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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2015 10:23:17 GMT -5
If you read the 10-q, MNKD has 10 days to notify SNY of the milestone and sny has 45 days to pay MNKD. If you go back 55 days you are at the start of production. Therefore I very much doubt this is all inventory related. Hasn't SNY, in the past, paid up earlier than they were required to? Yes but the milestones are 3 line items, and add Up to 75mil, so this all being inventory doesn't make sense to me |
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Post by notamnkdmillionaire on Jan 8, 2015 10:24:53 GMT -5
I am very happy that MNKD has more money in the bank but let's not get too over excited here. The main focus is getting news that diabetics are flocking to get Afrezza because it works better than advertised and docs and insurance companies finally realize that Afrezza is a godsend to diabetics.
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Post by beardawg on Jan 8, 2015 11:24:04 GMT -5
Hasn't SNY, in the past, paid up earlier than they were required to? Yes but the milestones are 3 line items, and add Up to 75mil, so this all being inventory doesn't make sense to me I agree, I think it is the two lines. I seem to recall that they said the lines would be approved soon (or already were ) and they had already submitted a request for the milestone to SNY and would be receiving milestone payments for them once that was approved. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2015 11:37:42 GMT -5
The fact the nobody has a clue as to what the $50MM payment was for speaks volumes on the complete incompetency of management.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2015 11:42:24 GMT -5
There's also some redacted stuff in the 10-Q that is kind of interesting:
"(e) Launch Conditions. Recognizing that Sanofi's obligations to launch Product are ultimately determined by application of a standard of Commercially Reasonable Efforts, the Licensors acknowledge that Sanofi does not intend to launch the Product before and until achievement or completion of [...***...] Milestone."
Id say its likely this was that Milestone.
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Post by nemzter on Jan 8, 2015 11:53:21 GMT -5
Someone should just email Matt or call Roberta, maybe they can at least give us a bone of some sort.
Or better yet, ask Diane if she's going to get some more options to sell out of this $50M.
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Post by jpg on Jan 8, 2015 11:57:58 GMT -5
The fact the nobody has a clue as to what the $50MM payment was for speaks volumes on the complete incompetency of management. Getting one of many millstones paid isn't an obvious sign of bad management. Getting 50 million $ is a good problem to have no? It demonstrates progress. I would say that the fact we don't know why it was paid is more an example of an uncommunicative management then an incompetent management. Why are they not communicating? We all know the answer to that. They want to respect the contract with Sanofi which wants to keep competitors guessing. I am all for that. JPG |
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Post by cusop on Jan 8, 2015 12:17:06 GMT -5
when I woke up this morning and saw all the premarket activity, I thought someone was speculating on the pro board members trip to Danbury, now I have seen the $50 million milestone payment then it is no surprise. I think you have to appreciate that the diabetes market is not a an untapped market waiting for Afrezza, but is a highly competitive market wishing that Afrezza never existed and would go away. Therefore it makes sense for both Mankind and Sanofi to play their cards close to their chests. I suspect that by now Sanofi has an early adopter forecast and will want to get the product to them ASAP after the launch. Once the initial take up has been exhausted then the sales force will focus on convincing the larger market. The fact that the factory is meeting all targets is a good thing.. Whats next in sales we continue to speculate. What I really like about this board is that you all go out get credible information about insurance procedures, with the knowledge that its going to be covered by some insurance groups now, means they must have a price target and it is probably competitive. The issue with Sanofi is that does any one know what level cannibilization of existing sales can we expect, as this is always a problem when a third party sells
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Post by mdcenter61 on Jan 8, 2015 12:52:46 GMT -5
Someone should just email Matt or call Roberta, maybe they can at least give us a bone of some sort. Or better yet, ask Diane if she's going to get some more options to sell out of this $50M.
Nemzter - Amen, I thought I was the only one with a huge case of the red ass on Palumbo's sales. Absolutely no regard for other shareholders; I can see some rebalancing due to financial planning and/or debt issues, but 180,000 shares this year along with shares last year? ? This management group, and her in particular, is infuriatingly insensitive to the retail investor. Rant complete, thanks!!
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Post by babaoriley on Jan 8, 2015 12:53:16 GMT -5
It's just speculation on my part, but my guess is that the $50 million was because MNKD was able to produce "X" amount of cartridges for the launch which will be later this month. SNY presents at JP Morgan on Monday. The hope is that they enlighten us as to the launch details. There was an overlooked provision in an obscure and redacted footnote to the agreement with Sanofi: "fn22: Sanofi agrees to promptly pay MannKind the sum of $25 million if a member of that annoying MannKind ProBoards Message Board actually makes the effort to visit the Danbury plant, and an additional $25 million if that member takes photos of the plant and posts them on that ridiculous board. The parties agree, however, that should that member be one "Spiro," no such payment shall be due, as he is known to be, at times, slightly deranged and beyond obsessive. The foregoing notwithstanding, Sanofi will pay MannKind the sum of $10 million, if this "Spiro" is apprehended within 100 yards of the main gate to the facility. Sanofi specifically disclaims any responsibility for the actions of this man, and MannKind hereby waives any right to seek indemnification from Sanofi as the result of any loss or damage occasioned by his attempted entry or entry into the plant." With the advent and popularity of stock message boards, these type of clauses are becoming more common; fortunately, I was able to obtain an unredacted copy of the agreement. |
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Post by rak5555 on Jan 8, 2015 12:59:43 GMT -5
There's also some redacted stuff in the 10-Q that is kind of interesting: "(e) Launch Conditions. Recognizing that Sanofi's obligations to launch Product are ultimately determined by application of a standard of Commercially Reasonable Efforts, the Licensors acknowledge that Sanofi does not intend to launch the Product before and until achievement or completion of [...***...] Milestone." Id say its likely this was that Milestone. Fug - Great find. I think you are spot on. It is highly likely that this milestone payment was tied to a minimum inventory pre launch. I would imagine next milestone is tied to 2nd/3rd lines. |
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Post by babaoriley on Jan 8, 2015 13:03:36 GMT -5
The fact the nobody has a clue as to what the $50MM payment was for speaks volumes on the complete incompetency of management. Hmmm, I think you've taken things a bit too far here, avogadro. Just because we have some trouble figuring it out, doesn't mean it's not exceedingly clear from a reading of the un-redacted contracts. |
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Post by liane on Jan 8, 2015 13:05:17 GMT -5
cusop,
I don't think there's much cannibalization to be had. Sanofi is a small player in the prandial market. 2014 9 month sales of Apidra were 240 M euro. Extrapolating to 1 full year and converting to dollars gives ~ $380 M in sales. By contrast, Novolog for Q4 2013 did $344 M in sales, or ~ $1.4 B extrapolated to 1 full year. Sanofi is a much bigger player in the basal market with Lantus (hopefully soon to be replaced with Toujeo). If anything, Afrezza complements vs cannibalizes.
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Post by babaoriley on Jan 8, 2015 13:19:23 GMT -5
Could it be that the Sanofi brass received some fish, along with an over-used computer, glasses and a bachelor's degree in political science from Emory University, wrapped in a newspaper?
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Post by bradleysbest on Jan 8, 2015 13:26:49 GMT -5
Yes, the silence is deafening from SNY/MNKD but the milestone payment indicates things are getting done! As Aaron Rodgers said earlier in the season RELAX!
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? This management group, and her in particular, is infuriatingly insensitive to the retail investor. Rant complete, thanks!!
