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Post by gamblerjag on May 9, 2015 21:22:14 GMT -5
ok.. so lets say that SNY dragging their feet on purpose.. Mid August is the timeframe where MNKD can say hasta.......... will they? are there any other suitors? If so it really doesn't matter how much SNY was dragging their feet.. MNKD will say hasta SNY especially if there are other BP ready to chime in. This is why I don't think SNY was dragging their feet but if they were I"m sure they are changing their tune with social media results.. MNKD should get a 20% additional premium above and expected buyout price for "bad faith"
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Post by obamayoumama on May 9, 2015 22:46:39 GMT -5
There has never been 1200 Afrezza reps, the number is closer to 800. Still pathetic results so far. I spoke to MNKD and they stated that the 1200 might have been the total number of people at the conference, but like Spiro stated more like 800 sales reps and of those not all are exclusive to Afrezza. Just read the social media of people using Afrezza and word of mouth will sell this drug. Wait until the early adopters come back after six months of use. Endos are going to get the front line experiences from these early adopters. Patients will demand Afrezza!
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Post by jimo on May 10, 2015 7:15:37 GMT -5
Of all the very good posts in this thread, this one, sounding ominous as it is, has me the most unsettled. Though i get why it would be their main focus. Just hoping 2 drugs by 1 pharma in the same space can share and even dominate an ever increasing pie Obviously Sanofi giving up is the big deal that scares everyone. Then again why would they? It's not as if Afrezza is that expensive to keep around and nothing would hurt their competition more then this while giving them a really interesting tool. I don't recall many pharmas giving up on highly effective drugs. These things take time and Sanofi knows this. In the drug business we are still very very early in the game. JPG & EoD- I'm not saying Sanofi is giving up/lost interest as I don't think that is the case but after dialog with a few Sanofi reps I'm getting the vibe they are prioritizing T over A for some period of time. I recommend you find a rep responsible for diabetes sales and ask them first hand - this is our real blind spot. This is also a blindspot to Mannkind and as Matt P. actually returned a call a few weeks ago after my wife left him a vmail. He was kind enough to call back and was very nice but he shared their surprise at the slow uptake, said we're working to fix the "problems" and mentioned there was never any language about a "dedicated" sales force. He asked my wife to forward one of the emails we had from a Sanofi rep. That whole conversation blew my mind and showed me MannKind has zero control or leverage right now. We're on Sanofi time now. My most recent interaction is a party line of "access to physicians is tougher now, spirometry requirements have delayed uptake, etc..". These are all things both teams knew as we waited for the past year. Sanofi has some window (not sure exact timing) before the Lantus generics and Toujeo competitors hit the market New CEO has to seize the opp to keep the $7B annual revenue stream intact. Many thought the new CEO was great for Afrezza as he had experience with this at Pfizer. If he did it was experience based in reality that at best this is a hard change to make that will take time. As for the reps, I was off, my mistake 1200 to 800 - thanks Spiro. Still bad performance as those numbers look like the early docs are just writing more scripts and not many new docs writing scripts. That's just my perception as we're stuck in the 200s which doesn't make sense with all the real-life evidence on social media and support from the online diabetic community. I'm back to waiting this out again.
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Post by kball on May 10, 2015 7:25:02 GMT -5
Obviously Sanofi giving up is the big deal that scares everyone. Then again why would they? It's not as if Afrezza is that expensive to keep around and nothing would hurt their competition more then this while giving them a really interesting tool. I don't recall many pharmas giving up on highly effective drugs. These things take time and Sanofi knows this. In the drug business we are still very very early in the game. JPG & EoD- I'm not saying Sanofi is giving up/lost interest as I don't think that is the case but after dialog with a few Sanofi reps I'm getting the vibe they are prioritizing T over A for some period of time. I recommend you find a rep responsible for diabetes sales and ask them first hand - this is our real blind spot. This is also a blindspot to Mannkind and as Matt P. actually returned a call a few weeks ago after my wife left him a vmail. He was kind enough to call back and was very nice but he shared their surprise at the slow uptake, said we're working to fix the "problems" and mentioned there was never any language about a "dedicated" sales force. He asked my wife to forward one of the emails we had from a Sanofi rep. That whole conversation blew my mind and showed me MannKind has zero control or leverage right now. We're on Sanofi time now. My most recent interaction is a party line of "access to physicians is tougher now, spirometry requirements have delayed uptake, etc..". These are all things both teams knew as we waited for the past year. Sanofi has some window (not sure exact timing) before the Lantus generics and Toujeo competitors hit the market New CEO has to seize the opp to keep the $7B annual revenue stream intact. Many thought the new CEO was great for Afrezza as he had experience with this at Pfizer. If he did it was experience based in reality that at best this is a hard change to make that will take time. As for the reps, I was off, my mistake 1200 to 800 - thanks Spiro. Still bad performance as those numbers look like the early docs are just writing more scripts and not many new docs writing scripts. That's just my perception as we're stuck in the 200s which doesn't make sense with all the real-life evidence on social media and support from the online diabetic community. I'm back to waiting this out again. Pardon me, but one would think reps would jump through hoops all day every day to handle "T AND A".Commence the marketing slogans. --PS I cant be responsible for puns (or anything else swirling around in my head) until the stock price gets back to around 6
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Post by gomnkd on May 10, 2015 8:06:10 GMT -5
I think Pfizer pulling out abruptly did some damage to this class of medicine. Just like some pt adopt a wait and watch attitude, many docs also do. Part of the waiting is to see if Afrezza is going to remain in the market. In 6 months, everyone will know that Afrezza is here to stay. It makes a doc look like a fool when he/she prescribes a new medicine for a chronic illness and then drug co. pulls the plug.
