Very Unusual

[piccolopete]

the 8k, that is. One of my main beefs was the non-published data - they addressed that. 

What will hold the pps in check is uncertainty and the length of time until an FDA decision is made, and the market cap of the company taking into consideration the number of fully diluted shares outstanding.

I think what we have here is an ultra rapid action mealtime insulin that produces less hypoglycemic incidents. It's novel and will garner market share.

Is it the blockbuster Al has been boasting about - I don't think so.

Will a BP step up / pony up before approval - I don't think so.

What's MNKD worth, my guess is $10 per share (assuming approval).

On the bright side, MNKD has been able to hold it's own today considering the broader market dive.

[piccolopete]

Add $3 for the convenience factor (no refrigeration, handy device and dosing), so $13 per share. 

MNKD was screwed by the FDA and the 2nd crl (FDA clearly moved goalposts, and I believe there was outside pressure), resulting in at least triple dilution, not to mention delay in getting this drug to diabetics (could have saved lives).

See, I can be reasonable.

[spiro]

piccolopete,

Hmm, you say $13 with no partner, wow, now that's optimistic. Because of the enormous worldwide market potential for Afrezza, I believe a major pharma company will step forward and take a chance on partnering with MNKD. It's as simple as, throw $2 billion or so MNKD's way for a chance to be in on a POTENTIAL mega drug. or spend $5 million and 10-12 years time to develop a new drug which may even have less assurance of getting FDA approval. I believe most major companies would believe they have the marketing skills to make Afrezza a huge winner. If I'm right about Afrezza's potential, the marketing partner will know they have chosen wisely in less than 2 years after FDA approval. I am not good at predicting prices, but it could be a lot more than $13 after FDA approval.

Spiro

[notamnkdmillionaire]

piccolopete,

Why would you have an issue of non-published data when all the company was doing was reporting preliminary data, especially with respects the key points?

What exactly did you want them to publish that wasn't? The medtone results? If the 8K explanation wasn't enough for you then you truly are being disingenuous with your post. I can assure you that the hucksters that reside over on yahoo will have a very short life on here. Lia will must likely make sure you are as short lived on here as Mannkind was in the $8 range.

[piccolopete]

I think at $13 per share, including debt, MNKD will be valued at ~ $7B. The one year analyst target for MNKD is $8 and change. And one year will put us 4 months past an FDA decision date. IMO, if a deal's gonna get done, I suggest it be in a hurry as there are other therapies on the horizon (hence Greenhill). I do think Al's hand has been substantially weakened regarding bargaining power with BP's due to uncertainty of the FDA decision, MNKD's need for funds, and lets' be honest, his advanced age.

I do believe, MNKD has a winner with Afrezza, but not a Secretariat.

[spiro]

Piccolopete,

I am not sure you understand that there is an enormous need for more effective diabetes treatment, particularly in type 2 's. Afrezza will give doctors a new medication that they can easily convince a patient to use, instead of starting insulin injections. Also the early use of Afrezza could provide extended efficiency for the pancreas. This early intervention also gives MNKD and partner a huge opportunity in the worldwide market. The worldwide revenue potential for an easy to use medication like Afrezza is enormous. Here is a question for you to ponder. What would the $500 million dollar order from China or India do to the share price? IMO, it will come soon after approval. I would stop worrying about market cap and start focusing on future earnings. They are going to be Fast and Furious.

[piccolopete]

spiro, remains to be seen. all we can do at this point is guess. affezauser certainly had a very positive experience. i agree, the mktplace is potentially huge, potentially.

mnkdmillionaire, no harm meant, just spurring discussion, peace.

[spiro]

Very soon, when a doctor has a diabetic patient who needs to be on insulin to control his disease, the doctor will at least have another choice.  Tell the patient use inject insulin and then provide the patient with all the necessary instructions to manage insulin injections. or start the patient on Afrezza before meals. Can you imagine how many fewer phone calls the doctor will receive each week from their patients on Afrezza as compared to the ones started on injectable insulin. It will not be hard to convince doctors to try Afrezza. This article is two years old, but is still an interesting read.

www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/01/us-diabetes-control-idUSTRE7206Z120110301

[Deleted]

I work down a hallway that has a diabetic support group at one end and at the other end there is a DaVita Clinic. I am amazed how many people tell me they have been borderline diabetic for a while and their physician wants them to get on insulin. Nearly all of them tell me they don't want to be on insulin until they have to be on insulin. When I ask them why, do you want guess what they answer?

