I couldn't resist. Order filled at $5.18. Who else added ?

[harshal1981]

Any one else added shares to the position during this dip. I think Jan 15 on wards we should see some strenght

[kc]

Me too!  I couldn't resist.   I guess you have to buy if you beleive that better days are ahead next week.   I got some at 5.15 and 5.17 today.  Its a nice way to end 2014. 

[spiro]

I went all in this week,  picking up several groups of calls with my remaining cash. MNKD is now the only stock I hold. My last purchase was 26 contracts of the May  2015  $5 calls  today.  Check out the weather in Siberia today. Good grief, I could be in major trouble if things go bad next year. 

www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/RU/Dzalinda_(Siberia).html

[bradleysbest]

Spiro, my suggestion is you get yourself a nice speedo! This is the year the tide turns for MNKD & its share holders. You will be sun bathing on some tropical island with an umbrella in your drink! Cheers & HAPPY NEW YEAR to all posters! Good times are a coming!

[coco]

I'm guilty as well. Got in at 5.20. Whatever happens let's hope for a healthy and prosperous 2015. Happy New Year to all. And please be safe.

[notamnkdmillionaire]

Don't be surprised if it still dips. There is no true base and this stock has been abused more than a blow up doll at a bachelor party.

[mnholdem]

I placed a limit order but missed getting it filled by a penny. I think the shorts may do a head fake and mount another attack when the market reopens after the holiday. Even with the tax ramifications behind, they'll try to steal shares from weak longs before this gets away from them, which should happen over the coming weeks and months IMHO.

[spiro]

It's amazing how similar MNKD's price per share was one year ago. MNKD closed the year at $5.20. No ADCOM, no approval and no partner and still a ton of risk. IMO, MNKD is probably the safest small biotech company to own at today's ridiculously low price. The main argument against Afrezza's becoming a blockbuster continues to be the fact that the pathetically poor product Exhubera failed. There is no doubt that the shorts will keep up with their antics and desperate attempts to rattle the longs, but time is their enemy. I am not sure the shorts will able to stop the rally that will most likely begin next week.

