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Post by bighaus89 on Jan 15, 2015 12:04:58 GMT -5
I do not understand why analysts blatantly are ignoring the U.S. number that Sanofi already put out. Here is a little math for you all(I think there numbers are conservative): SNY projected market capture: 3.1 million patients in the U.S. ( All 3.1 million patients will be on Afrezza by day 1? )Annual cost of Afrezza: $2000/yr 3.1 million * $2000/yr = $6.2B MNKD gets 35%: 35% * $6.2B = $2.17B Shares outstanding: 396M 396M/$2.17B = $5.48 profit/share ( so all of 35% revenue is profit? )Using a P/E of 20: $5.48 * 20 = $109.60 pps This puts MNKD's valuation right at REGN's value. These numbers are U.S. alone and not even counting potential Technosphere revenue. If I messed up any of the caluculations, let me know. i know u r numbers are approximate but still some numbers arent clear for me These numbers are U.S. potential over the next 3-5 years. I do think MNKD will have very large profit margins since SNY is taking on most of the costs. Hakan said yesterday that SNY is reimbursing them for COG. So to me, it sounds like the only expenses will be operations and R&D, which should be minimal. |
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Post by pktrump on Jan 15, 2015 12:14:16 GMT -5
Every Allergist MD I know, most FP and Internal Med practices, and all hospitals have them. The test is simple and noninvasive. This is a nonissue. Following FEV1 (forced expiratory volume in 1 sec) is standard annual testing for those with COPD/Asthma, pulmonary issues, preop assessment in many pts, etc...spirometers are ubiquitous.
Regarding current production: why cant or why won't MNKD release some objective info regarding what volume of orders have been placed thus far?
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Post by BlueCat on Jan 15, 2015 12:19:31 GMT -5
I do not understand why analysts blatantly are ignoring the U.S. number that Sanofi already put out. Here is a little math for you all(I think there numbers are conservative): SNY projected market capture: 3.1 million patients in the U.S. Annual cost of Afrezza: $2000/yr 3.1 million * $2000/yr = $6.2B MNKD gets 35%: 35% * $6.2B = $2.17B Shares outstanding: 396M 396M/$2.17B = $5.48 profit/share Using a P/E of 20: $5.48 * 20 = $109.60 pps This puts MNKD's valuation right at REGN's value. These numbers are U.S. alone and not even counting potential Technosphere revenue. If I messed up any of the caluculations, let me know. Numbers to adjust: 1. 3.1m users is at 100% attach to SNY's estimated market opportunity US. The chart coming out of the JPM conference from SNY presentation suggested 50% attach to that market - which would be (let's say conservative), 1.5m. 2. Previous comment from MNKD management had profit to MNKD at about 25% (removing the shared costs of the JV). 3. Are those outstanding share numbers correct? Last I recall I thought it was over 400m? Let's just call it 400m. So - 3.1 million * $2000/yr = $6.2B (at 50% or 1.5m = $3B)MNKD gets 35%: (25% actual profit after costs)35% * $6.2B = $2.17B (25% * $3B = $750m)Shares outstanding: 396M (400m?)396M/$2.17B = $5.48 profit/share ($750 profit/400m shares = 1.88 profit/share)Using a P/E of 20: $5.48 * 20 = $109.60 pps ($1.88 * 20 = $37.6 pps)
If I did the calculation correctly. And 20 PE would be very conservative for a biotech at this stage - more aligned with BP. But I would take 37 - now! |
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Post by gamblerjag on Jan 15, 2015 12:35:57 GMT -5
I would take 35 buckaroos now.. as long as that does not include Techno!
