Nov 20

[Deleted]

Am I drinking too much of the kool aid or are we seeing the shift higher, and is Nov 20 a bigger catalyst than some realize?

I mean we've had a flash crash, nearly a hit piece a day, and even "analysts" jumping into the fray with this stock.

Meanwhile, since the low on Oct 12, MNKD has increased over 27% in 3 weeks, slowed down by bashes by AF, Karp, and even GS.

Short Interest will be released today, and I believe most of the institutional reporting is due in this week thru Sept 30.

Will we see a decrease in SI?
A substantive increase in Tute Ownership?
Have the shorts finally exhausted their ammo and has the wind down of their positions begun?
Does Nov20 mark a point where marketing plans will be communicated and even sales expectations hinted at?

It just feels like theres some uncomfortability going on right now in the short corner.

Thoughts?

[brentie]

MannKind Clears the Hurdle (MNKD)


MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ:MNKD) has chipped away for nearly a month, and finally made a real breakthrough today.


If you're gun-shy to step into a MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ:MNKD) position, you're not alone. The 58% pullback MNKD shares suffered between late June and mid-October is daunting, especially knowing the selloff started in the shadow of what should have been the best news the company was ever able to tout...it's inhaled insulin Afrezza was finally approved after a ten-year ordeal.


Nothing lasts forever though, and it may be time to bet on MannKind Corporation rather than against it.


To be clear, this is 100% a technical call. That's not to say the underlying opportunity isn't fundamentally based. The chart of MNKD has been disconnected from the underlying company's value for months though, and the reason the stock is a buy now is almost entirely because shares are finally synching up again with MannKind - the company - and traders are saying they're falling back in love with the company and the stock.


The chart below tells the tale. The stock got pummeled between July and September, but on October 13th the stock quietly went through a transition from a net-bearish to a net-bullish environment; the pivot was marked by a small doji bar, and the next day we saw a high volume bullish follow-through to get the ball rolling with some gusto.


It's what's happened with MannKind Corporation in the meantime, however, that's really sealed the deal. After balking at the 50-day moving average line (purple) in late October and then peeling back - and probably spooking a few shareholders in the process - the 20-day moving average line (blue) stepped up to the plate as a support line and prodded another attempt to clear the 50-day moving average line. And this time around, it worked. MNKD has officially crossed above the 50-day moving average line today, and there's little left to hold it back now.


Where MannKind might stop rallying is anyone's guess, but a return trip back to $11.00 - and maybe even higher - isn't out of the question. Just keep it on a short leash, and look for the red flags of toppiness.



www.smallcapnetwork.com/MannKind-Clears-the-Hurdle-MNKD/s/via/1789/article/view/p/mid/1/id/500/

[kc]

Good read.

[bradleysbest]

There are a lot of smart people who know the science & potential of Afrezza/Technosphere. Once the train starts taking off there will be tons of people hopping aboard! Can't wait!

[BlueCat]

Ah. This thread is a breath of fresh air. Thank you.

[mnholdem]

Consider this, folks: a little more than a year ago, I had never heard of MannKind. I had never heard the name Alfred E. Mann either. I knew nothing of diabetes.

Nowadays I find myself reading research about early intensive insulin therapy to validate Mr. Mann's comment of how studies have demonstrated Afrezza can lead to remission (yes, remission) of diabetes mellitus. I've studied his business profile and the growing global diabetes threat/market.

My point? I would not be surprised at all if less than 1 of 1,000 who invest in the stock market have never heard of MannKind or Afrezza.

I know from comments made in interviews with him since 2009 that Al Mann wants to heavily push Afrezza as THE new first line treat of treatment for early stage diabetes, completely changing the decades-old medical standard that Medformin should be prescribed first.

Perhaps this is why Sanofi has clearly indicated that they will be targeting pre- and early-stage T2 (the "Lost Decade"). As results from thousands of patients are compiled and examined, Sanofi and MannKind will have the evidence to support what the studies (and Al) are proposing. Afrezza is the ideal choice for first line treatment and can mitigate long-term damage, and prove that intensive insulin therapy can result in remission by giving the pancreas "a rest" and enabling the regeneration of insulin-producing beta cells before they are damaged beyond repair. Studies using intravenous testing have proven it works, but IV therapy isn't marketable. An inhalable insulin, one that rapidly gets human insulin into and then quickly evacuates a diabetic's blood stream, is very marketable.

Sanofi cannot market using the word "remission" but you can bet that they'll be encouraging medical science publications by 3rd party diabetes researchers to be renewing their advocacy for early intensive insulin therapy AND for advocating more accurate measurement than a1c be employed to treat this disease.

Finally, you may be asking yourself why early insulin therapy hasn't gained traction when diabetes researchers have been advocated the therapy for 15 years. I know that I was puzzled by it. It turns out that the answer was that there wasn't an insulin available that could sufficiently match the pharmacokinetic profile of a healthy pancreas, which is essential for the therapy to be effective.

Today there is an insulin available that does just that... emulate a healthy pancrease. It's called Afrezza and it becomes available for patients soon.

Perhaps in a few years the word "remission" will be published. We'll see. For now, the simple fact of the matter is that most of the stock market - and general public - has never heard of Afrezza, MannKind or Alfred E Mann.

