Sanofi Outlines Next Wave of Innovative Medicines and Vaccin

[gwb]

Expecting 30 BILLION $ in five years for 18 launches , including Afrezza !

en.sanofi.com/investors/events/corporate/2014/2014-11-20_IR_Seminar_NMD.aspx

 Diabetes:
 Toujeo® (insulin glargine [rDNA origin] injection, 300 U/mL): A new investigational basal
insulin currently under review by the US and EU regulatory agencies.*
 Afrezza® (insulin human): A new, FDA-approved, rapid-acting inhaled insulin therapy
for adults with type 1 and type 2 diabetes.
 Lixilan: An investigational fixed-ratio combination of insulin glargine, the leading basal
insulin, with lixisenatide, a GLP-1 receptor agonist, in a single daily injection for the
treatment of adults with type 2 diabetes.
 Vaccines:
 Dengue Vaccine: Sanofi Pasteur’s dengue vaccine candidate with demonstrated
efficacy across all dengue serotypes and a favorable safety profile in two landmark
phase 3 studies, after 25 months active surveillance period. Regulatory submissions are
planned in 2015.*
 Immunology & Inflammation:
 Sarilumab: An investigational fully human monoclonal antibody targeting the IL-6
receptor (IL-6R) - developed in collaboration with Regeneron - currently being studied in
patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA).*
 Dupilumab: An investigational fully human monoclonal antibody that blocks IL-4 and IL-
13 signaling - developed in collaboration with Regeneron - entered into phase 3 in adults
with moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis. Positive results were also recently announced
with dupilumab also in phase 2b in adult patients with uncontrolled, moderate-to-severe
asthma and in phase 2a in chronic sinusitis with nasal polyps.*
“Sanofi’s global R&D teams have created an impressive dynamic that leverages internal talents and
open innovation to develop an industry-leading pipeline,” said Elias Zerhouni, MD, President, Global
Research and Development, Sanofi. “Sanofi has the potential to launch up to six new medicines in
2015 and approximately one new medicine every six months between 2016 and 2018. These new
medicines have the potential to help address significant areas of need in rare diseases,
cardiovascular care, diabetes, immunology and public health.”
The presentation in Boston will demonstrate Sanofi’s opportunity to generate sustainable growth
driven by the solid momentum of its growth platforms and the expected accelerated sales
contribution of its late-stage R&D pipeline. In Diabetes, despite the potential impact of the US basal
insulin market dynamics on Lantus® sales, Sanofi expects its global Diabetes sales to be flat to
slightly growing from 2015 – 2018.4 This assumes a substantial conversion of patients from
Lantus® to Toujeo® in the U.S. and Europe, continued growth of its diabetes products in Emerging
Markets, the U.S. launches of Affreza®, Lyxumia® and LixiLan. The launch of new medicines and
vaccines in other therapeutic areas and the sustained performance of Sanofi’s other growth
platforms is expected to continue to further reduce the relative contribution of Lantus® to the
Group's overall performance.
Sanofi’s IR Thematic Seminar on New Medicines will be held today, Thursday November 20, 2014
and it will begin at 8.30 EST / 13.30 GMT concluding at 13.00 EST/ 18.00 GMT

[ashiwi]

That's 30 billion Euros which is closer to 40 billion $. A number of the drugs mentioned are not even approved yet which leaves a lot of the pie for Afrezza.

[Deleted]

Read the note. It's all drugs in the first five years of their launch, including Toujeo. If total diabetes sales will be flat to slightly positive through 2018, then you're looking at 7bil in sales per year, and if toujeo will "substantially replace lantus" then the "pie" remaining for afrezza is much smaller. If you assume "substantially" means 85%, they are projecting sales of afrezza before 2018 to be less than 1bil, at least. (Not saying this is a bad thing but imo this is good ballpark)

Also it would be nice is they could spell Afrezza properly in their press release. Ridiculous.

[Deleted]

Also I'll play Devils advocate. Assume all lantus sales become toujeo. Guess what that sales total is? Yep, exactly 38 billion. Either they are sandbagging or not tipping their hand at all (which we can all deduce what the hit pieces will say afterwards)

[spiro]

One thing is certain, it will take years for Toujeo to replace Lantus revenues if ever. If Afrezza doesn't become a blockbuster, SNY will not get close to that $37.5 billion dollar estimate. My guess, Afrezza is SNY's Ace in the hole.

[BD]

Live webcast link just appeared:

www.media-server.com/m/p/t6saa7fy

[mnkdnyc]

slides are out on the sanofi website above. not much on the potential for mnkd. i think it is a low key presentation, at best.

[otherottawaguy]

The way this guy is waxing on about Genzyme, we won't get to Afrezza until trading starts. They seem to be talking a lot more than showing slides, so unless I have missed it, the A presentation may shed some light (I hope).

OOG

[tchalaa]

Target calculation:
With 3,1 millions potential Afrezza patients (Us data 2012, refered in the Sanofi 11.2014 presentation)
-> simple math 3,1*$2000 (year cost)= $6,2 Billions
That's our yearly goal?

What am I missing?

[mnkdnyc]

But those numbers are capturing 100%. What will year 1,2 and 3 be? I hope at least $1.5B for year 1.

[otherottawaguy]

Current capacity with 1  line is 166K. Adding the next 2 updated lines will add another 365K bringing the grand total to 530k by the end of 2015 under the current capacity guidance. 1.5B in sales would mean an additional requirement for at least another line during 2015 making the 1.5B target possible in 2016

OOG

[suebeeee1]

On slide 12, the one that lists all of Sanofi's products, Afrezza and Toujeo are prominantly listed in the top center. This is the position that captures the reader's attention first, and, like placement of products on a grocerty store shelf, tells you what the company thinks is the most important. Clealy Sanofi is strongly backing Afrezza!

[tchalaa]

So one can see clearly that we've a huge potential.




From a BUYOUT scenario which seems to me very plausible I'll currently value Mannkind Corp. at $25-30 Billions.
What is your opinion on this?

Attachments:

[suebeeee1]

They look like they have captured the strength of the new drug and device. People delay using insulin because they do not want to use needles and they fear hypoglycemia. Nine slides dedicated SPECIFICALLY to Afrezza. Again, this speaks volumes about how much Sanofi values this product. I hope the actual presentation is as strong.

[papihoyos]

Diabetes section up next starting at 10:35 ET