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Post by od on Jan 15, 2015 12:44:05 GMT -5
Every Allergist MD I know, most FP and Internal Med practices, and all hospitals have them. The test is simple and noninvasive. This is a nonissue. Following FEV1 (forced expiratory volume in 1 sec) is standard annual testing for those with COPD/Asthma, pulmonary issues, preop assessment in many pts, etc...spirometers are ubiquitous. Regarding current production: why cant or why won't MNKD release some objective info regarding what volume of orders have been placed thus far? Of course allergists/immunologists/hospitals have spirometers, they cannot practice without them. Same is not true for internists/FPs. This should not be a problem. Spirometers are relatively inexpensive. The FEV1 predictive test for patients being considered for Afrezza is billable, as is spirometry testing for other conditions. Unfortunately for public health, well beyond potential Afrezza patients (think COPD - the third leading cause of death in 2012), spirometers are not ubiquitous. |
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Post by bighaus89 on Jan 15, 2015 13:02:25 GMT -5
I do not understand why analysts blatantly are ignoring the U.S. number that Sanofi already put out. Here is a little math for you all(I think there numbers are conservative): SNY projected market capture: 3.1 million patients in the U.S. Annual cost of Afrezza: $2000/yr 3.1 million * $2000/yr = $6.2B MNKD gets 35%: 35% * $6.2B = $2.17B Shares outstanding: 396M 396M/$2.17B = $5.48 profit/share Using a P/E of 20: $5.48 * 20 = $109.60 pps This puts MNKD's valuation right at REGN's value. These numbers are U.S. alone and not even counting potential Technosphere revenue. If I messed up any of the caluculations, let me know. Numbers to adjust: 1. 3.1m users is at 100% attach to SNY's estimated market opportunity US. The chart coming out of the JPM conference from SNY presentation suggested 50% attach to that market - which would be (let's say conservative), 1.5m. 2. Previous comment from MNKD management had profit to MNKD at about 25% (removing the shared costs of the JV). 3. Are those outstanding share numbers correct? Last I recall I thought it was over 400m? Let's just call it 400m. So - 3.1 million * $2000/yr = $6.2B (at 50% or 1.5m = $3B)MNKD gets 35%: (25% actual profit after costs)35% * $6.2B = $2.17B (25% * $3B = $750m)Shares outstanding: 396M (400m?)396M/$2.17B = $5.48 profit/share ($750 profit/400m shares = 1.88 profit/share)Using a P/E of 20: $5.48 * 20 = $109.60 pps ($1.88 * 20 = $37.6 pps)
If I did the calculation correctly. And 20 PE would be very conservative for a biotech at this stage - more aligned with BP. But I would take 37 - now! Noticed a few mistakes in my write up. Can't figure out how to edit my post. Q2U, your numbers look much more accurate. You are right, I do recall hearing the 25% profit. According to Yahoo! Finance, shares outstanding is 396.47M. Either way, we are looking between $37 to around $100 pps depending on time frame, which is a significant ROI. |
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Post by liane on Jan 15, 2015 13:06:56 GMT -5
bighaus,
Just so you know, you can edit your own post for up to 1 hour. There's an "edit" button in the upper right corner of the post. I believe it disappears after that time.
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Post by BlueCat on Jan 15, 2015 13:10:14 GMT -5
I would take 35 buckaroos now.. as long as that does not include Techno! Agreed. In the numbers game, that 20 PE is way low - really only taking Afrezza sold via SNY into account. Hence why it doesn't make sense for a biotech with a TS pipeline - especially if the next project gets committed and announced. Personally - I'd be over the moon if we did get an Afrezza sell-off in return for SNY stock, or a one time dividend for it at 35/share - and still get to keep MNKD shares. I could pay some bills that are not "patient", and still hold core position for longer term investment. |
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Post by brentie on Jan 15, 2015 13:15:44 GMT -5
bighaus, Just so you know, you can edit your own post for up to 1 hour. There's an "edit" button in the upper right corner of the post. I believe it disappears after that time. Actually, Liane, that's the way it used to be but I've noticed that we now have more time to edit and delete than that. I still see those options on posts of mine from days ago. |
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Post by bradleysbest on Jan 15, 2015 13:19:50 GMT -5
Frustration is just a part of this investment. Respect is EARNED & not given! SALES will EARN us (MNKD mgmt & shareholders)the respect we deserve!
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Post by liane on Jan 15, 2015 13:26:23 GMT -5
bighaus, Just so you know, you can edit your own post for up to 1 hour. There's an "edit" button in the upper right corner of the post. I believe it disappears after that time. Actually, Liane, that's the way it used to be but I've noticed that we now have more time to edit and delete than that. I still see those options on posts of mine from days ago. brentie, But is the "edit" button active after an hour? I can't tell, since I can edit at any time. |
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Post by BlueCat on Jan 15, 2015 13:35:23 GMT -5
Frustration is just a part of this investment. Respect is EARNED & not given! SALES will EARN us (MNKD mgmt & shareholders)the respect we deserve! I appreciate the sentiment and ethics, and agree with the frustration part. But: 1. I think MNKD has already done everything to EARN respect. They've consistently delivered on what they said they would. 2. I don't think share price is reflecting "Respect". Its reflecting greed. And greed is generally not aligned with ethics. If it were, we'd watch the stock of a company trying to help people becoming ridiculously over-valued at a super high price. As such, while I am hopeful that sales will break the blockade on this stock, I have minimal confidence that business reality will change things. So what I've got is hope and business reality on my side, but I'm depending on greed and stock price for my reality. The dynamics on this stock only serve to reaffirm the Q's judgment on humanity as a "savage, child race." Sigh. We, the Q, will go away and be grumpy by ourselves now. |
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Post by brentie on Jan 15, 2015 13:49:39 GMT -5
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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No Respect
Jan 15, 2015 14:07:22 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Jan 15, 2015 14:07:22 GMT -5
Every Allergist MD I know, most FP and Internal Med practices, and all hospitals have them. The test is simple and noninvasive. This is a nonissue. Following FEV1 (forced expiratory volume in 1 sec) is standard annual testing for those with COPD/Asthma, pulmonary issues, preop assessment in many pts, etc...spirometers are ubiquitous. Regarding current production: why cant or why won't MNKD release some objective info regarding what volume of orders have been placed thus far? I've approximated it on other threads and I'm willing to bet I'm not far off. |
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Post by bradleysbest on Jan 15, 2015 14:07:46 GMT -5
I hear you Q2U and I believe in the science. Our day is coming soon!
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