What is even more evil is when PFE talked about lung cancer as one of the reasons, when there was no proof to substantiate it. The soft launch conserves capital (for SNY at least) and gives wherewithal to give a lasting campaign.
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Post by ezrasfund on May 10, 2015 8:51:44 GMT -5
The problems with the uptake of Afrezza are now becoming clear. Yes, there are spirometry tests, insurance issues, and difficulties getting appointments with endocrinologists. But the real problem is that doctors are conservative and generally have no reason to change from treatment options that have worked for years. As was pointed out in this old article on Exubera's failure (worth a read www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2769732/ ) "Many other diagnostic and therapeutic measures that we regard as standard today, for example, blood glucose meters or insulin pens, were also regarded very negatively by most of the diabetologists when they were first introduced to the market." Endocrinologists have been treating diabetes "successfully" for years with a huge cohort of patients, and to say otherwise is an insult. But there are stories that point to why this inovation, and maybe all innovation, will come from a push by patients rather than from the medical community. One is the story of the early T1 users of Afrezza. Not only do many report much improved BG measures, but they say that diabetes management is no longer a full time job for them and their family. But as long as there is compliance, convenience and lifestyle factors are not so important to doctors. Patients using Afrezza may no longer have to worry about "insulin on board" and whether they will go into hypoglycemia in a few hours, but those constant fears of patients and family to not show up in HbA1c measures, and ironically, if you go too low and live your HbA1c will be even better. The other is the story of medical advances scorned and mocked by the medical community. Yes, Afrezza is much more than a medicine that can be taken with less worry that is also very convenient to use. The long term results are superior, as we all know. So what. About 20,000 people in the US die from C. diff. evey year. It can be cured in most cases by fecal transplants. Yuck. Not FDA approved. No standardized medicine yet developed. No money to be made from a cure that has been proposed for over 50 years. No doctor whose patient died could ever be faulted for not using it. They just keep dying, or living with it. In short, medicine is very consevative. First do no harm, to the patient or your practice. Marshall was a fool to suggest that stomach ulcers were caused by bacteria. Atkins was an idiot to resurrect a diet he read about that was first suggested in the 19th century and used to be common sense. And then there is the fear that inhaling anything but "pure" air could cause lung cancer. So it will be patient demand that will need to drive the uptake of Afrezza, and that will apparently take some time. Once we begin DTC advertising we will see how it goes. It is hard to believe that Al Mann would have pushed so hard to bring Afrezza to market if the benefits were not so clear and so remarkable. Many articles say he has invested almost $1 billion and 10 years of work. But it has been over 20 years that Al has been working with technosphere insulin. He may be right, but it will take more than that to be successful.
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Post by babaoriley on May 10, 2015 11:40:10 GMT -5
I finally listened to the cc. Al sounded bad. He really sounded old and doddering. I like him to participate, but only briefly and his topics should be big picture. He still knows his stuff, which is amazing, but he can't bring it like he used to. The rest was pretty typically mediocre.
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Post by ezrasfund on May 10, 2015 13:06:18 GMT -5
If you look at Al in recent photos he is much thinner. My Dad is 92, and his mind is still as sharp as ever. His memory is excellent. Like Al, though, he is getting weaker, which efeects mental energy as well as physical energy. Al should not be making long presentations, but probably refuses to give up anything he can still do.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on May 10, 2015 13:27:31 GMT -5
If you look at Al in recent photos he is much thinner. My Dad is 92, and his mind is still as sharp as ever. His memory is excellent. Like Al, though, he is getting weaker, which efeects mental energy as well as physical energy. Al should not be making long presentations, but probably refuses to give up anything he can still do. Al is the type of individual that will work until the last day of his long distinguished life, he knows no other way. Personally I would say he can do whatever pleases him and if that is talking to friends, family, shareholders, analysts, etc. then more power to him! Btw, Happy Mothers Day to all the great women out there, my 23yr. old son sent an edible arrangement today with words that are priceless to the great lady that raised him, seriously keeps life in perspective when looking outside "the investment glass". Take time to enjoy your special ladies gents, I'm about to take my sister (early onset dimentia) to lunch today (diabetes type 3 if you will), she's always had a sweet tooth and gets excited when I tell her she's about to get her sugar free caramel shake...makes you appreciate the real things in life, let Al continue to live his the way he wishes, after all I think we all could agree he deserves it wouldn't you say?
