opc
Lab Rat
Posts: 30
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Post by opc on Aug 17, 2013 15:36:27 GMT -5
There’s been a lot of discussion about these results. Let’s start with some FACTS:
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Post by liane on Aug 17, 2013 18:35:43 GMT -5
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Post by mdcenter61 on Aug 17, 2013 20:34:23 GMT -5
Finejob, OPC, many thanks! Nice that you don't have to go into stealth mode on this forum - LOL. The longer I am removed from the emotion of Thursday and Friday the more convinced I am of the utter hit job manipulation put on this data, and the more convinced I am to stay the course. Have a ton tied up in this stock in Roth and regular accounts, so seeing $100K drops over a couple of days was a B*llbuster, but I'm in it to win it. Mike
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Post by StevieRay on Aug 17, 2013 21:16:15 GMT -5
I'm in the same boat friend...lost 112k Friday and 123k Thursday. However, I really don't consider it a loss per say but rather an unlocked gain. The funny thing is that I'm not kicking myself either like usually do with some speculative plays. The story here is very compelling and I'm here for the duration and I expect to see many ups and downs along the way. So hang in there. It's going to be a rough ride but I really believe it will be well worth the emotional turmoil.
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Post by StevieRay on Aug 17, 2013 21:19:53 GMT -5
liane, you should consider adding this to the resource library if you haven't already. |
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Post by mannmade on Aug 17, 2013 22:29:56 GMT -5
Understand the pain my friends... Cost me 7 figures this past week or so... (Not looking to boast, just stating a very painful fact) but this is part of the process and I am in this as a patient and stable long... Fortunately was almost all paper profit. Getting ready to buy more. I believe in the science and Al Mann. "Don't follow the ship, follow the Captain." This is a test of conviction... I know everyone has a different tolerance for risk... But Afrezza is a very compelling product w a very good story so far... I have watched what t1 diabetes has done to my brother since he was 8.
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Post by mdcenter61 on Aug 17, 2013 23:12:35 GMT -5
Yep, we have to look at the ultimate benefit as stated by mannmade, what this drug will ultimately mean to millions of diabetics, including my mom and daughter in law. I ain't going anywhere!! Am enjoying intelligent conversation (and commiseration) on this and previous forum to offset the juveniles on the Y Board. Yall hang in there as well!
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Post by mdcenter61 on Aug 17, 2013 23:25:45 GMT -5
For whatever its worth (probably zero) saw this little nugget about MNKD from one of those stock services:
Hi Michael
A wild week on Wall Street which followed our Sunday warningon Stocktwits of a 10% market correction already underway. We didn't have to wait for the market to fold up, we already saw the patterns emerging from the 1710 top. In the future we will be working on more frequent market updates for our subscribers.
Loosely, we see the SP 500 broader index retracing a good chunk of the last 8-9 month rally and taking the index as low as the 1530-1580 ranges, with 1540-1560 the sweet spot of a likely meandering correction into September.
This is a time when you build your watch list of stocks you are interested in and as we said days ago take some profits in the meantime.
Let's examine a few samples:
MNKD- Well, we did not expect the stock to drop from 7.95 to 5.77 in 48 hours, but that is what happened. Sometimes these declines and or rallies in a name can take on a life of their own. Witnesss the run from $16 to $23 in a matter of a week or so on our LITB position we recommended, now back near $19.
MNKD should recover once some of this arbitrage wears off so we are going to continue to add slowly to our position during this market correction and we expect a full recovery and then some. Most investors do not like to buy stocks on sale, and we do. Recall our NQ position going from 9.20 to 7.10, then to 19 for a 110% gain round trip! How about DATA? We recommended at 58, we added at 52, and then it ran to $75 earlier this week before backing off to 66 ranges.
Volatility is actually your friend when you do the research and understand valuations and what you own. Big drops such as MNKD, NQ, DATA, MUX and others we have profiled often give the investor a great risk adjusted entry, but just dont buy it all in one day... scale your way in!!
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Post by mannmade on Aug 17, 2013 23:33:24 GMT -5
Thank you... I think once the dust settles we will see a nice gain over next 6 to 8 months and that really is not too far off. Especially when consider patient pool will likely have to wait another 10 to 12 months on top of that.... I for one am willing to wait...
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Post by liane on Aug 18, 2013 7:34:16 GMT -5
liane, you should consider adding this to the resource library if you haven't already. Done! FYI - any member can post links to the Resource Library. |
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Post by spiro on Aug 18, 2013 9:25:47 GMT -5
OPC,
Great post and thanks for the outstanding rebuttal. It is my belief that potential partners will be impressed by the latest results. Hopefully, the long awaited partnership or buyout is now a real possibility. Because of the enormous potential worldwide market for Afrezza, I think the data is strong enough to get MNKD several substantial offers for a partnership. I haven't posted on any board since the last CRL. i like the format of this board.
Spiro
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Post by shmaser on Aug 18, 2013 10:53:34 GMT -5
Opc, excellent post. One thing you failed to mention is the explanation company gave to 175 superiority issue. When they mentioned .50 for superiority is was based on a .025 p- value( eg margin of error value). Results came in at .40 with a p- value of .0001 this is a better superiority score than .50 with p at .025.
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Post by liane on Aug 18, 2013 12:10:04 GMT -5
This is from Spiro - I think you meant to post it here, but it got sent as a PM to me. I would like to solicit opinions on how this study compares with MNKD's 171 and 175. What do you think? www.bmj.com/content/339/bmj.b4324 |
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Post by gallen on Aug 18, 2013 17:33:00 GMT -5
Many thanks for the well-written summary, OPC. Breath of fresh air here...
gacohen
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opc
Lab Rat
Posts: 30
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Post by opc on Aug 18, 2013 18:41:02 GMT -5
Opc, excellent post. One thing you failed to mention is the explanation company gave to 175 superiority issue. When they mentioned .50 for superiority is was based on a .025 p- value( eg margin of error value). Results came in at .40 with a p- value of .0001 this is a better superiority score than .50 with p at .025. shmaser, thank you for that tidbit. somehow i missed it in the call. i must admit being on the webcast so i missed the first 15min's or so. i will listen again. Everyone, welcome! ...and thank you for the kind words. Another thanks to Liane for suggesting the move. .....liane, still would prefer we make that change over at agora. ....trust me. brentie and i have done this once before.. :-) |
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