[rak5555]

"I do think Al's hand has been substantially weakened regarding bargaining power with BP's due to uncertainty of the FDA decision, MNKD's need for funds, and lets' be honest, his advanced age."

piccolopete - Are you suggesting the chances of FDA approval are less now than in the past? Really? Are you suggesting MNKD's need for funds is any different than it has been the past 5 years? Why do you think AL's advanced age is more of an issue now than in the past?  I could see a scenario where Al's advanced age is an advantage from standpoint that he is less likely to be actively (and possibly disruptively) involved in the partnership.

[spiro]

Rak,

Al's hand is stronger this time because it now will probably include the type 2's.  But I do think, he will keep his bet down a bit to secure the right partner. But, I do not think the potential partner will take a chance and try to bluff Al this time. Al doesn't have to bluff.  I believe that there are probably 4 to 6 players in this high stakes game. One thing is certain, Al will pick who wins the hand. I still can't get by the fact that Pfizer gave Al $10 billion in insulin for $2.5 million. Because of that, I think Pfizer may be a player in the game. It's going to be interesting to see who Al gives the bracelet to. For a second there I almost forgot what we were talking about. BTW, I can't wait until more doctors find out that according to Scripps, Metformin may be linked to Alzheimer's. disease. I am sure the drug reps will find a way to get that info to doctors.  Stay tuned, the fun begins soon. 

Spiro

[mnkdd]

Aug 28, 2013 22:01:28 GMT -5 spiro said:

Rak,

Al's hand is stronger this time because it now will probably include the type 2's.  But I do think, he will keep his bet down a bit to secure the right partner. But, I do not think the potential partner will take a chance and try to bluff Al this time. Al doesn't have to bluff.  I believe that there are probably 4 to 6 players in this high stakes game. One thing is certain, Al will pick who wins the hand. I still can't get by the fact that Pfizer gave Al $10 billion in insulin for $2.5 million. Because of that, I think Pfizer may be a player in the game. It's going to be interesting to see who Al gives the bracelet to. For a second there I almost forgot what we were talking about. BTW, I can't wait until more doctors find out that according to Scripps, Metformin may be linked to Alzheimer's. disease. I am sure the drug reps will find a way to get that info to doctors.  Stay tuned, the fun begins soon. 

Spiro

Al got 10b in insulin for $2.5m from Pfizer?  I read something like this before, but was confused.  Is it the same insulin that was in Xubera? Aren't they different types of insulins?  

[liane]

Correct me if I'm wrong, this fact often gets misrepresented, but MNKD received enough insulin to make 10 B in product. As for type of insulin - insulin can exist normally in 3 common states - hexameric, dimeric, and monomeric. In other words - 6, 2, or 1 molecules bound together. In the body, what form predominates is determined by concentration. For current injectables, they are the hexameric form - which slowly dissociates into the monomeric form as it dissipates from the injection site. The active form is monomeric. I believe Exubera was somehow starts in the dimeric form. MNKD would be able to take the PFE insulin and put it through their manufacturing process - which dissolves it and then adsorbs it onto the Technosphere particles as monomers. All this is off the top of my head and on no caffeine...

[StevieRay]

Looks like they paid $3 Million instead of $2.5 according to the PR:

www.news.mannkindcorp.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=147953&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1300930&highlight=

MannKind Closes Acquisition of Insulin Assets from Pfizer

VALENCIA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jun. 22, 2009-- MannKind Corporation (Nasdaq:MNKD) today announced that it has completed its acquisition from Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE) of a quantity of bulk insulin and a license to manufacture bulk insulin for use in pulmonary delivery pursuant to an insulin sale and purchase agreement. Upon the closing, MannKind and Pfizer also entered into an agreement pursuant to which MannKind agreed to maintain and store the remainder of Pfizer’s bulk insulin inventory and acquired an option to purchase the remaining insulin, in whole or in part, at a specified price, to the extent that Pfizer has not otherwise disposed of or used the remaining insulin. The total purchase price for this transaction, including consideration payable to MannKind for its storage and maintenance obligations, was $3 million, which MannKind paid in cash.

MannKind had also entered into a sale and purchase agreement with Pfizer relating to Pfizer’s insulin manufacturing facility in Frankfurt, Germany. MannKind’s rights and obligations under this latter agreement were subject to a right of first refusal in favor of Sanofi-Aventis. On June 8, 2009, Sanofi-Aventis exercised its right of first refusal, thereby releasing MannKind from any obligations under this agreement.

[spiro]

Stevie,

Thanks for correcting the $3 million payment.  If this article is accurate describing treatment with injectable insulin, I am positive overworked and now underpaid primary care doctors will love Afrezza. Not only for it's benefits, but also it's ease of use by their patients. 

care.diabetesjournals.org/content/27/suppl_1/s106.full