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Post by Deleted on Jan 20, 2015 15:23:40 GMT -5
The manipulation of this stock is palpable. It is stuck in the mud and has no relationship to what the market and other biotechs are doing. Just when does this crap stop, and what will stop it.
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Post by savzak on Jan 20, 2015 16:18:03 GMT -5
The manipulation of this stock is palpable. It is stuck in the mud and has no relationship to what the market and other biotechs are doing. Just when does this crap stop, and what will stop it. Documented sales followed by documented sales GROWTH. |
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Post by pmikeks on Jan 20, 2015 16:23:03 GMT -5
Sales exceeding expectations, viable Technosphere application that are specific and aren't 5 years down the road and upgrades from highly respected analysts and large investment firms.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jan 20, 2015 16:55:04 GMT -5
The manipulation of this stock is palpable. It is stuck in the mud and has no relationship to what the market and other biotechs are doing. Just when does this crap stop, and what will stop it. Those tied to the 75 mill have been stuck in the 5 stages of death, see particularly #5 for your answer....of course they are thinking (more like hoping) the same thing about the longs as we continue to hit the milestones one by one: Stages of Dying 1. Denial and Isolation: Used by almost all patients in some form. It is a usually temporary shock response to bad news. Isolation arises from people, even family members, avoiding the dying person. People can slip back into this stage when there are new developments or the person feels they can no longer cope. 2. Anger: Different ways of expression -Anger at God: "Why me?" Feeling that others are more deserving. -Envy of others: Other people don't seem to care, they are enjoying life while the dying person experiences pain. Others aren't dying. -Projected on environment: Anger towards doctors, nurses, and families. 3. Bargaining: A brief stage, hard to study because it is often between patient and God. -If God didn't respond to anger, maybe being "good" will work. -Attempts to postpone: "If only I could live to see . . ." 4. Depression: Mourning for losses -Reactive depression (past losses): loss of job, hobbies, mobility. -Preparatory depression (losses yet to come): dependence on family, etc. 5. Acceptance: This is not a "happy" stage, it is usually void of feelings. It takes a while to reach this stage and a person who fights until the end will not reach it. It consists of basically giving up and realizing that death is inevitable.
Hope is an important aspect of all stages. A person's hope can help them through difficult times. Obviously patience is a virtue and should be well rewarded when and if they reach the last stage....I'm just glad I'm that much closer to being able to eat a slice of pizza again after whipping out my Dreamboat...(wow that didn't sound right) |
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Post by babaoriley on Jan 20, 2015 19:11:49 GMT -5
I don't know, Joey, even applied to the shorts, the above is pretty depressing.
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Post by BlueCat on Jan 20, 2015 19:21:17 GMT -5
I dunno. Depressing for longs too. I've been going through four of the steps for the past 8 months?
Refuse to go to 5, tho.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 20, 2015 20:09:37 GMT -5
It is looking like a lot of formularies will initially have Afrezza as tier three. So sales may indeed not rocket right out of the gate as the catalyst for the stock. However, I think there will be at least a few forward looking plans that will give favorable formulary treatment to Afrezza. When we start getting clinicians talking about using Afrezza for early intervention and even a few formulary start switching Afrezza to preferred... that is when we could see big interest in the stock.
Many of us here believe in the science of Afrezza being superior and don't need convincing. That belief is not widespread yet. I suspect even savvy institutional investors that may realize the science is compelling have simply come to the conclusion that they have time to wait. I'm not sophisticated enough to time when the turn will come, but the professionals probably assume they can... either predict it or be the ones to create the turn when they finally think the time is right.
