pleased to hear Mike say on the Juicebox podcast that MNKD was moving forward with a trial of Afrezza for gestational diabetes, and I’m hopeful that is with co-sponsors. We’ll see. MNKD has been my worst investment too, but I also remain very hopeful but it is because of the moves of MannKind management, not despite them. Hey - if we were Abbott, I am fine with all this other stuff. MNKD has very limited funds and Steve Binder is gone. He is not going to pull another rabbit out of the hat. We are $20M in the hole after V-Go. There needs to be 100% focus on getting insurance coverage for afrezza. MNKD-101, 201 and the rest are years away and at this point a pipe dream. Afrezza insurance needs to be 100% of the focus. Get afrezza insurance and we have $20pps+. The gestational trial is great and MNKD is not even paying for it BUT MNKD should have done it years and years ago. Gestational will be great but the issue is afrezza costs too damn much and we have no insurance coverage. If Mike listens to Mango he will fix how Inhale-3 is reported and afrezza can claim T1 A1c superiority. Thats a big, no HUGE deal. Afrezza will outperform in gestational. Thats low hanging fruit which should have been done years ago. The kids trial is going to be outstanding but afrezza is still going to cost too damn much without insurance. The latest great news is icodec is not getting approved. Robert Ford was banking on it for the Libre hitting $4B in sales. Its not happening but afrezza for CGMs is the real deal. Good old Kevin has a huge problem at DXCM. Their pps was down 40% yesterday and I bet Kevin hopes the market does not open on Monday. The thing which can help both is afrezza in the Medicare space with no pre-auths and afrezza as Step 2 in the SoC. Robert and Kevin need to make that happen. Thats their best hope for CGM sales. Mike should have two new BFFs.
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