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Post by sportsrancho on Jul 29, 2024 19:50:10 GMT -5
Again, this is a true statement - The Standard Of Care does usefully (usually) influence writing of prescriptions. However this is not - all that is needed is to convince the consortium of folks that determine the SoC that Afrezza should be first in line for use at mealtime. To "convince" is not an easy task. This "convincing" not only takes trial data but it also takes political sway. It requires MNKD to overcome the lobbying of Big Pharm and BP does not want afrezza disrupting their $100M market. Bill from VDex suggested a 50k user base is the number needed to overcome their lobbying.Does Bill actually have experience working with the ADA SOC setting process, or is that merely his speculation? Seems they have spelled out criteria based on trial results and no indication that number of patients using a therapy is taken into account. Wonder how many patients VDex has on Afrezza. I assume they are targeting that portion of the patient population really wanting/willing to be especially attentive and trying to maximize results with a proactive approach. Hopefully at some point they would present some data on their results. It wouldn't be given the same weight as actual clinical trials, but could garner some attention. I can’t find that post. Do you have a link? Then I will ask him. I don’t believe we are targeting anybody, we’re just opening clinics in New Mexico, where there is a need. We get a lot of referrals there because people have seen our results. We are very involved with the community there, blood drives, etc. We have a Company newsletter that goes out every month to a large base. |
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Post by kc on Jul 29, 2024 20:34:46 GMT -5
I hope Martine announces the deal to acquire Mannkind during his call on July 31.
Stock deal valued $33.00 per share MNKD = 10% of current UTHR therapeutic price today.
Seems like a good value to me for shares in both Companies.
I would take an all stock deal from United therapeutics.
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Post by mymann on Jul 29, 2024 21:24:08 GMT -5
Sp today close $5.82. Stock price offer of $35, now that's rich. Ha ha.
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Post by ktim on Jul 30, 2024 8:59:42 GMT -5
Does Bill actually have experience working with the ADA SOC setting process, or is that merely his speculation? Seems they have spelled out criteria based on trial results and no indication that number of patients using a therapy is taken into account. Wonder how many patients VDex has on Afrezza. I assume they are targeting that portion of the patient population really wanting/willing to be especially attentive and trying to maximize results with a proactive approach. Hopefully at some point they would present some data on their results. It wouldn't be given the same weight as actual clinical trials, but could garner some attention. I can’t find that post. Do you have a link? Then I will ask him. I don’t believe we are targeting anybody, we’re just opening clinics in New Mexico, where there is a need. We get a lot of referrals there because people have seen our results. We are very involved with the community there, blood drives, etc. We have a Company newsletter that goes out every month to a large base. I guess a bit of presumption on my part, but I was assuming many of the people that end up with VDex are because they are unsatisfied with current results from treatment rather than newly diagnosed with diabetes. Those people deciding to switch doctors to improve results are making that decision because they are being proactive. Others might be willing to accept a sub-optimal A1c rather than the effort of changing, and thus never seek out VDex. So whether that is an official targeting, I suspect it is still a patient population that is selected (even if self selection) to be willing to put in the effort to learn and stick with changes to achieve superior results. The presumption on my part was that VDex might effectively be saying to patients through marketing "Hey, if you aren't achieving the sugar control you want, do something about it and come to VDex." That isn't meant to sound pejorative to VDex. It's great that there is an option where providers are willing to work with those that are desiring tighter control. But that also is a reason why results wouldn't be viewed in the same way as a randomized trial... because results from VDex would be comparing a patient population that took a proactive step to get better control, compared to the population that stick with their existing care, satisfied enough with their existing level of control. I think there is a possibility that clinical trials will always fall short of achieving what many think should be achievable with Afrezza... i.e. related to recent comment at ADA about Afrezza being suitable for some more than others. It may be the former that are more likely to be the ones walking through VDex' doors. |
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Post by ktim on Jul 30, 2024 9:08:04 GMT -5
I hope Martine announces the deal to acquire Mannkind during his call on July 31. Stock deal valued $33.00 per share MNKD = 10% of current UTHR therapeutic price today. Seems like a good value to me for shares in both Companies. I would take an all stock deal from United therapeutics. I think her board and shareholders would think it crazy rather than "good value". |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jul 30, 2024 9:18:13 GMT -5
If Martine had the elan of Elon, maybe the UTHR shareholders would be excited. Martine's got charisma, but yeah, more than 5x the current share price would need a really good picture painted and perhaps a hostile takeover.  |
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Post by cretin11 on Jul 30, 2024 9:21:17 GMT -5
I hope Martine announces the deal to acquire Mannkind during his call on July 31. Stock deal valued $33.00 per share MNKD = 10% of current UTHR therapeutic price today. Seems like a good value to me for shares in both Companies. I would take an all stock deal from United therapeutics. I think her board and shareholders would think it crazy rather than "good value". Agree, ktim. If we divide that buyout price by three, then it would be a more realistic scenario but still on the optimistic side and Martine’s board and shareholders would likely balk at such a high price. Fun to speculate though. |
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Post by letitride on Jul 30, 2024 11:37:23 GMT -5
I dont believe Martine has any interest in buying Mannkind. Profits are already phenomenal from TDPI. It seems most of the profits are being funneled directly back into organ research and production.
