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Post by rak5555 on Feb 18, 2015 15:08:56 GMT -5
Possibly a short squeeze will be triggered by an avalanche of news events over next 90 days, including:
- Approval of 12 Unit cartridge
- Approval of 2nd and 3rd lines
- Acceptance of European filing (as well as other jurisdictions)
- Approval of PFE inventory (not counting on this one)
- Technoshere partnership(s)
- Sales!
- Additional milestone payments (related to items listed above)
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Post by phantomfj on Feb 18, 2015 15:16:58 GMT -5
Is it possible that some of these short sellers are so far in it is there only choice to continue on and pray......there is always bankruptcy to fall back on...........lets face it, their funds or products are probably structured so that owner/manager lose minimally in case of bankruptcy, and it is the poor individual investor who gets hammered? Call me a cynic, but this whole game seems to be rigged against you and me, the big boys always seem to come out ok in the end........
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Post by jpg on Feb 18, 2015 15:42:53 GMT -5
What on earth are we missing? Interest rates going through the roof, no shares to find/borrow, stock price despite the sell short pressure is maintaining and making lower lows.... What the heck is going on? On an average, the companies with high short interest rates (and ratio) tend to fall a lot and shorts make a profit. The high rate alone is not a case for short squeeze. Only in a very few cases (you can count with both hands) you'll see a short covering & rising stock prices. The shorts get it right most of the time. I can wear a shorts hat and make a strong case for shorting: (this is a sampling, BTW, I've never shorted MNKD) 1) History has repeatedly shown that longs have lost money and shorts have won 2) History has shown that inhaled insulin has no market & has been a failure 3) Market leaders pulled out of inhaled insulin as they never saw a demand. Why would they willingly concede market share? 4) The only thing in the world that multiplies faster than horny rabbits is outstanding shares of MNKD. 5) Even if Afrezza succeeds, it'll have a niche market with peak sales of <100MM. The market cap is pricing in ~500MM sales or more 6) Afrezza has dosing/titration, cancer issues, it is expensive (many insurance cos have placed in Tier 3), injections are no big deal, is inferior to injections for controlling A1C.... 7) The smartest insider Palumbo always sells her MNKD stock ......... Hi Gomnkd, I know you are simply playing devils advocate but I would at a very minimum point out: Some longs have done very very well so far. All those below 2$ shares were bought by some of us... The rest of your points are, as you know, the usual generic talking points of any new product or service. Market share, niche etc. applied to Ford (in the early days), Apple all the time, Gleevec and a bunch of other new disruptive innovations. Number 6 and 7 are simply empty words. You did forget AFs often repeated 'balance sheet issues' that is eagerly and magically transformed into a 1 billion $ debt MNKD supposedly has to A. Mann by ill informed posters. The real trick of the shorts and their disinformation campaign is that if you repeat a lie often enough you will eventually get some people to believe it. I sometimes wonder if some long term investors and believers aren't starting to get Stockholm syndrome... |
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Post by BD on Feb 18, 2015 16:40:02 GMT -5
Just a general commentary on shorts, their M.O., and message boards:
I'm not really sure how many years it has been thus far that financial message boards (and social media in general) have been significantly in the forefront in the landscape of "battleground" stocks, but I would think that the amount of time is but a blink of an eye relative to the lifetime of shorting strategies in the overall market.
One reason I've been so active on boards like this is that I believe wholeheartedly that the existence of public forums like this (along with related FB, Twitter, etc. locales) are slowly but surely eating into the bottom line of those who short good companies by utilizing FUD campaigns. That was the feeling I had during the entire GMCR run-up (during the Great Recession) while my GMCR board kept many of us investors grounded in reality.
It takes a while, really, to move from being a novice investor in a modern technology-driven company (whether the technology is primarily electronic, mechanical or biotech) to being an investor who understands in his/her gut what the merits of the company are, and whether something being said "out there" in the media is accurate or full of FUD. And this kind of board is one of the ways to accelerate that transformation.
Shorts, and their paid shills, have been operating under the assumption that retail investors will be getting the bulk of their subjective input from the most popular free investing sites (SA, MF, The Street (ugh), etc.) and they seem to have a pretty generous budget for hit pieces. The "good guys", OTOH, are probably busy having a life and just believing in the company and its products, so the media balance always seems tipped toward the short side. Hence, it's good to have a place one can really trust for a regular dose of reality. IMO, this is that place...even if some members feel we're perpetually wearing rose-colored glasses. I don't get that feeling at all; there's a difference between being optimistic and being a pumper. I don't think there's anyone here who doesn't recognize that distinction in the posts made here.
I say all this now purely with the hope that members here will find, within themselves, the path to reduction of anxiety while we wait out our sown seeds. The PPS is going to bounce around like a jumping bean on steroids, regardless of anything else, while this remains a battleground stock...and that's likely to be for quite a while.
Sometimes the price action is depressing, and at other times it can be a pleasant surprise (the close today, for example...the million-share buy in the last 5 minutes!), but I've found that if I don't let myself get all giddy on the runs, I won't get quite as depressed on the drawdowns. When there start being more runs than drawdowns, as it appears to now be the case, that's just an opportunity to really relax and enjoy the ride.