Happy New Year to all and good luck next year,

Spiro


Jan 31, 2014 5.35 5.56 5.32 5.42 4,231,700 5.42
Jan 30, 2014 5.43 5.53 5.40 5.40 3,878,200 5.40
Jan 29, 2014 5.39 5.60 5.28 5.35 5,392,300 5.35
Jan 28, 2014 5.22 5.57 5.20 5.44 6,251,600 5.44
Jan 27, 2014 5.55 5.63 5.15 5.23 9,483,200 5.23
Jan 24, 2014 5.68 5.73 5.48 5.55 7,369,100 5.55
Jan 23, 2014 5.64 5.85 5.56 5.70 6,916,100 5.70
Jan 22, 2014 5.54 5.69 5.52 5.59 4,436,800 5.59
Jan 21, 2014 5.83 5.87 5.45 5.56 8,115,300 5.56
Jan 17, 2014 6.04 6.13 5.76 5.79 9,568,200 5.79
Jan 16, 2014 6.00 6.05 5.90 6.02 6,567,900 6.02
Jan 15, 2014 6.00 6.15 5.80 6.01 8,676,500 6.01
Jan 14, 2014 5.86 5.96 5.68 5.94 6,356,000 5.94
Jan 13, 2014 5.78 6.18 5.70 5.75 11,216,200 5.75
Jan 10, 2014 6.69 6.69 5.90 5.92 23,533,300 5.92
Jan 9, 2014 6.05 7.21 6.02 7.08 24,870,600 7.08
Jan 8, 2014 5.50 5.99 5.39 5.98 8,827,600 5.98
Jan 7, 2014 5.64 5.66 5.38 5.48 9,606,700 5.48
Jan 6, 2014 5.62 5.79 5.43 5.60 12,216,700 5.60
Jan 3, 2014 5.33 5.59 5.25 5.40 8,251,300 5.40
Jan 2, 2014 5.20 5.32 5.10 5.31 3,775,700 5.31
Dec 31, 2013 5.33 5.34 5.19 5.20 3,150,600 5.20
Dec 30, 2013 5.19 5.34 5.10 5.33 3,533,800 5.33
Dec 27, 2013 5.32 5.34 5.15 5.20 3,702,500 5.20
Dec 26, 2013 5.25 5.35 5.25 5.30 3,472,000 5.30
Dec 24, 2013 5.17 5.33 5.15 5.25 3,948,100 5.25
Dec 23, 2013 5.05 5.17 5.01 5.14 6,303,200 5.14
Dec 20, 2013 4.97 5.05 4.94 5.01 7,573,900 5.01
Dec 19, 2013 4.94 5.00 4.90 4.93 3,230,600 4.93
Dec 18, 2013 4.96 5.00 4.85 4.96 3,493,900 4.96
Dec 17, 2013 4.97 5.03 4.91 4.94 2,827,100 4.94
Dec 16, 2013 5.00 5.06 4.92 4.96 3,570,200 4.96
Dec 13, 2013 4.99 5.03 4.86 4.98 3,946,800 4.98
Dec 12, 2013 4.85 5.01 4.58 4.96 5,641,500 4.96
Dec 11, 2013 5.00 5.12 4.79 4.81 5,577,500 4.81
Dec 10, 2013 5.39 5.43 4.92 4.94 7,908,100 4.94
Dec 9, 2013 5.12 5.37 5.12 5.36 8,160,000 5.36
Dec 6, 2013 4.98 5.18 4.95 5.12 4,920,500 5.12
Dec 5, 2013 5.00 5.06 4.96 4.97 2,680,200 4.97
Dec 4, 2013 5.01 5.04 4.88 4.99 3,591,600 4.99
Dec 3, 2013 5.06 5.07 4.96 5.01 4,220,000 5.01
Dec 2, 2013 5.00 5.05 4.96 5.05 4,235,500 5.05
Nov 29, 2013 5.00 5.03 4.98 4.99 2,847,200 4.99
* Close price adjusted for dividends and splits.

[biotec]

Dec 31, 2014 16:47:00 GMT -5 spiro said:

I went all in this week,  picking up several groups of calls with my remaining cash. MNKD is now the only stock I hold. My last purchase was 26 contracts of the May  2015  $5 calls  today.  Check out the weather in Siberia today. Good grief, I could be in major trouble if things go bad next year. 

www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/RU/Dzalinda_(Siberia).html

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jj4nJ1YEAp4

MNKD your only stock? You Spiro have some balls!

[gamblerjag]

I agree... could see high 4's.. If DOW goes down Friday and early next week which is often the case in past New Years.. MNKD will follow AND  on a higher % basis.. It shouldn't follow the DOW / SP in reality but on most days it will until news comes out.      I'm adding either Friday or Monday  but very happy to see the downward price from 6.25 just 2 weeks ago.. 

[spiro]

Biotec, thanks for the encouragement, but it has nothing to do with having golf balls. It's actually involves being lucky enough to be in on a great stock early in it's progression towards higher prices. IMO the risk of losing money on MNKD at today's price is near zero. The risk/reward is off the charts right now. MNKD share holders are obviously somewhat fatigued and disappointed by the share price performance since FDA approval and certainly that is not unexpected. Ashiwi, Rak and Spiro went through this exact same process with KOS Pharmaceutical years ago. The opportunities that exist with MNKD literally dwarf those of Kos Pharmaceutical.  Truthfully, it may have taken some big golf balls to own a lot of KOS Pharmaceutical stock. Heck they only were selling a vitamin substitute for Niacin that caused flushing in most people. Now is not the time for MNKD shareholders to lose patience. We just need to sit back and let this thing play out. It may take quite a few month's but good times are ahead. I find this silence from MNKD and Sanofi to be most interesting, considering that silence can quite often be golden. 

