2024 - 2025 -2026

[ronw77077]

Now that  Q2 is done, I thought I would take a stab at looking further out.  I have removed the Clofazimine I erroneously included in my last long term projection.  However, I now make assumptions for PEDS revenue.  Of course, I have no real basis for quantifying the timing or amount of such PEDS revenue so I have used a WAG of 10% of the market in 2025 and 20% in 2026 so that we can see the prospective impact.  I presume we may see revenue from the expanded UTHR revenue in 2026 but have not put forth any numbers for such.

All observations and thoughts welcomed.

2023 Actual

                    Q1         Q2         Q3         Q4         Yr

Afrezza         12.4     13.5       13.5        15.5        54.9

V-Go             5.1        4.8         4.5         4.7         19.1

Tyvaso         11.3     11.2        13.1        21.0        56.7

Coll/Svcs     11.7     19.1        20.2        17.2         68.2

Total Rev.     40.5     48.6       51.2        58.5       198.8





2024

                     Q1        Q2         Q3         Q4         Yr         2025         2026

Afrezza        14.4      16.3       18.7      21.6      71.0         88.8         125.0

PEDS                                                                           150.0         300.0

V-Go             4.3       4.5         4.4        4.3      17.5          17.5           17.5

Tyvaso         22.7     25.6       29.2       33.6    111.0        155.5         217.6

Coll/Svcs      24.8    26.0       29.6       34.1    114.5        150.0         159.0

Tyvaso-Teton                                                                                   

Total Rev.  66.2     72.4       82.0       93.5     314.1       561.7         819.2

WITHOUT PEDS                                                           411.7



2025

Tyvaso assumptions for 2025 - based on $30 mil increase in sales each qtr

Assume Afrezza base sales increase 25% over 2024

[ktim]

Your 2024 seems optimistic but possible. Peds estimates seem a bit disjoint from reality. The one chart MNKD showed with anticipated contribution from peds is maybe $60M at best in 2026.

[prcgorman2]

Using $60M from pediatric sales for Afrezza in 2025 yields $148.8M YE and Tyvaso DPI $155.5M YE (not incl C&S).

What does the EPS look like?

[ktim]

You mean 2026 instead of 2025?

[prcgorman2]

No. More proof I should slow down and read more carefully. Your post said 2026, and I read 2025. My bad.

[ktim]

Maybe a Freudian slip

I'd love your version to come to pass.

[Clement]

I would like to guess at full year 2024. First, here's my estimate for Q3 2024:

Royalties       29
Coll & Svcs    27
Afrezza         18
VGo               4

Total           $78M

For Q4 I will continue the theme of adding $6M. So my guess for Q4 is $84M.

Adding up the 4 quarters in 2024, we get 66 + 72 + 78 + 84 = $300M for the full year 2024.

Notably, that's more than 50% increase over full year 2023.  And that's without any kick from peds, clofaz, ninte, or India.

[ktim]

Coll & Svcs might underperform compared to recent quarters.

The current "consensus" from analysts is just $280M. I think reasonable chance revenue will be closer to your number than to $280M.