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Post by compound26 on May 8, 2015 10:11:36 GMT -5
Just added 5.5K shares at around $3.72. The shares got hammered even though nothing has changed for the worse over the last few days. Things are actually improving (even though at a very slow pace) steadily. The earnings are in line with expectation. Mannkind announced that there will be no further dilution and CEO will not sell his shares. They also indicated that they are looking into the bottlenecks in the sales and are working with Sanofi to fix them. These are good news. The new scripts numbers came in this week are fine. IMS saw 20% increase and Symphony indicates flat in NRx but increase in TRx. Meanwhile, Afrezza's publicity is obviously picking up. The TV reports ( www.wdbj7.com/news/local/new-inhaled-insulin-takes-the-place-of-mealtime-injections/32845044#.VUvhbm2EQiI.twitter ), Sam's interview with Tudiabetes, LA Times's interest in interviewing Sam and Brian are evidences of such activity. Patients' feedback continue to be positive. Sam's weekly reports of the earlier adopters are consistently positive. This morning, Terry says in Tudiabetes that "I'm still using it for corrections only and I'm liking it more and more." The early adopters are going to see their doctors in the next few weeks and their A1Cs will be noticed by their doctors. Overall, I think we are progressing, slowly, but steadily.
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Post by compound26 on May 8, 2015 10:17:35 GMT -5
In the end, the success will be based on the product. I have full confidence in the effectiveness and superiority of Afrezza compared with RAAs. The uptick will be slow. The management mentioned a few factors that are negatively affecting the uptick in their call. They did not mention (probably can not mention that in the call due to political incorrectness) is that the competitors are fighting to preventing Afrezza from taking the market.
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Post by compound26 on May 8, 2015 10:25:18 GMT -5
So keep calm. You can add a few more shares if you want to. Otherwise take a deep breath and relax. Think about it, the share price is back to where it was pre-adcom. However, how many milestones Mannkind has achieved since then? Adcom vote, FDA approval, signing partnership with Sanofi, and official launch. All as management has planned and indicated. Overall, I think management is doing a good job. The share price today is mainly a reflect of the fact that Mannkind remains a heavily shorted stock. Who knows who are behind the shorts. But in the end, it will be the patients who will decide which product takes the market share.
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Post by jpg on May 8, 2015 10:29:13 GMT -5
I am now just listening to the call and can yet figure out why ShoutBox was so negative? Management is simply being honest...
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2015 10:34:18 GMT -5
I am now just listening to the call and can yet figure out why ShoutBox was so negative? Management is simply being honest... because half of them are short.
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Post by cubonwallstreet on May 8, 2015 10:35:05 GMT -5
And half of them are probably the same person with different accounts.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on May 8, 2015 10:36:34 GMT -5
I am now just listening to the call and can yet figure out why ShoutBox was so negative? Management is simply being honest... j, seriously, if you couldn't figure out what was going on there I am very surprised. If ever there were the coordinated effort between yesterday's articles and media spots along with the most recent members (along with some that have been seeded for awhile) that "pinged" off each other to be obvious to most on here it was happening there for your perusal.
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Post by jpg on May 8, 2015 10:37:52 GMT -5
I am now just listening to the call and can yet figure out why ShoutBox was so negative? Management is simply being honest... because half of them are short. Agreed. What a weird way to make a living...
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Post by jpg on May 8, 2015 10:41:07 GMT -5
I am now just listening to the call and can yet figure out why ShoutBox was so negative? Management is simply being honest... j, seriously, if you couldn't figure out what was going on there I am very surprised. If ever there were the coordinated effort between yesterday's articles and media spots along with the most recent members (along with some that have been seeded for awhile) that "pinged" off each other to be obvious to most on here it was happening there for your perusal. Also agree but we tend to hand them these opportunities with our collective enthusiasm and unrealistic pre conference expectations. As I said yesterday this all smelled like a set up for this morning.
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Post by jpg on May 8, 2015 10:45:47 GMT -5
I am now just listening to the call and can yet figure out why ShoutBox was so negative? Management is simply being honest... j, seriously, if you couldn't figure out what was going on there I am very surprised. If ever there were the coordinated effort between yesterday's articles and media spots along with the most recent members (along with some that have been seeded for awhile) that "pinged" off each other to be obvious to most on here it was happening there for your perusal. They got us below 4$ which was a major aim win (for them...).