[liane]

Happy New Year Everyone! It certainly has been a challenging year for any of us in for the long haul. This coming year should be very interesting as we will finally have the only data that matters - sales. I continue to see a huge overhang of $5 calls out thru Jan '16, so I expect the games to continue thru this year. The only other pesky overhang is those convertibles due in ?Aug. But we have a great partner and plenty of cash - so let the sales begin and the chips fall where they may.

[noonen]

Dec 31, 2014 19:34:00 GMT -5 spiro said:

It's amazing how similar MNKD's price per share was one year ago. MNKD closed the year at $5.20. No ADCOM, no approval and no partner and still a ton of risk. IMO, MNKD is probably the safest small biotech company to own at today's ridiculously low price. The main argument against Afrezza's becoming a blockbuster continues to be the fact that the pathetically poor product Exhubera failed. There is no doubt that the shorts will keep up with their antics and desperate attempts to rattle the longs, but time is their enemy. I am not sure the shorts will able to stop the rally that will most likely begin next week.

Happy New Year to all and good luck next year,

Spiro


Jan 31, 2014 5.35 5.56 5.32 5.42 4,231,700 5.42
Jan 30, 2014 5.43 5.53 5.40 5.40 3,878,200 5.40
Jan 29, 2014 5.39 5.60 5.28 5.35 5,392,300 5.35
Jan 28, 2014 5.22 5.57 5.20 5.44 6,251,600 5.44
Jan 27, 2014 5.55 5.63 5.15 5.23 9,483,200 5.23
Jan 24, 2014 5.68 5.73 5.48 5.55 7,369,100 5.55
Jan 23, 2014 5.64 5.85 5.56 5.70 6,916,100 5.70
Jan 22, 2014 5.54 5.69 5.52 5.59 4,436,800 5.59
Jan 21, 2014 5.83 5.87 5.45 5.56 8,115,300 5.56
Jan 17, 2014 6.04 6.13 5.76 5.79 9,568,200 5.79
Jan 16, 2014 6.00 6.05 5.90 6.02 6,567,900 6.02
Jan 15, 2014 6.00 6.15 5.80 6.01 8,676,500 6.01
Jan 14, 2014 5.86 5.96 5.68 5.94 6,356,000 5.94
Jan 13, 2014 5.78 6.18 5.70 5.75 11,216,200 5.75
Jan 10, 2014 6.69 6.69 5.90 5.92 23,533,300 5.92
Jan 9, 2014 6.05 7.21 6.02 7.08 24,870,600 7.08
Jan 8, 2014 5.50 5.99 5.39 5.98 8,827,600 5.98
Jan 7, 2014 5.64 5.66 5.38 5.48 9,606,700 5.48
Jan 6, 2014 5.62 5.79 5.43 5.60 12,216,700 5.60
Jan 3, 2014 5.33 5.59 5.25 5.40 8,251,300 5.40
Jan 2, 2014 5.20 5.32 5.10 5.31 3,775,700 5.31
Dec 31, 2013 5.33 5.34 5.19 5.20 3,150,600 5.20
Dec 30, 2013 5.19 5.34 5.10 5.33 3,533,800 5.33
Dec 27, 2013 5.32 5.34 5.15 5.20 3,702,500 5.20
Dec 26, 2013 5.25 5.35 5.25 5.30 3,472,000 5.30
Dec 24, 2013 5.17 5.33 5.15 5.25 3,948,100 5.25
Dec 23, 2013 5.05 5.17 5.01 5.14 6,303,200 5.14
Dec 20, 2013 4.97 5.05 4.94 5.01 7,573,900 5.01
Dec 19, 2013 4.94 5.00 4.90 4.93 3,230,600 4.93
Dec 18, 2013 4.96 5.00 4.85 4.96 3,493,900 4.96
Dec 17, 2013 4.97 5.03 4.91 4.94 2,827,100 4.94
Dec 16, 2013 5.00 5.06 4.92 4.96 3,570,200 4.96
Dec 13, 2013 4.99 5.03 4.86 4.98 3,946,800 4.98
Dec 12, 2013 4.85 5.01 4.58 4.96 5,641,500 4.96
Dec 11, 2013 5.00 5.12 4.79 4.81 5,577,500 4.81
Dec 10, 2013 5.39 5.43 4.92 4.94 7,908,100 4.94
Dec 9, 2013 5.12 5.37 5.12 5.36 8,160,000 5.36
Dec 6, 2013 4.98 5.18 4.95 5.12 4,920,500 5.12
Dec 5, 2013 5.00 5.06 4.96 4.97 2,680,200 4.97
Dec 4, 2013 5.01 5.04 4.88 4.99 3,591,600 4.99
Dec 3, 2013 5.06 5.07 4.96 5.01 4,220,000 5.01
Dec 2, 2013 5.00 5.05 4.96 5.05 4,235,500 5.05
Nov 29, 2013 5.00 5.03 4.98 4.99 2,847,200 4.99
* Close price adjusted for dividends and splits.

