Sanofi CC - Act like you've been there before!

[babaoriley]

Cuz you have!

No getting giddy prior to that call - think back to what giddy get us! 

What's propelling this stock?  Anticipation of the call?  Short covering?  Institution buying?  I doubt it's we posters (aren't most of us all-in and/or tapped out or finally share satiated and saturated?).

Get ready for the negative spin that will accompany that call, you know it will be there.  It hasn't worked so well for the shorts lately, but if they are given some arguably legitimate fodder, they might make a case to scare people off, at least temporarily. 

I'm hoping for a business like mention of Afrezza as a drug that they are excited to add to their portfolio, look forward to launching in early 2015, and are confident will augment their top and bottom lines for several years.  I don't anticipate them saying it's great, the best drug ever, the biggest selling drug of all time, etc.  And I refuse to be disappointed if they don't say such things as Al Mann might have said.  But I will be disappointed if I cannot come away objectively from the presentation knowing that, in Sanofi's mind, Afrezza will be an important part of their wares starting next year.

[itrade]

I agree! Having high expectations for these events may lead to troubled emotions/another sleepless night.

[dreamboatcruise]

Sage advice for MNKD. Will try to maintain a somber, pessimistic tone. We need to set our expectations low so as to not be disappointed. Personally I will call it a success if the presenter remembers how to pronounce Afrezza and avoids wringing his hands shouting "why did we do this deal?"

(Note: I think I'm being sarcastic)

[babaoriley]

Or how about, "we negotiated such a great deal for us with MNKD, we're actually looking to sell our interest in the deal to Pfizer."

Whatever it is, be ready, and if the stock should drop based on unfair hit pieces post cc, then by all means be ready to buy stock or sell puts the next morning!!

[orlon]

I want to hear this: Production has started and orders are already rolling in, in anticipation of our early January rollout. Anyone remember Monty Python's Life of Brian? The end song...Always look on the bright side of life...then whistle if you can  be positive and just don't read the tripe put out by Kliff, AF, or Karpov.

[mnholdem]

What with the cold water that former CEO Veihmacher threw on Sanofi's 2015 forecast in their diabetes division, I would think Sanofi would want to present their Toujeo and Afrezza launches in a manner that builds investor confidence. Not giddy, just giddyup... and GO!!!

[obamayoumama]

The shorts are going to state the following:

Afrezza didn't get top billing
SNY will drop AFREZZA as soon as the new CEO comes in.
The reason AFREZZA was mentioned is that SNY didn't have time to change the presentation.
Afrezza isn't going to be covered by insurance because insurance coverage wasn't mentioned in the presentation.
Etc.

[spiro]

Every analyst present at this presentation already knows that Sanofi would not have entered into a $1billion deal with MNKD to partner Afrezza, unless Sanofi felt that it would become a multi-billion dollar a year drug. Clearly Sanofi will need to expand on the merits of this deal. We all know that could be done in 5 minutes with a couple of charts. That is unless Sanofi asks Hakan, Matt, or Al to present Afrezza to the group. Now that's a scary thought.

[pmikeks]

Spiro- Al would probably be ok but the other two not so much. I'm expecting a very moderate presentation concerning Afrezza because they don't want to seem too optimistic 'for competitive reasons and no doubt shorts ala Cramer and AF will make something out of that. We can only keep our fingers crossed and hope for the best until sales start rolling in. I appreciate your ongoing insight.

[EveningOfTheDay]

I actually think that Sanofi will repeat what they have already said at different times, but perhaps in a more formal setting. Basically all that about the lost decade, the pre diabetic market, the kinetics and the matching with Toujeo. I do not expect a lot of new information, and definitely do not expect the march band and the balloons. Perhaps moderate optimistic statements, which, no doubt, will be misinterpreted and twisted to suit specific agendas. Of course, I am being guarded for self preservation purposes. I will not dare to hope too much until I see sales numbers coming out. Only then, if apropriate, I might start planning on opening a bottle of Dom Perignon. And yes, I hope the presentation is by someone a bit more eloquent than Hakan or Matt, but then again they probably did not get hired because their ability to sway people with their rhetoric... actually, please can someone remind me again what is that Hakan does?

By the way, I have a question for the board. Generally speaking lower volume would allow shorts to manipulate the stock more easily, but given that there has been nearly no shares available to short, and that volumes through out the recent spike in the price have remain really low, would it be wrong for me to think this would make it more difficult for shorts to gain a lot of traction in a raid or to keep sustained volatility? Thanks in advance for any insight.

[ezrasfund]

IMO 5 million shares is not low volume. In fact I think most of the activity represents high frequency day trading. Net-net 5 million shares did not change hands today, not even close. My thought is at this price and with a partner in place high trading volume has allowed too many shares to be accumulated by long term investors and institutions, which is why the short interest keeps getting bigger, and why traders trying to take the price down have backed off. One would think that the money made from $10.50 to under $5 would allow the shorts to take some off the table, as there is less to be made from $5 to $1 or wherever the stock might fall in a worst case scenario.

Sometimes I wonder if all the shares being traded are those 70 million shares short being shuttled back and forth, and virtually the entire float is tied up in long term holdings.

Of course I do not think MNKD will end up like DNDN, because Afrezza is a drug with much more promise than Provenge. And remember, no one knows more about Exubera than Sanofi as they owned it and helped develop it. They obviously knew more about it than Pfizer, which got left holding the bag.

[suebeeee1]

I do wish everyone would just pretend that there is no cc. We haven't recovered where we were and my guess is the day after the call, it will drop the same percentage. Shush!

[suebeeee1]

I think this is the only stock that makes me nervous when it goes UP!

[EveningOfTheDay]

Nov 18, 2014 22:42:49 GMT -5 suebeeee1 said:

I think this is the only stock that makes me nervous when it goes UP!

Ah yes, when it comes to the little ironies of the long investors life, MNKD exemplifies it as no other.

[rak5555]

I think SNY will tell their investors just enough so that they can say they were transparent when Afrezza is a major component of revenue growth next year. Otherwise, I believe they are slow rolling their competitors w/ this launch, thus causing them to dedicate fewer resources to counteract the marketing blitz that is coming.