Confidence Building

[spiro]

It rather obvious to me that shareholders who are long on MNKD should be  getting more confident as each trading session passes. The pieces continue to fall into their places for MNKD. With FDA approval in hand along with a great partner in Sanofi and a soon to be announced launch date, MNKD appears to be ready to catapult any day now. We now have patients asking their doctors about Afrezza and doctors telling the patients about Afrezza being available soon. We also have Sanofi drug reps starting to chatter about Afrezza, some credible and some maybe not to credible. Hopefully Doc Ashiwi will elaborate on this next Friday. It is Spiro's opinion that Sanofi is most likely deep into the process of developing an offer to acquire MNKD. They are evaluating the feedback from their drug reps, patient surveys and international potential. Sanofi is well aware that an explosive launch of Afrezza could easily double or triple the acquisition price. Spiro also believes that MNkD is aware of Sanofi's intentions and that they have been asked to delay any additional product licensing until a decision is reached. MNKD is sitting on a ROYAL FLUSH, Sanofi knows it, the shorts know it and unfortunately for the shorts, the institutions know it. 

Disclosure: This post was generated by the crazy Spiro, the smart Spiro just sat there and let him post it. 

[bighaus89]

This all sounds quite dandy and like a very possible situation. Is this all your speculation Spiro, or is there some facts that you are using to piece this together?

I know Dr.Mann likes to sell off his business and does not bother with day to day operations. He is a big picture type of guy, so based on that track record, Sanofi would likely buy them out at some point.

[babaoriley]

"Spiro also believes that MNkD is aware of Sanofi's intentions and that they have been asked to delay any additional product licensing until a decision is reached. MNKD is sitting on a ROYAL FLUSH, Sanofi knows it, the shorts know it and unfortunately for the shorts, the institutions know it."

Now, the above is an excellent example of financial journalism! Clear and concise! Baba believes that in addition to the above, Sanofi knows that Spiro knows, and the institutions definitely know that Spiro knows and we all can agree that Bo knows, too. I'm also very hopeful that MNKD is sitting on a "ROYAL FLUSH" instead of sitting on just a "FLUSH." I'm just not clear on who knows that yet.

[seanismorris]

Agree, with all except the Sanofi buyout.

A buyout of Mannkind by Sanofi won't happen anytime soon.  

The first problem with the buyout thesis is the lack of a CEO.  Unless you figure Al becomes the CEO of the joint company, which no matter how great Al is, he has to many balls in the air to drop everything. Age is also a factor...

Positives for Mannkind:
Afrezza launch date announcement
Partnership Technosphere announcements (1st within the next 3 months, 3-4 within next year)
   - one of the announcement being Sanofi greatly increases the chance of a buyout within the next 2 years
Technosphere Report - buying opportunity, followed by imminent partnership announcement

Negatives:
We should have had some investor announcements regarding follow up trials by now.  Safety, larger doses, better label for Afrezza.  

Also, Medicare reimbursements, etc. 6 months out? But extremely important for sales projections.

There is plenty to be excited about, but MNKD is a hold until we hear about the FDA related news.  Which in my opinion is holding the stock back.  And, all the potential positive events.  After we hear about the FDA/trial plans, MNKD is a strong buy.

[seanismorris]

I'm thinking a ROYAL FLUSH is no longer in the cards...

I see 3 Aces on the table, and I think Mannkind has a King in their hand but I can't tell if one of the other cards in the hand is another Ace/King, or something else.  (I'll let you know after the Techosphere Report is published).  

The best the competitors have is a FLUSH, which would beat 3 Aces...I'm still waiting for someone to call.

Unfortunately, the FDA has a whole deck of Jokers.

[spiro]

Seanismorris, the crazy Spiro thinks that SNY will try to bluff MNKD into a premature deal. SNY is not stupid, even with new leadership they still know that time is not their friend here. It's obvious that Hakan and Matt do not play cards very well and probably haven't  noticed that their ace high straight is all spades. Palumbo for sure is clueless. The smart Spiro thinks that Al Mann knows the game and is all in. It's actually not a very hard decision for SNY to make. Spend $20 billion to develop 4 or  5 possible piss ant drugs from scratch or spend $20 billion or so to buyout MNKD and get the slam dunk blockbuster Afrezza and the incredibly promising technospheree platform. The crazy Spiro thinks that $20 billion is way to low, but the smart Spiro would take it, but only within 3 months. After that the new game could have a $40 billion buy in. 