cannot agree more with this.  looking back at the risk level last january, it was ridiculous compared to now.  the company could legitimately not be in existence right now if that adcom didn't go our way.  we got sales to worry about.  that's a big one, obviously.  but approval, partner, and liquidity all had to be taken care of first.  

plus now they have another $150 in cash and a $175 credit facility.  when's the last time that cash line said 172 (q3), and hopefully +45 in short order (+ 75 milestone - 30ish q4 burn)?  been a while.  who cares if the 150 isn't revs yet.  all the accounting will get sorted out.  don't know for sure, but think it would be hard unless there was some kind of gross negligence on mnkd's part for sanofi to ever get that cash back.

i'm with you on only holding one stock, mnkd.  hope that's something to be proud of and not embarassed about.  we'll surely see.  

i do know that watching money market funds isn't nearly as exciting as watching stocks though.  

happy 2015 to all

[Deleted]

Dec 31, 2014 19:34:00 GMT -5 spiro said:

It's amazing how similar MNKD's price per share was one year ago. MNKD closed the year at $5.20. No ADCOM, no approval and no partner and still a ton of risk.  


Interesting, both the longs AND the shorts broke even on transactions made a year ago.  With all the value that has been added to MNKD last year I guess one has to say that the shorts (J.C. of TheGutter.com, his rabid lapdog A.F. and Karp the fish, etc.),  won a Pyrric victory.  Now I want to see how these slippery eels get out of this one.

[robsacher]

Spiro,

I have a question for you and the other good folks here.

My thought is that Afrezza will have to post gross sales numbers after the second quarter that can reasonably be projected to amount to 500 million dollars by the end of 2015 in order to equal where the value of the stock is today. From that 500M, MannKind keeps 35% which comes to 175 million dollars. 

Multiply the 175M by a factor of 15 and we get a 2.6 Billion dollar company market cap. Multiply the 175 by a factor of 10 and we get a 1.75B market cap. Or, multiply the 175 by a factor of 20 and we get a market cap of 3.5 billion dollars.

Right now, MannKind has a 2B market cap. The share price is $5.22.

Does my logic make sense to you guys?  

By the end of the second quarter in June, I believe that we will need to see completed sales totaling no less than 200 million dollars which would still mean that Afrezza would have to continue to gain additional market share by the end of 2015 in order to reach 500 M. 

I believe that I read somewhere that Sanofi has 8,000 sales reps in America. Please correct me if I am wrong. Can 8,000 sales rep sell $200M worth of Afrezza in five months?  That comes to $25,000 per sales rep over those five months.

Divide that 25K by five months of work selling Afrezza (Feb 2015-June 2015) and we get $5000 per sales rep, per month (Feb-June).

That breaks down to 8000 Sanofi sales reps each selling around $1200 worth of Afrezza every week from February 1st through June 30th, 2015.

If Afrezza is priced around $200 per month, per customer, then that comes to 6 customers per Sanofi sales rep, per week.

Does this seem logical and possible?

Will all Sanofi sales rep be selling Afrezza?