MannKind visibility will change dramatically in the coming years, as I have read nothing to indicate that Afrezza is not a game changer. Other Technosphere innovations will further increase this company's visibility and thusands of investors will take a look at MNKD for the very first time. Just like I did a little over a year ago.

Good fortune all.

[Deleted]

Nov 15, 2014 7:57:40 GMT -5 mnholdem said:

 
Nowadays I find myself reading research about early intensive insulin therapy to validate Mr. Mann's comment of how studies have demonstrated Afrezza can lead to remission (yes, remission) of diabetes mellitus. I've studied his business profile and the growing global diabetes threat/market.

Diet alone MAY prevent Type II Diabetes and reverse the early onset of the disease. It involves greatly reducing or eliminating refined sugar, refined grain (most baked goods) and starch from the diet and replacing them with fruits, veggies and high fiber foods. Meat, fish and eggs remain. Weight loss to a target of BMI 23 is also a breeze with this diet. But it is not actually a "diet" as much as a permanent life style change. For details see:

www.amazon.com/Glycemic-Load-Diet-powerful-reversing-resistance/dp/0071462694/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1416058390&sr=8-1&keywords=Glycemic+Load+Diet

[mnholdem]

I agree that dietary and lifestyle change (i.e. regular exercising) is best. Yet the diabetic population continues to increase, indicating that only a small percentage are heeding that advice. The "ah, give me something to fix this" mentality prevails. It's like switching to diet soda but still wolfing down that Monster Burger and fries.

The glucose control offered by Afrezza will appeal to people who like to eat.

[spiro]

i've read so much about diabetes treatment the past several years, that I feel like I could open up a diabetic treatment clinic and be the Chief Medical Quack in charge. But of course Dr. Spiro would only prescribe Afrezza. If the patient wanted something else, they would have to find another Quack for treatment.

[Deleted]

Nov 15, 2014 8:54:38 GMT -5 mnholdem said:

I agree that dietary and lifestyle change (i.e. regular exercising) is best. Yet the diabetic population continues to increase, indicating that only a small percentage are heeding that advice. The "ah, give me something to fix this" mentality prevails. It's like switching to diet soda but still wolfing down that Monster Burger and fries.

The glucose control offered by Afrezza will appeal to people who like to eat.

One can eat all they want with the low carb, high fiber diet and also avoid feeling sleepy all day long.  Forget the health benefits, can you imagine the increase of productivity that would result from millions of people feeling alert at work if they followed this:

www.wikihow.com/Avoid-Feeling-Drowsy-After-Lunch

[sportsrancho]

Being a personal trainer I know that 95% of people gain the weight back that they lose with in a few years. Being addicted to carbs is worse than being addicted to alcohol. Because you have to eat. They are medicating themselves with carbs. Therapy is needed along with diet changes. Most people do what's easiest. I hear all the excuses in the book! You have to change the way you think first before you can stick to a diet change. Most will take Afrezza and eat what they want! Very long MNKD! sports

[kc]

I agree with all the comments above especially Lee Anne. at age 55 I am additcted to carbs and put the weight on and take it off. None of us have the willpower to deal with a healthy diet until its too late. Then instead of dealing with diet they settle to take insulin shots or hopefully Afrezza as a first step. I try to stay fit and run but fight the weight. I know that my Dr. will say to either drop 40lbs or I have problems. My brother who is 4 years older has been told he has probems and does have health issues. but yet he doesn't change his habits and gets no exercise. American's are fat dumb and complacent and need that RX to save them from themselves.

[mnholdem]

Which brings us back to intensive insulin therapy. If all I cared about as an investor is money, I'd downplay this particular therapy, because it's only used for a short period of time if successful. If successful, insulin is no longer needed... unless the patient continues with the lifestyle that got them into trouble.

But this early intensive insulin therapy does have the potential to revolutionize diabetes treatment if it catches on.

[Deleted]

Looks like it's gonna get hairy this week. I'm looking at puts on Friday, expiring next Friday. Someone took out a $1,000,000 bearish bet with 2500 $10 puts at $3.88 and straddled it with some hedge with 2500 $10 calls at a penny.

Expect that a major hit piece comes out along with a massive bear raid. Might be the last ditched effort. I'm just curious if it will be a pre or post nov 20 event

[dreamboatcruise]

Nov 15, 2014 19:20:25 GMT -5 mnholdem said:

Which brings us back to intensive insulin therapy. If all I cared about as an investor is money, I'd downplay this particular therapy, because it's only used for a short period of time if successful. If successful, insulin is no longer needed... unless the patient continues with the lifestyle that got them into trouble.

But this early intensive insulin therapy does have the potential to revolutionize diabetes treatment if it catches on.

But an awful lot of people don't have the ability to change their lifestyle.  It would be great if they did, but I'm not putting that on my list of risks for my Mannkind position.  I would suspect that at best it just delays the disease as someone has it go into remission, they eat properly for some short period of time and then revert back to old habits... perhaps repeating that process until finally the remissions don't happen and they have to be on insulin from then on.  I wouldn't hope that happens but I'm pretty sure human nature works that way.  I feel very blessed that I have never had these issues with eating, but I also realize it likely is due to something fortunate in my genetic makeup.