No Respect

[spiro]

I find it quite remarkable how the investment community has undervalued the potential for Afrezza sales. It's interesting that SNY and MNKD in their silence and refusal to forecast future revenue, have allowed the shorts and analysts to set sales expectations particularly low. They have actually set up MNKD and SNY to compare Afrezza sales to Exhubera sales as a barometer. I have been trying to figure out the Exhubera launch fiasco. This is amazing. Can you imagine if MNKD did this?

FDA approval was on Jan 27, 2006

PFE launch date was originally set for July, 2006

Then pushed back to early Sept, 2006

Then pushed back to November

I believe the actual U.S. launch was in Jan 2007

The reason for launch delays was manufacturing problems. PFE recorded only $12 million in sales during the first 9 months of 2007, before Exhubera was pulled from market.

Analysts were ecstatic about Exhubera's potential and were projecting between $1 and $4 billion in annual sales by 2010 for that piece of crap product. PFE had a projection of $2 billion in annual sales by 2010.

Isn't it nice that analysts are refusing to project sales even remotely optimistic for an remarkably better product like Afrezza. If an honest analysts thought some 9 years ago that an inferior inhaled insulin product being delivered by a marijuana quart sized bong would sell between $1 and $4 billion in annual sales, what should they be saying about Afrezza now. You let me know.....

Wow, now tell me that Afrezza is not set up on a tee to blast away Exhubera sales. Afrezza is ready to launch within 6 months of FDA approval with flawless manufacturing capability with a virtual status symbol device and product. Afrezza will have a world class Insulin sales team, second to none. I think MNKD's management and Al Mann deserve a lot more respect than they have been getting from most investors and analysts. The next 12 months should be very interesting to say the least. I would post my links, but I went to about 6 sites before I could put the timeline together and I am not certain of the accuracy, but it's close.

Spiro here, you know, most of these analysts noses are dragging on the ground.

[Deleted]

Most of them are currently on the short side of the trade, too.

You hit on this, but these projections are exactly what you want these clowns to say. It's not good for short term value, and it doesn't give the squirm that everyone would like to see from the 75mil+, but the product they just created BEFORE launch has a value of $82,000,000. That's 30,000 patients annualized and 60% of the target that these naysayers are suggesting.

And launch hasn't even occurred yet, and the line is still putting out 4+ boxes a minute, every minute. And when line 2/3 get rolling, then they'll be pumping out 13-15 boxes a minute, meaning each minute of production will be worth $3,500. That's $210,000 an hour. That's $3,360,000 a day. That's $1,200,000,000 a year.

Yep, stick with 50,000 patients year one, BoA, JPM, et al.

[Deleted]

Jan 14, 2015 23:06:22 GMT -5 spiro said:

 PFE recorded only $12 billion million in sales during the first 9 months of 2007, before Exhubera was pulled from market.

corrected

[babaoriley]

Jan 14, 2015 23:32:11 GMT -5 @iam2sekc4u2002 said:

Jan 14, 2015 23:06:22 GMT -5 spiro said:

 PFE recorded only $12 billion million in sales during the first 9 months of 2007, before Exhubera was pulled from market.

corrected

Spiro wrote that at 11:30 pm Florida time, wow, he must have been excited, I've talked to him at 7pm and he sounds really sleepy, but even then, I can't get a word in edgewise!  And besides, million sounds like it can't be right - what a complete bomb that bong was!  

[EveningOfTheDay]

Jan 14, 2015 23:32:11 GMT -5 @iam2sekc4u2002 said:

Jan 14, 2015 23:06:22 GMT -5 spiro said:

 PFE recorded only $12 billion million in sales during the first 9 months of 2007, before Exhubera was pulled from market.

Yes, we all read the typo. I do not know which of Spiro's multiple personalities wrote it, but I do not think pointing out was needed.We all could read around it.

[liane]

I think fugacity is right on track. This is all manipulation to turn around the short position. Know it for what it is and play accordingly.

[spiro]

A little typo here and a little typo there, everywhere a typo. Geez, it was only a little $11.88 billion dollar error, but thanks for fixing my typo. In reality I was only thinking about what Afrezza sales will be in 6 or 7 years and somehow got billions stuck in my small head. At least I didn't say trillions.

[od]

Re: comparing to Exubera launch...no question that Afrezza is a superior product/delivery platform, but Afrezza's black-box is similar to Exubera.  Research suggests that a key reason for mediocre Exubera NRX volume was prescribers inability to comply with the black-box - the number of internists and endocrinologists with spirometers is anemic.

I do not have positions in MNKD or SNY.  I believe MNKD is a good investment, as much for current and future delivery platforms as for Afrezza.

[liane]

od,

I disagree. Spirometers have come down in size and cost to the point that many primary care offices have them. Even if they do not, it is easy to send the patient to the local hospital to have the test done.

