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Post by tarheelblue004 on Oct 28, 2024 19:57:30 GMT -5
I think we’ll grow to at least $76m in quarterly revenue, with Tyvaso DPI making up most of the increase. Earnings of $0.06 will double analyst estimates of $0.03. Post-ADA bump in Afrezza script writing would be upside. We’ll know more after UT’s earnings on Wednesday!
Other thoughts?
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Post by ktim on Oct 28, 2024 21:08:24 GMT -5
If there is actually real script writing increase... not just price increase and mix resulting in higher revenue... and it's enough to quantify on earnings call that would be huge. I wouldn't recommend holding one's breath for that.
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Post by porkini on Oct 28, 2024 21:47:29 GMT -5
If there is actually real script writing increase... not just price increase and mix resulting in higher revenue... and it's enough to quantify on earnings call that would be huge. I wouldn't recommend holding one's breath for that. Also not selling any shares on that either. |
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Post by tarheelblue004 on Oct 30, 2024 9:39:34 GMT -5
Based on today's news from UT, I am staying put at $76m revenue, $0.06 EPS for MannKind's 3Q 2024 earnings. parrerob ronw77077 what are you thinking? |
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Post by parrerob on Oct 30, 2024 10:36:47 GMT -5
Hi Tarheelblue (004) Looking at Q3 results published today from UTHR and thinking about MNKD Q2 results We will have $2m more on revenues from Tyvaso DPI.... We should have $1.5m more on collaborations (even if here it is more a bid then math) Then I strongly hope Afrezza will bring $1.5m+ more (against Q2) So my bet is around $77m EPS $ 0.6 is too much imo..... I bet on 0.3 (hope on 0.4) From Yahoo: EPS: high = 0.04; low = 0.02 media = 0.03 Revenues; high = 78; low = 68; media = 74 Edit Corrected from 76 to 77..... 72.4 + 2 + 1.5 + 1.5 =77.4 Edit2 Corrected the way to write $$$ values (I am in Italy and I was not aware of using $XXXm instead of XXXXm$ like we normally use in Italy)  Changed also the comma " , " with ". " for decimals............  |
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Post by ronw77077 on Oct 30, 2024 12:34:55 GMT -5
Afrezza increased from 14.4 in Q1 to 16.3 in Q2- up 13%. A 13% increase in Q3 would get us 18.4 I expect there will be some bump from the ADA presentations so I project Afrezza at 18.7 for Q3 (though this could well be conservative).
Royalties will be 27.5 as we know.
Big question is Coll & Svcs. The combined MNKD rev from UTRH of 51.6 in Q2 was 68% of UTHR's COS (being 75.9). Using the same approach in Q3, 68% of UTHR's COS of 81.8 is $55.6. If this turns out to be correct, since we know the royalty portion is 27.5, I deduce the Coll & Svcs number is 28.1.
So, I add the pieces up as:
Afrezza 18.7
V-go 4.4
Rylty 27.5
Coll/Svcs 28.1
Total 78.7
We see soon!
