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Post by otherottawaguy on Apr 23, 2015 9:17:51 GMT -5
For the dumb guy in the room here I am looking for some opinions/clarification here on how to calculate the current script levels and annual subscribers to Afrezza.
If we have a new script show up in the NRx at week X, that would show a new script has just been picked up.
3 Months Prescription The script is for a 3 month supply and the all 3 month are pick up at that point.
Does this NRx number then count in the TRx for the full 90 Days which includes the NRx period ?
What happens to the counts at X + 3 months + Y, does this script count drop off the TRx count and republish as a NRx which is added to the TRx?
1 Month Prescription with 2 refills NRx occurs at month x patient gets 1st box At x + 1 month patient gets 2nd box, NRx drops off but script continues in TRx At x + 2 months patient get 3rd box, script continues in TRx
At x + 3 months script gets reported as a new NRx drops from the old TRx but is added back as a NRx into the TRx total.
Is there a methodology to determine the numbers of drop outs using the basic scenarios above?
How does it affect the model if we assume a 90 unit box was supposed to be a 1 month supply but are now seeing that it closer to 1.5 boxes per month due to customization by users.
OOG
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Post by notamnkdmillionaire on Apr 23, 2015 9:42:42 GMT -5
Unfortunately, trying to determine anything associated with scripts now is an exercise in futility. The lack of significant script growth and Sanofi keeping things secret for "competitive" reasons is the culprit here. Hopefully Sanofi will release the Afrezza Kraken sometime this year and finally make their shareholders happy for once.  |
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Post by nelkan on Apr 23, 2015 12:25:31 GMT -5
Sanofi knows exactly how many scripts have been filled for Afrezza and has a decent idea as to how many samples have been distributed to how many patients. There is, of course, some legitimacy to keeping the numbers secret. However, that secrecy has an unintended consequence of sending the message that Afrezza is not "taking off"--which runs the risk of being a self-fulfilling prophecy. (Prescribers want to know that they are one of many not one of a few). Perhaps Sanofi will reveal the quantity of Afrezza distributed and in use in their shareholders meeting on April 30.
I truly hope that the numbers will support their actions (inactions).
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Post by otherottawaguy on Apr 23, 2015 12:42:41 GMT -5
To bring it back on topic (please do not stray).
How to NRx numbers flow into TRx.
When renewing (old script is expired, no more refills), a new NRx generated and added back into the TRx Total?
Need to account for the Renewal not being in the TRx count by dropping 1 off upon renewal.
This NRx then flows into the TRx count for no net change.
This is what I am trying to confirm.
OOG
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Post by rockstarrick on Apr 23, 2015 13:17:49 GMT -5
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