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Post by harrythekingisindahouse on May 10, 2015 13:27:48 GMT -5
Obviously Sanofi giving up is the big deal that scares everyone. Then again why would they? It's not as if Afrezza is that expensive to keep around and nothing would hurt their competition more then this while giving them a really interesting tool. I don't recall many pharmas giving up on highly effective drugs. These things take time and Sanofi knows this. In the drug business we are still very very early in the game. JPG & EoD- I'm not saying Sanofi is giving up/lost interest as I don't think that is the case but after dialog with a few Sanofi reps I'm getting the vibe they are prioritizing T over A for some period of time. I recommend you find a rep responsible for diabetes sales and ask them first hand - this is our real blind spot. This is also a blindspot to Mannkind and as Matt P. actually returned a call a few weeks ago after my wife left him a vmail. He was kind enough to call back and was very nice but he shared their surprise at the slow uptake, said we're working to fix the "problems" and mentioned there was never any language about a "dedicated" sales force. He asked my wife to forward one of the emails we had from a Sanofi rep. That whole conversation blew my mind and showed me MannKind has zero control or leverage right now. We're on Sanofi time now. My most recent interaction is a party line of "access to physicians is tougher now, spirometry requirements have delayed uptake, etc..". These are all things both teams knew as we waited for the past year. Sanofi has some window (not sure exact timing) before the Lantus generics and Toujeo competitors hit the market New CEO has to seize the opp to keep the $7B annual revenue stream intact. Many thought the new CEO was great for Afrezza as he had experience with this at Pfizer. If he did it was experience based in reality that at best this is a hard change to make that will take time. As for the reps, I was off, my mistake 1200 to 800 - thanks Spiro. Still bad performance as those numbers look like the early docs are just writing more scripts and not many new docs writing scripts. That's just my perception as we're stuck in the 200s which doesn't make sense with all the real-life evidence on social media and support from the online diabetic community. I'm back to waiting this out again. Based on this it seems to me that MNKD until recently was in the dark on some things regarding the launch strategy and what priority SNY has placed on Afrezza. I keep getting the impression that MNKD is surprised by a lot of things going on here and frankly it's SNY's job to sell A and think of those "surprises" ahead of time regarding launch etc, although MNKD really needs to be on top of them now. Perhaps that is why the CC was subpar more than it normally is, could be some infighting going on between SNY/MNKD and MNKD needs to be careful what they say right now. Perhaps MNKD is starting to see SNY's "surprises" as excuses. Or this is all for not and SNY/MNKD have a grand master plan and we're flipping out over nothing here. On a side note though I am disappointed in 12-18 more months for TS. Okay removing my tinfoil hat now.
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Post by hawkfan9 on May 10, 2015 16:31:16 GMT -5
Just wondering what everyone's price range is for Jan '17. Trying to decide on a options strategy and I do not want to be biased by my own numbers. Would help if I heard from someone other than myself!
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Post by afrizzle on May 10, 2015 19:48:24 GMT -5
It would be great if the Sanofi reps pushed A equal to or over T, but unless they are inhibiting sales I don't think it's a fatal problem. The DTC is everything now that the market feedback shows that the product worked better than expected.
Eventually, people will ask their doctor about it and the doctor will either know or in most cases will go find out.
This is a pull play not a push play
In my opinion it's a question of when, not if.
This stock requires intestinal fortitude and much patience.
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Post by xoxoxoxo on May 10, 2015 22:03:12 GMT -5
After friday I've used up all my cash reserves buying more. All in now, so it'd be nice if we'd quit dropping 5% every single day.
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Post by kdaddyfresh2000 on May 10, 2015 23:45:31 GMT -5
Your anecdote seems to confirm my suspicion that spirometry and prior auth are red herrings. SNY prefers T over A right now and MNKD is trying not to address this issue.
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Post by Deleted on May 11, 2015 4:01:07 GMT -5
Many good points on this thread. A lot of MNKD investors seem to be of the mind that because of Afrezza we are all going to be rich in no time. Haha. This is going to be a patient driven drug. While SNY may prefer T over A, the results are clear, Afrezza is a great drug, working as exactly as Al has stated many times. I'm in for the long haul. 5+years. At this point the most important numbers IMO are weekly RXs. We are seeing steady albeit not what some expected growth. The word of mouth of current users is stronger than any advertisement. While ads can pentrate to millions, they can not do what current users do, praise it's superiority to other drugs. Due to these actual users commentary, I believe we have a winner. Long and looking to add more if the bears feel inclined to help lower my cost basis.
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