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Post by mannmade on Feb 26, 2015 15:33:41 GMT -5
Let's say Afrezza captures 10% of the US diabetes market which is about 29m currently identified diabetics
That's 2.9m patients
Multiply 2.9 million patients by 3 (for number of shots no longer taken) times 365 days per year and that equals 3,175,500,0000 less needles in the trash per year.
Now I must disclaim I do not recall the number of diabetics on both basal and prandial but just a thought here as needles are hazardous waste and often misused if disposed of incorrectly.
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Post by otherottawaguy on Feb 26, 2015 16:27:00 GMT -5
Let say they capture 5% of world market of 300M or 15M * 3 * 365 = 16.2B (billion)
And my other favourite numbers:
1% (market share) * 300M (current market) * $2500 (low ball annual cost) * 25% (mnkd share after exp) / 450M (diluted share count) * 18 (low ball P/E)
= $75 PPS
Note: $75 is for each percent of worldwide market share captured and at 1% exceeds the projected capacity of Danbury plant by 50% or approx. 1 M annual dosages.
See you at the finish line,
OOG
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Post by babaoriley on Feb 26, 2015 16:27:26 GMT -5
mannmade, you're grasping for needles in a haystack!
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Post by kball on Feb 26, 2015 16:44:17 GMT -5
Let say they capture 5% of world market of 300M or 15M * 3 * 365 = 16.2B (billion) And my other favourite numbers: 1% (market share) * 300M (current market) * $2500 (low ball annual cost) * 25% (mnkd share after exp) / 450M (diluted share count) * 18 (low ball P/E)
= $75 PPS
Note: $75 is for each percent of worldwide market share captured and at 1% exceeds the projected capacity of Danbury plant by 50% or approx. 1 M annual dosages. See you at the finish line, OOG I would think that the 2500 is only in the US...and may be less or much less in other countries. As are other prescription drugs in most cases (in other countries). Happy to be corrected on this if others have better info |
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Post by otherottawaguy on Feb 26, 2015 17:03:43 GMT -5
The current US price is actually closer to $3500 ($280 for the 8UX60,4UX30). I did a calc somewhere that shows a potential mark of 9.8M people worldwide that this might be applicable to and that can afford it. This market is also growing just to add fire to the conversation.
OOG
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Post by mnholdem on Feb 26, 2015 17:09:31 GMT -5
That is some serious trash talk, mannmade.  ? |
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Post by mannmade on Feb 26, 2015 17:32:02 GMT -5
That is some serious trash talk, mannmade. ? Right up there with KG and Kobe I guess...  |
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Post by mnholdem on Feb 27, 2015 4:56:02 GMT -5
The Kid (what we called him his rookie year) is back. I wish I'd gotten tickets, but those sold out in a few hours. I did watch his "welcome back" game from home, though. It's good to have KG back with the Timberwolves. I hope the Vikings don't lose Adrian Peterson to Dallas...now that the courts have reversed his suspension by the NFL.
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Post by cybergym66 on Feb 27, 2015 6:05:35 GMT -5
The Kid (what we called him his rookie year) is back. I wish I'd gotten tickets, but those sold out in a few hours. I did watch his "welcome back" game from home, though. It's good to have KG back with the Timberwolves. I hope the Vikings don't lose Adrian Peterson to Dallas...now that the courts have reversed his suspension by the NFL. The NFL hasn't learned their lesson...they said they would appeal the AD ruling! I'd say this is another black eye for the NFL but I think they're out of eyes! |
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Post by kball on Feb 27, 2015 8:55:23 GMT -5
The Kid (what we called him his rookie year) is back. I wish I'd gotten tickets, but those sold out in a few hours. I did watch his "welcome back" game from home, though. It's good to have KG back with the Timberwolves. I hope the Vikings don't lose Adrian Peterson to Dallas...now that the courts have reversed his suspension by the NFL. The NFL hasn't learned their lesson...they said they would appeal the AD ruling! I'd say this is another black eye for the NFL but I think they're out of eyes!Every time i hear that phrase i think back to a radio interview about 15 years ago Jim Rome had with Joe Montana. Joe misheard the question of too many black eyes...and was astonished and wouldn't answer it at first because he thought Rome said "black guys". They figured it out pretty quickly and the interview went on without incident. A couple months after that the gal who cuts my hair tells me she went out w her ex-boyfriend again the night before. And i asked 'for an occasion?' But with the blow dryer going she heard 'fornication?' Both misunderstandings could've been really bad but luckily weren't. |
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