[joeypotsandpans]

Jan 15, 2015 10:10:26 GMT -5 od said:

Re: comparing to Exubera launch...no question that Afrezza is a superior product/delivery platform, but Afrezza's black-box is similar to Exubera.  Research suggests that a key reason for mediocre Exubera NRX volume was prescribers inability to comply with the black-box - the number of internists and endocrinologists with spirometers is anemic.

I do not have positions in MNKD or SNY.  I believe MNKD is a good investment, as much for current and future delivery platforms as for Afrezza.

Thanks for the good laugh to start the day!! Did you take a personal survey? I for one have been waiting for Afrezza, if my primary or endo doesn't have a spirometer or won't get one then it's adios muchachos...the demand will come from the patient so if they don't have one and risk looking like an idiot I would imagine they will be getting one fairly quickly.

[Deleted]

Jan 15, 2015 10:10:26 GMT -5 od said:

 the number of internists and endocrinologists with spirometers is anemic.

 

Spirometer -  is that a device for measuring Spiro's enthusiasm over MNKD?

[od]

THE TUCK SCHOOL AT DARTMOUTH
- Exubera
, How Pfizer Blew It
, Entrepreneurship & Innovation Strategy
, 11/8/2010



faculty.tuck.dartmouth.edu/images/uploads/faculty/ron-adner/EIS__FinalProject__Exubera_110810.pdf



I agree it is foolish for providers to not acquire spirometers; it should be a must-have device and they can bill for the service. Same was true with Exubera. Plenty of patients were waiting for Exubera, but it failed. And yes, I know SNY has solved the payor coverage issue that also crippled Exubera.



Re: liane's comment about sending patients elsewhere for spirometry - it is far from an ideal scenario. It prevents the patient from walking out of the internist's/endocrinologist's office with the Rx; a delay that is not good for patient/SNY/MNKD/investors.

[bighaus89]

I do not understand why analysts blatantly are ignoring the U.S. number that Sanofi already put out.

Here is a little math for you all(I think there numbers are conservative):

SNY projected market capture: 3.1 million patients in the U.S.
Annual cost of Afrezza: $2000/yr

3.1 million * $2000/yr = $6.2B

MNKD gets 35%:
35% * $6.2B = $2.17B

Shares outstanding: 396M

396M/$2.17B = $5.48 profit/share

Using a P/E of 20:
$5.48 * 20 = $109.60 pps

This puts MNKD's valuation right at REGN's value.

These numbers are U.S. alone and not even counting potential Technosphere revenue.

If I messed up any of the caluculations, let me know.

[Deleted]

Jan 15, 2015 11:20:02 GMT -5 bighaus89 said:

I do not understand why analysts blatantly are ignoring the U.S. number that Sanofi already put out.

Here is a little math for you all(I think there numbers are conservative):

SNY projected market capture: 3.1 million patients in the U.S. ( All 3.1 million patients will be on Afrezza by day 1? )
Annual cost of Afrezza: $2000/yr

3.1 million * $2000/yr = $6.2B

MNKD gets 35%:
35% * $6.2B = $2.17B

Shares outstanding: 396M

396M/$2.17B = $5.48 profit/share ( so all of 35% revenue is profit? )

Using a P/E of 20:
$5.48 * 20 = $109.60 pps

This puts MNKD's valuation right at REGN's value.

These numbers are U.S. alone and not even counting potential Technosphere revenue.

If I messed up any of the caluculations, let me know.

i know u r numbers are approximate but still some numbers arent clear for me

[joeypotsandpans]

Jan 15, 2015 11:20:02 GMT -5 bighaus89 said:

I do not understand why analysts blatantly are ignoring the U.S. number that Sanofi already put out.

Here is a little math for you all(I think there numbers are conservative):

SNY projected market capture: 3.1 million patients in the U.S.
Annual cost of Afrezza: $2000/yr

3.1 million * $2000/yr = $6.2B

MNKD gets 35%:
35% * $6.2B = $2.17B

Shares outstanding: 396M

396M/$2.17B = $5.48 profit/share

Using a P/E of 20:
$5.48 * 20 = $109.60 pps

This puts MNKD's valuation right at REGN's value.

These numbers are U.S. alone and not even counting potential Technosphere revenue.

If I messed up any of the caluculations, let me know.

316.1 million (2013) = US population....so 3.1m is right @ 1% of entire US population....I say too low based on the rising trend in T2 diabetics....don't forget there's even a restaurant out there that gives you a free meal if you weigh over 350lbs en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heart_Attack_Grill I believe JBvegas might have even been there  .....as an aside, last night while dining out if I had my dreamboat I could have had the Spumoni that looked so tempting....speaking of which, how are my boys doing today...what time for lunch JB, Chicag, GWB (if you're in town), etc.?