[purge]

spiro-

1-  What are you on?
2-  Got any for me?

[mnholdem]

Two personalities... spiro must be a Gemini, which would explain the wit also.

Palumbo, Hakans and Pfieffer are support personnel. I highly doubt any of these three are actively involved in negotiations, which would primarily involve Thompsen as legal counsel and, of course, Al Mann. Given Sanofi's stated corporate goals, I also believe they are planning an acquisition of all rights to Afrezza. They have manufacturing muscle that can be readied on short notice and a desire to keep their French laborers working. Much of the line equipment comes from Europe, I recall reading, and Sanofi could be ordering equipment as we speak. Perhaps they already did.

The fact that EMA application didn't occur immediately sent up flags for me that something big is in the works between SNY and MNKD. I'm still a proponent of a restructuring of MannKind, only because it's what I would do to protect Technosphere.

The acquisition question for me is not "if" but "when". For those who think it's couple years away, because that's what Al did before, one should consider that the Minimed insulin pump was a new and unproven technology... not to mention expensive. It took a couple years for Al to prove there would be a demand. I don't think that is the case with Afrezza. I think Sanofi has already developed a sense of what the potential consumer demand will be. They may be firming up some additional data to model the global market, but there is probably more initial demand for Afrezza than there was even for Lantus, which if you recall started out slowly but eventually became #1.

The accounting BS that Matt laid on us a few weeks ago was another flag. Come on, do you really expect us to believe that you signed a deal and don't know it affects the books? It's more likely that a MAJOR financial change is in the works... one that Mr. Mann cannot wait to reveal.

Being a Gemini, MnHoldem also has a sane and crazy side, but both sides are in total agreement that a scenario similar to what I just described is happening behind the curtain of silence.

Good fortune to all.

[gamblerjag]

So Spiro.. you are saying approx.. $45-50  if deal happens in 3-4 months.       but if not complete by then about $90-100   after 4 months..   I for one would be glad to wait after 3-4 months for 100% more return.. question for me  is.. how much longer for SNY to pay double? 2016  2017  2018  ?  

[gamblerjag]

mnholdem.. you say that MNKD has given some "flags".. they were also quite literal saying in the last CC.. that this will be a "long" partnership.

[ashiwi]

Dec 11, 2014 19:11:46 GMT -5 purge said:

spiro-

1-  What are you on?
2-  Got any for me?

The cricket for pain.  Spiro is apparently feeling no pain. It appears that the clinical trial provided an overdose.  

[BlueCat]

Dec 11, 2014 20:31:25 GMT -5 mnholdem said:

Two personalities... spiro must be a Gemini, which would explain the wit also.

....

Being a Gemini, MnHoldem also has a sane and crazy side, but both sides are in total agreement that a scenario similar to what I just described is happening behind the curtain of silence.

I will instruct all four of you (dual mnholdems and spiros)

We, the Q, rather than refer to ourselves in the singular form from the third person, always use the plural when speaking from the third-person omniscient.  You must fully own it and work it.

Regarding the curtain of silence, it is strangely reminiscent of Oz, and, "Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain."

mwuahahahahahaha.......

[spiro]

Gamblerjag, Spiro is capable of uncontrollable optimism. Most of the veteran posters here are aware of this fact. Spiro believes that SNY has a very narrow window of opportunity to steal MNKD for less than $50 per share. That window is approximately 4 months. After this period of time, data from the launch should make any deal much more costly to SNY and further complicate negotiations. I further believe that the market is ignoring the potential value of the Technosphere pipeline, particularly with pain applications. Listen, SNY made a great decision to partner with MNKD, they will be huge winners with that deal. Because Spiro is greedy, he actually hopes that MNKD will refuse to sell at any price. Small companies can become big companies pretty fast with the right products. Stay tuned.

This post was generated by the smart Spiro.

[dreamboatcruise]

And then there are those of us that believe Al has no intention of selling and plans Mannkind as a legacy namesake company. Of course the only flag for that is merely that he has basically stated the intent was to maintain it as an independent company. Though not nearly as interesting as reading things into the way Matt tilted his head in the direction of Paris while conducting the last CC.

[Deleted]

While I can certainly appreciate the level of optimism here, I'm currently feeling like rocky balboa in rocky iv. I'm pretty tired of getting my ass beat all over the ring