|
Post by dstevenson on May 1, 2015 13:50:50 GMT -5
I know everyone says its long term give it time, but with it down over 60% from after approval, is anyone concerned here?
We aren't getting much confidence from mnkd or sny imo
|
|
|
Post by cubonwallstreet on May 1, 2015 13:56:51 GMT -5
Disappointed is a better word than concerned. A prudent, long investor knew this would take time and knew the stock was controlled by the shorts. As many have repeatedly said: the fundamentals have not changed; only the share price.
|
|
|
Post by savzak on May 1, 2015 13:58:52 GMT -5
Though I'll admit that the plummeting share price does occasionally cause me to second guess myself and my "larger than it should be" investment in MNKD, I recognize that's primarily a knee jerk, psychological reaction to my shrinking account balance.
But my unsettledness is far more attributed to the constant, nagging recognition of my lost opportunity costs. I've been invested in MNKD for a very long time. I'm sick that I could have waited through it all and bought at $4 bucks while Sanofi is marketing our FDA approved therapy and everyone who has tried it is singing its praises all over the internet.
|
|
|
Post by newmnkdinvestor on May 1, 2015 14:04:18 GMT -5
I have been investing trading for 6 months. I thought I was pretty lucky coming across this stock. I am successful in a stressful business so I can deal but this is a new experience to me. I keep telling myself its not gone unless I sell. I have $10,000 more to invest in the stock to bring down my cost basis down. I am expecting the stock to get destroyed when earnings come around.
|
|
|
Post by kball on May 1, 2015 14:06:20 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by petech on May 1, 2015 14:44:50 GMT -5
Not in least. In fact, rather than buy more shares with this month's Fidelity MNKD DRIP check....I'm going to take that money and buy some long-term options. I'm pretty excited.
As I've stated in the past....for me...it is all about how well the medicine works. Each passing day only adds to my confidence and I have zero fear Sanofi partnered to kill Afrezza....so we're on the doorstep of DTC...and thus the landslide I have expected since day 1. You can search my post history for my last comment on whether I am worried or not (some of them were to you)....same thing applies today.
Were I a trader, on the other hand, I'd be much less happy. I understand that side's concern.
|
|
|
Post by cjc04 on May 1, 2015 15:03:24 GMT -5
My ONLY "concern" is that it is becoming a reality that this will take much longer than any of us had hoped.
This "slow launch" and low sales numbers all appear to be as planned, which I'm ok with. I started realizing a few weeks ago that this was more like an in house trial to get things under control. Totally seems like the right thing to do, just wasn't expecting it.... The SNY loan is starting to make sense to me. I NEVER thought we'd need to touch it, but now I can see it's there because "slow" was the plan.
If we're some how working toward a share price based on earrings, we're in for a long haul.
|
|
|
Post by babaoriley on May 1, 2015 15:03:58 GMT -5
Nothing so far would indicate it doesn't work at least as well or better than I expected. The longer term risks still are out there, effects of long term use, someone comes up with something better, etc.
This decreasing price is a big disappointment, of course, but a heck of an opportunity for people with a little longer time horizon to get in.
The share price is acting a bit like VVUS and ARNA, which I never thought possible, given the marketplace, but, we haven't really given it a fair chance yet.
The shorts have many convinced it's dead money for some time to come, and they may be correct, as MNKD hasn't come out with anything new.
Lots of smart people on this board have been dead wrong about this stock (as an investment) - law of averages (powerful law, by the way) says they will be right sooner or later, though, so long as one of the longer term risks doesn't come up and bite us.
|
|
|
Post by _neil on May 1, 2015 15:10:23 GMT -5
I used to think I was a long but I am extemely concerned at this price. I got in after approval and have a quite of bit of red ink to cover before I break even. I invested more than I should have into this and I'm hanging on by the thin threads of evidence that the formulation actually works and SNY is too mature a company to partner up with a small cap with intentions to destroy it. I got in asking primarily these questions :
1.If you can get your medicine that's faster in and faster out in inhaler form instead of an injection (provided the convenience isn't too expensive) why wouldn't you? 2.If the company that has this medicine makes claims that other drugs could be inhaled to bypass the liver/better absorption at lower dosage etc., why wouldn't it try?
My answers to both those questions remain the same today as they were when I got in. But looking at the insider sales and the generally uninspiring leadership, I am starting to learn that there's more than what meets the eye here. I am getting the hell out if it ever hits 6$ again. It will still be a loss but that's something I can stomach.
|
|
|
Post by babaoriley on May 1, 2015 15:17:56 GMT -5
"I used to think I was a long..."
poorneil, are you unsure as to what you used to think? My memory is bad, too! However, it might help jar your memory if I tell you that most of us here never thought you were a long on this stock. Helpful?
By the way, if the stock every hits $6 again, that probably would be exactly the wrong time to sell. I have every confidence that we will hit $6 again, just not too sure when that might be.
In the meantime, I'm comfortable with the thought that had I not had my money in MNKD, I would surely have blown it on other stuff.
|
|
|
Post by savzak on May 1, 2015 15:30:18 GMT -5
In the meantime, I'm comfortable with the thought that had I not had my money in MNKD, I would surely have blown it on other stuff. See, that's the problem. If I hadn't invested in MNKD back in 2008 or whenever it was, I'd have invested in Apple and any number of successful natural gas plays and MasterCard and Visa and Tesla. And I'd have traded them well and in a timely way. And I'd have made at least 500% or 600% on my money in that time frame.
I know this because I'm a very good investor.
No, really, I am.
|
|
|
Post by dstevenson on May 1, 2015 15:30:42 GMT -5
When I mention insider sales, Matt tells me he hasn't sold...
|
|
|
Post by gomnkd on May 1, 2015 15:38:17 GMT -5
The stock is without support right now. It is like a worm on a hot deck, with birds circling. Many longs will go through fear, panic and capitulation. We are only seeing fear emerge.
(Fugacity's blood is boiling now and is going to go apeshit on me. But Wait)
After capitulation, shorts will cover. We'll see a sharp rally that'll catch everyone by surprise. Months of losses will be erased in a few days.
Even though MNKD mismanaged a few things, Al Mann had put so much capital and often times at prices above the prevailing market price.He could have put debt and taken co. through bankruptcy wiping out common. He didn't. At partnership time, he would have seen and agreed to their marketing plan. I still have faith in Al Mann. Whatever he promised about Afrezza is shown to be true now. His explanation about A1C was spot on (he hand wrote and faxed me his thoughts that I posted to my blog).
I'm sitting on big losses which will surely get bigger. I predicted it and still didn't trade. For me this is the time to hold if you believe in the product. If you don't you should sell and move on. This is baptism by fire, and if your conviction is made of wax, it'll melt.
OK, now I made Fugacity & others happy.
|
|
|
Post by bretzyboy on May 1, 2015 15:39:07 GMT -5
Just my opinion. The thesis for investing in Mannkind is still valid to me. I try not to focus on short term variations when I believe in the bigger picture.
|
|
|
Post by dstevenson on May 1, 2015 15:40:12 GMT -5
This is the optimistic side of me
Management has done a poor job with retaining share holder value. Maybe there is a buy out already worked out in the partnership and sny needs time to validate what this drug can actually do since the clinical trails were very controlled and imo didn't allow A to really flex its muscles. This would make the silence and lack of energy from this staff.
If I wanted to play devils advocate it'll be why is the ceo selling all the time
|
|