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Post by kepler2stars on May 8, 2015 10:51:19 GMT -5
The way I perceived it is similar to you. There was no real bad News in the call, but no one can deny that the communication skills of this management team are very poor, and getting worse. Al has more than a valid excuse at his age, but Hakan certainly does not. We may see a new CEO sometime soon, and I think that would be a real blessing for the company.
The one thing that struck me as really disappointing, and made management look incompetent, was Al's early comment about Spirometry testing. How on earth can it be that it took management a full year after product approval before realizing they needed a strategy to facilitate this issue, e.g. by having reps offering/selling a cheap spirometry device to endos at the time they dropped off the Afrezza samples? Didn't EVERYONE know ahead of time that endos do not perform lung function tests (even I did)? Bad enough that SNY didn't have a strategy for this, but MNKD had a very long time to think and plan for this.
I think a lot of people may find it difficult to imagine how communication within this partnership is working... for the time being it seems not to work at all. The day traders and whatever other market forces overreacted, and what a chance for people who had cash available to add to their holdings today. imo
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Post by seanismorris on May 8, 2015 10:54:46 GMT -5
I think we listened to different calls...
I see no reason to add here.
I heard from Management 'we did a terrible job getting Afrezza to market'. We completely failed in making Afrezza available to patients in a timely manner and doctors are annoyed with the whole process. On the bright side, we are working with Sanofi to streamline the process but we can't tell you exactly how (because that's Sanofis responsibility). On the other bright side, Afrezza practically sells itself so scripts will keep increasing...
Waiting 12-18 months to hear about anything new about Technopshere opportunities and potential partnerships is a huge negative.
With Technosphere removed from the equation for now, what I need to know is when MannKind becomes profitable and stops the cash burn. That's not going to happen for 6 months. During that time, I wouldn't be surprised if we see MNKD at $3.
Europe submission for Afrezza? It's going to happen, but it does seem to be a priority (at the moment).
I'm not going to sell here, but I'm not excited about buying either. Maybe if the Technicals say buy, I'll consider it...
Also, why the heck are the milestone payments a secret?
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Post by jpg on May 8, 2015 10:54:47 GMT -5
The way I perceived it is similar to you. There was no real bad News in the call, but no one can deny that the communication skills of this management team are very poor, and getting worse. Al has more than a valid excuse at his age, but Hakan certainly does not. We may see a new CEO sometime soon, and I think that would be a real blessing for the company. The one thing that struck me as really disappointing, and made management look incompetent, was Al's early comment about Spirometry testing. How on earth can it be that it took management a full year after product approval before realizing they needed a strategy to facilitate this issue, e.g. by having reps offering/selling a cheap spirometry device to endos at the time they dropped off the Afrezza samples? Didn't EVERYONE know ahead of time that endos do not perform lung function tests (even I did)? Bad enough that SNY didn't have a strategy for this, but MNKD had a very long time to think and plan for this. I think a lot of people may find it difficult to imagine how communication within this partnership is working... for the time being it seems not to work at all. The day traders and whatever other market forces overreacted, and what a chance for people who had cash available to add to their holdings today. imo I don't think this was overreaction. This was simply typical trading by people who set up these situations to extract maximum return from the companies (and shareholders) they target.
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Post by eddiemoy on May 8, 2015 10:54:59 GMT -5
the $7.1M deferred sales is interesting... they confirmed it was at MNKD cost. question is how much does it translate to SNY sales to the retail market? I would think at least 4X or more? does anyone know how much of the $450-500 average per 1 month supply is the cost to produce?
I also like Hakan cancel his planned sales and said no dilution.
I didn't like that the TS pipeline products will not be viable until 12-18 months later
Can't wait to see how sales ramp up in Q3 when DTC ads start...
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Post by kball on May 8, 2015 10:56:19 GMT -5
One thing Matt did mention was an idea GOMNKD suggested a while back in a thread and that was to just GIVE OUT spirometers to Endos that don't have them (i think they mentioned only 30% have them).
Unfortunately he said they cant do that though they would have in the past.
Must be kickback fallout from late last year?
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