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Post by brentie on May 6, 2015 14:54:30 GMT -5
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Post by compound26 on May 6, 2015 15:31:42 GMT -5
IMHO, there is a good chance that in five years MannKind will be where Regeneron(REGN) is today. Five years ago, Regeneron has a market cap of around 2 billion and today its market cap is around 48 billion. Basically, a 20 times increase.
Today, Mannkind's market is around 2 billion (a little bit less than that at today's closing price). In five years, if Afrezza sells as well as Lantus does today (at around 6 or 7 billion per year), at 25% royalty rate (per Mannkind's management), Mannkind's income will be about 1.5 to 1.75 billion. A 50 billion market cap will put Mannkind at around 30 times P/E on Afrezza alone. Given there will also be additional income that will come from other Technosphere® applications, that valuation won't be unreasonable. And given Afrezza's effectiveness, by the time it is approved and marketed worldwide (i.e., US, EU, Japan, China and rest of the world), a sales matching that of Lantus sales today won't be out of reach.
Interestingly Sanofi owns 30% of Regeneron. Not sure if Sanofi will similarly take some equity interest in Mannkind within the next few years.
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Post by compound26 on May 6, 2015 17:05:39 GMT -5
Thanks, brentie. For easier reference, I am pasting the report here. www.wdbj7.com/news/local/new-inhaled-insulin-takes-the-place-of-mealtime-injections/32845044
New inhaled insulin takes the place of mealtime injections
"Patients like it," said Dr. Bailey. "I think it's going to be very popular."
Jean Jadhon, jjadhon@wdbj7.com POSTED: 04:28 PM EDT May 06, 2015 UPDATED: 04:40 PM EDT May 06, 2015 ROANOKE, Va. - A new device used to take insulin is now making its way to patients in Roanoke. It's an inhaler that takes the place of mealtime injections many diabetics must give themselves. MannKind Corporation got Food and Drug Administration approval last year for its Afrezza insulin delivery system. At the busy Endocrinology Associates office in Roanoke, the inhaler became available to patients less than a month ago. "Patients like it," said Endocrinologist Dr. D. James Bailey. "I think it's going to be very popular."
The device itself is actually quite small, about the size of a whistle. It allows diabetics to inhale a powdered form of insulin. "This allows people to take their mealtime insulin, the fast acting insulin without having to take an injection," said Dr. Bailey. "They can take it with just a short puff on the delivery system." The powdered form of insulin comes in small cartridges. The patient puts the cartridge in the inhaler device and closes the top which automatically punctures the foil on the cartridge. "All they have to do is remove the little tip (on the inhaler) and then inhale and it goes right in so it doesn't have a propellant," Dr. Bailey said. Dr. Bailey's patients are now just beginning to use Afrezza. So far the feedback is positive. "They like not having to take injections and in fact they're starting to tell their friends who take injections at meals about this," said Dr. Bailey. "So we've had a lot of inquires."
Inhaled insulin is not new. About seven years ago a much larger inhaler by Pfizer pharmaceuticals was introduced but it did not prove successful. This new device from Mannkind Corporation is different. The device itself is much smaller and doctors hope the powdered insulin will be tolerated well by patients. Afrezza is for short term insulin use at meals only and it's not for everyone. People with lung problems such as Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disorder (COPD, ) emphysema, asthma and people who smoke won't be able to use it, said Dr. Bailey. • Copyright © 2015, WDBJ7 |
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Post by EveningOfTheDay on May 9, 2015 17:36:45 GMT -5
Completely agree with this, "MNKD Could Be Next … Eventually
Sanofi itself could buy out MNKD, forget about the 35% royalty, and turn up the heat on its sales force. After all, a big reason Afrezza isn’t yet popular is that people don’t even know it exists. A handheld inhaler that delivers insulin instead of a needle? It sells itself once the market becomes educated."
But I guess that is why most of us are still here. Can't wait to see it happen. |
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Post by kc on May 10, 2015 17:11:52 GMT -5
I posted this on Ihub earlier today..
THE PERFECT STORM
I wouldn't bet on seeing the share price hit that low. Perhaps but if it does you can count on massive accumulation by an activist investor who knows how to get shareholder value back for his investment and yours. This disinformation is a game that Wall Street plays with many bios. They see the outcome in the future and not today. The big hurdles that Mannkind had to overcome are past it.
Big money know how the game is played. Sanofi knows how the game is played. Do you think Sanofi wants Pfizer, Lilly or Norvo, Glaxo or some other Cash rich Pharma to buyout Mannkind on the Cheap?
There are a lot of rich Pharma's with cash to do a deal all it takes is an offer to buy MannKind and the game is on. Do you think that when it ends that Sanofi wouldn't be the successful buyer?
Based on Friday's close $3.81 x 406,000,000 or $1,546,860,000 do you think if Norvo came along and offered $10.00 per share or $4,060,000,000 that they could buy the company? Of course not as the bidding war would be on and all the top 10 Pharmas would enter the bidding war for Mannkind.
So the opening bid of $10.00 would then have to be topped by somebody with Sanofi eventually winning or the Mannkind shareholder winning. What is the ultimate value? Who knows. The blood is in the ocean and the Sharks will eventually circle and get ready to take a bite if the price is too juicy to pass up.
Look at the names of the top 25 Pharmas. They can create THE PERFECT STORM for MannKind
Shareholders
Look at how many cheap shares traded Friday 19,000,000 shares. You think it was hedges dumping them? Or buying them from scared retail shareholders?
Look at April 2, 2014 when 97,396,210 shares traded that was almost 20% of the available shares.
All I can say is hold on for the ride as its bound to be a bumpy one but worth holding on for as our best days are going to be in the future. THE PERFECT STORM is coming. Be prepared.
The faithful will be saved like Moses parting the Red Sea. Who among us is faithful?
I know who they are and we will stay long on MannKind.
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Post by gamblerjag on May 10, 2015 20:26:00 GMT -5
nice KC... though I don't even think it will come to a bidding war... but if it did and it did start at 10.. you can bet that it would be surpassed to 20 quite easily... I mean come on 8 billion? Thanks for the read.
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Post by kc on May 10, 2015 22:09:14 GMT -5
I agree with you. It was just for illustration purpose to make the point of value. The pundits and minipulators paint the picture of no value at all for the entire company. I guess we all will eventually learn who is right and who is wrong. nice KC... though I don't even think it will come to a bidding war... but if it did and it did start at 10.. you can bet that it would be surpassed to 20 quite easily... I mean come on 8 billion? Thanks for the read. |
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