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Post by jpg on Jan 20, 2015 20:15:14 GMT -5
It is looking like a lot of formularies will initially have Afrezza as tier three. So sales may indeed not rocket right out of the gate as the catalyst for the stock. However, I think there will be at least a few forward looking plans that will give favorable formulary treatment to Afrezza. When we start getting clinicians talking about using Afrezza for early intervention and even a few formulary start switching Afrezza to preferred... that is when we could see big interest in the stock. Many of us here believe in the science of Afrezza being superior and don't need convincing. That belief is not widespread yet. I suspect even savvy institutional investors that may realize the science is compelling have simply come to the conclusion that they have time to wait. I'm not sophisticated enough to time when the turn will come, but the professionals probably assume they can... either predict it or be the ones to create the turn when they finally think the time is right. The thing is the professionals tend to ape each other and since there isn't that much of a float (and a lot of short interest) they might have trouble getting cheap shares. That could drive up the share price significantly and be a big problem. JPG PS: thinking about it I just realized this could actually be good for us. PPS: my attempt at being funny... |
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Post by shortslaver on Jan 20, 2015 20:20:53 GMT -5
Many of us here believe in the science of Afrezza being superior and don't need convincing. That belief is not widespread yet. I suspect even savvy institutional investors that may realize the science is compelling have simply come to the conclusion that they have time to wait. I'm not sophisticated enough to time when the turn will come, but the professionals probably assume they can... either predict it or be the ones to create the turn when they finally think the time is right. I think this is right. There's a lot of skepticism still and I'm not sure it is unwarranted. You see this all the time. A new product is coming out that is sort of easy to compare to a previous failed product when looked at from a certain (wrong) point of view. In Tesla's case it was one of the most shorted stocks and stuck in the mud because it was assumed that previous EV cars failed so Tesla will too. The smart money got in at the end of the "stuck in the mud" phase. The pretty smart money took a wait and see approach and bought in as soon as they announced they were selling well. It erased all the FUD and made the stock safe to buy because the company was not going to "go to 0" as so many analysts predicted. And then of course all the price targets were upped and upped again, etc. It's how the market works for better or worse. In MNKD's case it is Exubera. It's easy to say "inhaled insulin failed before so it will fail again". But when you look deeper you see the only thing it has in common is that it is inhaled. We all know the advantages to Afrezza and the technology behind it and how it is absolutely nothing like Exubera just as the ModelS was nothing like any EV before it. The same FUD is being used it's almost remarkable. "Based on a failed concept". "Even if successful it is all priced in". "Nobody wants it". Look at TSLA ramblings on Seeking Alpha and random analyst reports from a couple years ago. John Petersen was the Adam Feuerstein of TSLA. If we are right it will work out in our favor quickly as soon as the "it will go to 0" FUD is vaporized. Of course if it doesn't sell then it's toast. |
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Post by spiro on Jan 20, 2015 20:37:01 GMT -5
Is it safe to assume that most new drugs start at tier 3 pricing? Success will depend upon how good the drug is and how eager patients are to try the new drug. It obvious that initial high costs could keep most lower income people from using Afrezza at first, but that will not stop Afrezza from solid early sales. Because of the internet and social media, the word on Afrezza will get out much quicker than it did with Exhubera. BTW, when Exhubera launched in Jan of 2007, there was about 1 billion worldwide internet users. When Afrezza launches there will be over 3 billion worldwide internet users.This number is probably much higher when you add smart phone access. I also think it safe to say that a lot more Diabetics have probably heard about Afrezza pre launch as compared tot Exhubera pre launch.
Spiro thinks we may need a board psychiatrist.
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Post by robsacher on Jan 20, 2015 20:50:28 GMT -5
What exactly are the sales expectations? For Q1 2015, for Q2 2015, and for Q3 2015? Anyone have any ideas?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 20, 2015 21:53:15 GMT -5
What exactly are the sales expectations? For Q1 2015, for Q2 2015, and for Q3 2015? Anyone have any ideas? The analysts with the lowest pts (all the short tutes, funny how that works) have crazy low sales, something like 30,000 -50,000 diabetics. So probably under 100mil total rev. Yearly. I think some even have as low as 10-50mil total rev |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 20, 2015 22:14:12 GMT -5
What exactly are the sales expectations? For Q1 2015, for Q2 2015, and for Q3 2015? Anyone have any ideas? My memory is not so good, so I had to go back to the 10Q filing to check for what "exactly" are the sales expectations. The agreement is the bible regarding info such as this. The sales forecasts listed there are as follows... Q1 2015 [...***...] Q2 2015 [...***...] Q3 2015 [...***...] ***Confidential Treatment Requested My personal opinion is that in reality these may be way [...***...]estimating the true sales figures we'll see. |
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Post by mannmade on Jan 20, 2015 23:23:04 GMT -5
Can't remember which one of the analysts it was, (may be BofA, am not sure but do recall it was a major) and they said $65m were the expected sales.
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Post by otherottawaguy on Jan 21, 2015 10:38:02 GMT -5
Lets say that they have programmed production to match estimated sales.
We know that by the end of 2015 there will be a min of 3 lines firing, 24 /7.
We can safely assume that 1 line is currently working.
Old line capability = 2M /12 = 166K annual (as per Dr Mann's Danbury max output comment)
New Lines = 110% of old line = 183K
Max Production = 167 + 183 + 183 = 533 K
Average production = (167 * 12) + (183 * 6) + (183 * 3) = 3651 / 12
= 304K * 11/12 (sales start in Feb)
= 278K - 20% (estimated surplus production but hopefully less)
= 223K (final answer, but hopefully higher)
223000 * 287 (monthly cost) * 12 * 23% (what mnkd gets) * 18 (conservative P/E) / 450M (share count)
= 7.06 conservative pps (end of 2015)
= 8.40 (if max supply matches demand)
But...If all machines are running for launch date in Feb 2015: 533000 * 287 (monthly cost) * 12 * 23% (what mnkd gets) * 18 (conservative P/E) / 450M (share count) = 16.88 pps (supply = demand)
Some may want to argue a higher P/E, and should adjust the numbers accordingly...
OOG
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