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Post by veritasfiliatemporis on Oct 30, 2024 13:01:29 GMT -5
Royalties will be 27.5 - 10% 24.75
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Post by ronw77077 on Oct 30, 2024 13:25:22 GMT -5
Technically correct but incomplete. MNKD amortizes the deferred portion of the Sagard payment resulting in 10% royalty being recognized. The specifics are"
The Company will continue to recognize the full 10% of future royalty revenues in its condensed consolidated statements of operations, with the Sagard Royalty being non-cash revenue for the Company. As royalty payments are earned by and remitted to Sagard, the balance of the Royalty Liability will be effectively repaid as it is amortized over the life of the PSA. To amortize the Royalty Liability, the Company estimated the total amount of future royalty payments to be made to Sagard over the life of the PSA. The excess of those future estimated royalty payments over the Purchase Price proceeds received is recognized in the condensed consolidated statements of operations as non-cash interest expense over the life of the PSA utilizing an imputed effective interest rate.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Oct 31, 2024 19:28:37 GMT -5
Royalties will be 27.5 - 10% 24.75 That is the result, but that is not how it is reported in the income statement and balance sheet. (I didn’t follow the excellent detail shared by ronw77077, but I got the drift, I think.) |
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Post by Clement on Nov 1, 2024 7:29:26 GMT -5
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Post by Thundersnow on Nov 1, 2024 9:42:59 GMT -5
Afrezza increased from 14.4 in Q1 to 16.3 in Q2- up 13%. A 13% increase in Q3 would get us 18.4 I expect there will be some bump from the ADA presentations so I project Afrezza at 18.7 for Q3 (though this could well be conservative). Royalties will be 27.5 as we know. Big question is Coll & Svcs. The combined MNKD rev from UTRH of 51.6 in Q2 was 68% of UTHR's COS (being 75.9). Using the same approach in Q3, 68% of UTHR's COS of 81.8 is $55.6. If this turns out to be correct, since we know the royalty portion is 27.5, I deduce the Coll & Svcs number is 28.1. So, I add the pieces up as: Afrezza 18.7
V-go 4.4
Rylty 27.5
Coll/Svcs 28.1
Total 78.7
We see soon!Didn't the CFO say at HC Wainwright that C&S will start to decline because all necessary services have been concluded and more focus should be on royalties. Be careful with your assumptions. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Nov 1, 2024 12:36:20 GMT -5
It has been mentioned more than once that Collaboration and Services included revenue tied to improving manufacturing capacity and that those would eventually be completed and C&S would reduce accordingly. I agree that there's a pretty big question mark on that portion of the total revenue for the quarter. Unfortunately, there wasn't strong guidance about timing in terms of which quarter. I think there was some guidance on the relative impact in terms of quantity of revenue but I don't remember what that was. There is also the possibility that more things come up and get added.
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Post by casualinvestor on Nov 1, 2024 12:57:33 GMT -5
It has been mentioned more than once that Collaboration and Services included revenue tied to improving manufacturing capacity and that those would eventually be completed and C&S would reduce accordingly. I agree that there's a pretty big question mark on that portion of the total revenue for the quarter. Unfortunately, there wasn't strong guidance about timing in terms of which quarter. I think there was some guidance on the relative impact in terms of quantity of revenue but I don't remember what that was. There is also the possibility that more things come up and get added. My take on that is: Money for manufacturing+ is paid soon after the product is delivered. But royalties wait for product to be sold and UTHR gets paid. Which means that the 2 years worth of product that UTHR wanted to have stocked in various places had been delivered and paid for with manufacturing+. The process of getting that 2 years of inventory stocked has made the manufacturing revenue larger than it will be going forward. |
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Post by Clement on Nov 1, 2024 13:09:21 GMT -5
^ "revenue tied to improving manufacturing capacity"
The money (from UTHR to MNKD) to pay for more and improved manufacturing equipment goes into deferred revenue. Deferred revenue is then "recognized" (added to C&S) over a long period of time. This category will not cause large short term variations in C&S.
But manufacturing cost-per-unit can decrease as efficiencies result from improving the manufacturing process. So, with increasing units being sold yet at lower cost, the "cost of manufacture" component of C&S can go flat. But that is a separate category within C&S.
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Post by peppy on Nov 1, 2024 13:23:12 GMT -5
^ "revenue tied to improving manufacturing capacity" The money (from UTHR to MNKD) to pay for more and improved manufacturing equipment goes into deferred revenue. Deferred revenue is then "recognized" (added to C&S) over a long period of time. This category will not cause large short term variations in C&S. But manufacturing cost-per-unit can decrease as efficiencies result from improving the manufacturing process. So, with increasing units being sold yet at lower cost, the "cost of manufacture" component of C&S can go flat. But that is a separate category within C&S. UTHR reported an increase in the charged price of Tyvasso DPI on their earnings report. |
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