T-DPI Predictions Q2

[cppoly]

Thoughts on the numbers for tomorrow?

Also hoping UTHR can shed some light on how LQDA has been impacted and give an update on their purgatory status.

[casualinvestor]

UTHR's recent run (275->339) started in mid-june. There was a conference of some kind at that time, but the news from the conference wasn't good enough to spark what we've seen (IMO). So I'm predicting +20-25% T-DPI sales over Q1 2024, going off the assumption that prescription info has leaked and is very good.

I'd like to see an update on the IPF trial.

We really don't have a MNKD earnings date yet? Odd

[neil36]

Three Months Ended

March 31, Dollar

                                                                    Dollar        Percent
Net product sales:        2024           2023        Change      Increase
Tyvaso DPI®                $ 227.5     $ 118.7     $108.8         92 %

Nebulized Tyvaso®(1)   $ 145.0     $ 119.7      $25.3         21 %

Total Tyvaso                 $372.5      $238.4     $134.1         56 %


Hard to guess where tomorrow's numbers will come in, but here are the key numbers from UTHR's report from last quarter.  DPI represented 61% of total Tyvaso sales.  Will be interesting how much increase there was in total Tyvaso sales, and if DPI's share of those sales is more than 61%.

On a longer-term perspective, DPI sales need to be above $1.9 billion ($475 million average per quarter) for a rolling twelve-month period in order to qualify for the $50 million royalty sale milestone.  Tomorrow's numbers will add one more data point to help us visualize the slope of the trendline.

[ktim]

Is there any information regarding Tyvaso DPI formulary coverage vs Nebulized Tyvaso, and whether that is still work in progress for DPI?

[Clement]

I'm guessing $270M in T-DPI revs for Q2. That's due to better Medicare reimbursement in 2024. Also, UTHR has a good sales strategy at play, appealing to ILD patients to find out if they have PH and if suspected, get it documented because now there's a medication that can help. (Banner ads to that effect show here on ProBoards occasionally.)

mnkd.proboards.com/post/266786/thread