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Post by mpg54 on Jul 30, 2024 13:09:26 GMT -5
I dont believe Martine has any interest in buying Mannkind. Profits are already phenomenal from TDPI. It seems most of the profits are being funneled directly back into organ research and production. I’ll take a 2nd drug announcement with MNKD rather than a buyout, that would be just fine to me. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jul 30, 2024 13:40:38 GMT -5
I would like to hear Afrezza sales have jumped and had the best quarter ever. That Tyvaso DPI sales were up substantially, and that manufacturing and collaboration was steady. I don't care about V-Go. I'd like to hear about progress on the Phase 2/3 trial for clofazimine, and the Phase 1 trial for nintedanib (Ofev DPI anybody?). I'd like an update on Cipla and India, the new trial for gestational diabetes for Afrezza, and the pediatric trial. Finally, I'd like to hear more about the Pulmatrix deal. If MannKind would like to sneak in a new international filing for Afrezza, that would be icing on the cake.
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Post by letitride on Jul 30, 2024 13:47:06 GMT -5
Speaking of buyouts I could see Lilly taking out UTHR and just to make it a clean sweep grabs MNKD for Afrezza to finish the job.
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Post by ktim on Jul 30, 2024 18:38:50 GMT -5
We really need to revive a thread about buyout speculation. That was so much fun back in the day. I think AAPL was going to buy us at one point. It's much better if we have multiple companies getting in a bidding war. Surely Lilly isn't the only company currently planning to take us over.  |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jul 31, 2024 6:33:06 GMT -5
I don’t really like the idea of a buyout. Not at current market cap. Would MNKD shareholders approve a $12/share buyout offer? That’s about what they could expect. I remember before I joined ProBoards, Kevinmik on Yahoo! would preach buyout like a gong. That was several years ago. What was mentioned back then was that Al Mann was once asked about buyouts and he reportedly said he would never sell another company for less than 10x what he had in it, and the corrolary that he had over $1B invested in MannKind, so the math works out to greater than $10B. That might have held had Al Mann lived (he would be over 100 years old now) or if the Mann Group had maintained(?) a controlling interest (but not sure if they had that). Anyway, a $10B buyout would require a 9x multiplier on the current share price. I don’t see any way a company interested in acquiring MNKD would agree to such a premium. $10B is just a number but its a number that stuck in my head because I want valuation of Al Mann’s namesake to match what he said he would require.
That’s just sentiment which is worth what you’re paying to read it. Beyond the sentiment of reverence for the founder, the more tangible reason I don’t like talking about buyout is I believe MannKind can believably achieve a greater than $10B market cap by executing on their stated business plans. They may exceed that goal by bringing clofazimine, and nintedanib to market to add to the revenue they earn from Tyvaso DPI and Afrezza. That is a good reason to not want a buyout at this time. Thankfully, I do not believe there is any threat of a buyout. I certainly hope not.
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Post by radgray68 on Jul 31, 2024 12:29:28 GMT -5
MannKind stands to make over a $Billion a year from T-DPI royalties alone if UTHR gets to half of their goal. Surely our other products can get to a billion a year with just Afrezza, Clofaz and Nintendo.
Now, it may take 5 years but I can wait. Divide $2 Billion by our share count and slap any multiple you want. It’s bound to be bigger than any figures discussed here lately.
You’re right, though. We probably should start a new “Buyout” Thread. Remember that one gal swore up and down Roche was interested? great fun.
My vote is for Boehringer Ingelheim.
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Post by sayhey24 on Jul 31, 2024 16:50:23 GMT -5
MannKind stands to make over a $Billion a year from T-DPI royalties alone if UTHR gets to half of their goal. Surely our other products can get to a billion a year with just Afrezza, Clofaz and Nintendo. Now, it may take 5 years but I can wait. Divide $2 Billion by our share count and slap any multiple you want. It’s bound to be bigger than any figures discussed here lately. You’re right, though. We probably should start a new “Buyout” Thread. Remember that one gal swore up and down Roche was interested? great fun. My vote is for Boehringer Ingelheim. Get afrezza insurance; a great Inhale-3 superiority result; kids approval; gestational approval; the inhale-2 showing the 1.5 to 2.0 A1c reduction; and a positive afrezza/glp1 adder trial and we should be looking at $5B in afrezza alone. Once afrezza has insurance without pre-auths Abbott and DXCM can sell afrezza into the Medicare market so they can sell their CGMs. |
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