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Post by jpg on Feb 18, 2015 17:22:02 GMT -5
Just a general commentary on shorts, their M.O., and message boards: I'm not really sure how many years it has been thus far that financial message boards (and social media in general) have been significantly in the forefront in the landscape of "battleground" stocks, but I would think that the amount of time is but a blink of an eye relative to the lifetime of shorting strategies in the overall market. One reason I've been so active on boards like this is that I believe wholeheartedly that the existence of public forums like this (along with related FB, Twitter, etc. locales) are slowly but surely eating into the bottom line of those who short good companies by utilizing FUD campaigns. That was the feeling I had during the entire GMCR run-up (during the Great Recession) while my GMCR board kept many of us investors grounded in reality. It takes a while, really, to move from being a novice investor in a modern technology-driven company (whether the technology is primarily electronic, mechanical or biotech) to being an investor who understands in his/her gut what the merits of the company are, and whether something being said "out there" in the media is accurate or full of FUD. And this kind of board is one of the ways to accelerate that transformation. Shorts, and their paid shills, have been operating under the assumption that retail investors will be getting the bulk of their subjective input from the most popular free investing sites (SA, MF, The Street (ugh), etc.) and they seem to have a pretty generous budget for hit pieces. The "good guys", OTOH, are probably busy having a life and just believing in the company and its products, so the media balance always seems tipped toward the short side. Hence, it's good to have a place one can really trust for a regular dose of reality. IMO, this is that place...even if some members feel we're perpetually wearing rose-colored glasses. I don't get that feeling at all; there's a difference between being optimistic and being a pumper. I don't think there's anyone here who doesn't recognize that distinction in the posts made here. I say all this now purely with the hope that members here will find, within themselves, the path to reduction of anxiety while we wait out our sown seeds. The PPS is going to bounce around like a jumping bean on steroids, regardless of anything else, while this remains a battleground stock...and that's likely to be for quite a while. Sometimes the price action is depressing, and at other times it can be a pleasant surprise (the close today, for example...the million-share buy in the last 5 minutes!), but I've found that if I don't let myself get all giddy on the runs, I won't get quite as depressed on the drawdowns. When there start being more runs than drawdowns, as it appears to now be the case, that's just an opportunity to really relax and enjoy the ride. You could maybe even build an investment business around a well run and disciplined board. Varied expertise, points of views and trust are the essential ingredients? |
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Post by BD on Feb 18, 2015 17:25:39 GMT -5
jpg, I think one of the main reasons these boards work as well as they do is that the staff is an all-volunteer army. Think about how long it took to build up trust in the "system" here... now imagine if that would even have been possible had this been a for-profit endeavor!
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Post by papihoyos on Feb 19, 2015 6:46:56 GMT -5
Is it really non-profit? True you may not get paid for running the site but you profit from the opinions and analysis of its members. lol
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Post by liane on Feb 19, 2015 8:36:33 GMT -5
Is it really non-profit? True you may not get paid for running the site but you profit from the opinions and analysis of its members. lol As do you!  |
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Post by BD on Feb 19, 2015 9:31:19 GMT -5
Is it really non-profit? True you may not get paid for running the site but you profit from the opinions and analysis of its members. lol Well, we don't file corporate tax returns, anyway... |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 19, 2015 10:49:37 GMT -5
If you borrow a million shares at $7.18 at %18 annual interest, drive the price down to $7.17 and sell your million shares you make just about $96,000 dollars profit. Not a bad days pay. Why would you not do it as long as you can borrow the shares?
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Post by ezrasfund on Feb 19, 2015 10:58:40 GMT -5
If you borrow a million shares at $7.18 at %18 annual interest, drive the price down to $7.17 and sell your million shares you make just about $96,000 dollars profit. Not a bad days pay. Why would you not do it as long as you can borrow the shares? You can sell the 1 million shares to help drive the price down, but you only have a profit on paper, not in the bank. Now you have to buy back those 1 million shares to close out your trade without driving the price up and before those interest payments eat up your profits. Like musical chairs, it's a lot of fun until the music stops. |
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Post by trenddiver on Feb 19, 2015 11:02:53 GMT -5
If you borrow a million shares at $7.18 at %18 annual interest, drive the price down to $7.17 and sell your million shares you make just about $96,000 dollars profit. Not a bad days pay. Why would you not do it as long as you can borrow the shares? Your math is wrong. You would make $10,000 less the cost of borrowing. Not a great return for a $7mil investment considering the risk. |
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Post by tbone on Feb 19, 2015 11:08:05 GMT -5
If you borrow a million shares at $7.18 at %18 annual interest, drive the price down to $7.17 and sell your million shares you make just about $96,000 dollars profit. Not a bad days pay. Why would you not do it as long as you can borrow the shares? Your math is wrong. You would make $10,000 less the cost of borrowing. Not a great return for a $7mil investment considering the risk. Besides the $10,000 gain minus commissions, $3452 a day to borrow at $7. I don't see getting in and out of a million shares without moving price either. Had coffee yet? |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 19, 2015 11:12:24 GMT -5
"Your math is wrong. You would make $10,000 less the cost of borrowing. Not a great return for a $7mil investment considering the risk."
Yes you are correct. Still, $6,000 not a bad days pay. Commission is negligible.
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Post by ezrasfund on Feb 19, 2015 11:35:23 GMT -5
"Your math is wrong. You would make $10,000 less the cost of borrowing. Not a great return for a $7mil investment considering the risk." Yes you are correct. Still, $6,000 not a bad days pay. Commission is negligible.
Try putting in a limit order to sell 1 million shares (and then buy them back because you will need to do both). You might only get a partial fill for the usual $8.95/trade commission and then need to place another order. |
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