Post by nuklerfizzacist on May 11, 2015 19:59:43 GMT -5
Wow, great posts here. Thanks. I've become convinced that there is a bigger macro play actively going on here that many of us seem to forget about while we are engrossed in our "micro" view of Afrezza, Mannkind, Management performance, and the current, painfully low, SP. Here's my hypothesis:
** I've been doing some deep thinking lately, and while doing that thinking over the past few days with the TV on, I've witnessed several insulin commercials (two today within 1 hour of each other...Victoza and one other that I can't recall). I'm becoming convinced that this is not occurring in a vacuum. The insulin-product-making-BPs are reacting to something. Just maybe it is Afrezza?
**Now, lets talk the huge short numbers; I've asked myself who would benefit most by seeding doubt regarding use/success of this product, perhaps killing it; if not at least minimizing it's impact (duh, I know the BPs)? I'm convinced that much of this short interest is a feint (real, but financially insignificant, to it's perpetrators) by those that would be most impacted most if Afrezza succeeds. It's almost like an investment...millions now to save billions later?
**The very difficult history of bringing this product to fruition. It literally only succeeded due to the deep pocketed efforts of Mr. Mann. Otherwise it just wouldn't exist at this moment in time.
** The confidence of the Karps, AF's, etc., of the world (who are likely "indirectly" doing the bidding of the threatened BPs) is based on their association with those threatened entities. They know the inside plays of these entities and are simply carrying through on their part of the act. This is why the shorts have been so amazingly confident and unfortunately successful...but as JoeyPPNs has pointed out it has exacted quite a chunk of flesh for them to get the SP to this point. To me, It's become quite obvious this can be nothing except an organized effort on the part of the BP's who stand to lose billions if the paradigm of diabetes treatment is allowed to come to fruition.
** I don't think the "creative-period" MNKD management team understood how much effort would be undertaken on the part of their competitors to undermine the eventual success of their human-life-improving-crown-jewel product. Scientists/thinkers think in terms of who would do such a thing? Management needs to shift to a business-period modus-operandi if they want to keep their jobs.
** I believe Sanofi understands what it holds in it's hands and will begin to act accordingly in a more demonstrative manner; else serve itself in violation of the agreement between themselves and MNKD. From the recent 10Q, emphasis on the words responsibility, obligated, and reasonable: "Under the terms of the Sanofi License Agreement, Sanofi has the exclusive right and responsibility to develop AFREZZA worldwide, subject to certain development activities that will be performed by the Company. Sanofi will also be obligated to use commercially reasonable efforts to file for, obtain and maintain marketing approvals for AFREZZA in certain major markets and countries. In addition, Sanofi will have exclusive, worldwide rights to commercialize AFREZZA and will be obligated to use commercially reasonable efforts to market, promote and commercialize AFREZZA in all countries in the world where regulatory approval for AFREZZA has been received."
In a nutshell purposefully sandbagging Afrezza would, I think, have been the biggest concern Mannkind would have had entering into this agreement, and I believe it is a non-issue. Sandbagging this product makes, to me, zero sense to Sanofi as well, considering all the efforts made by competitors to kill Afrezza, Sanofi has to know what it has. They are not one of the world's biggest BP's by accident.
Okay done rambling...hope this isn't too unreadable.
hanging in there to the end, whatever that may entail, but I really believe good will triumph over evil in this situation...too many can be positively affected by Afrezza for it to be killed off.
cheers Nuk
** I've been doing some deep thinking lately, and while doing that thinking over the past few days with the TV on, I've witnessed several insulin commercials (two today within 1 hour of each other...Victoza and one other that I can't recall). I'm becoming convinced that this is not occurring in a vacuum. The insulin-product-making-BPs are reacting to something. Just maybe it is Afrezza?
**Now, lets talk the huge short numbers; I've asked myself who would benefit most by seeding doubt regarding use/success of this product, perhaps killing it; if not at least minimizing it's impact (duh, I know the BPs)? I'm convinced that much of this short interest is a feint (real, but financially insignificant, to it's perpetrators) by those that would be most impacted most if Afrezza succeeds. It's almost like an investment...millions now to save billions later?
**The very difficult history of bringing this product to fruition. It literally only succeeded due to the deep pocketed efforts of Mr. Mann. Otherwise it just wouldn't exist at this moment in time.
** The confidence of the Karps, AF's, etc., of the world (who are likely "indirectly" doing the bidding of the threatened BPs) is based on their association with those threatened entities. They know the inside plays of these entities and are simply carrying through on their part of the act. This is why the shorts have been so amazingly confident and unfortunately successful...but as JoeyPPNs has pointed out it has exacted quite a chunk of flesh for them to get the SP to this point. To me, It's become quite obvious this can be nothing except an organized effort on the part of the BP's who stand to lose billions if the paradigm of diabetes treatment is allowed to come to fruition.
** I don't think the "creative-period" MNKD management team understood how much effort would be undertaken on the part of their competitors to undermine the eventual success of their human-life-improving-crown-jewel product. Scientists/thinkers think in terms of who would do such a thing? Management needs to shift to a business-period modus-operandi if they want to keep their jobs.
** I believe Sanofi understands what it holds in it's hands and will begin to act accordingly in a more demonstrative manner; else serve itself in violation of the agreement between themselves and MNKD. From the recent 10Q, emphasis on the words responsibility, obligated, and reasonable: "Under the terms of the Sanofi License Agreement, Sanofi has the exclusive right and responsibility to develop AFREZZA worldwide, subject to certain development activities that will be performed by the Company. Sanofi will also be obligated to use commercially reasonable efforts to file for, obtain and maintain marketing approvals for AFREZZA in certain major markets and countries. In addition, Sanofi will have exclusive, worldwide rights to commercialize AFREZZA and will be obligated to use commercially reasonable efforts to market, promote and commercialize AFREZZA in all countries in the world where regulatory approval for AFREZZA has been received."
In a nutshell purposefully sandbagging Afrezza would, I think, have been the biggest concern Mannkind would have had entering into this agreement, and I believe it is a non-issue. Sandbagging this product makes, to me, zero sense to Sanofi as well, considering all the efforts made by competitors to kill Afrezza, Sanofi has to know what it has. They are not one of the world's biggest BP's by accident.
Okay done rambling...hope this isn't too unreadable.
hanging in there to the end, whatever that may entail, but I really believe good will triumph over evil in this situation...too many can be positively affected by Afrezza for it to be killed off.
cheers Nuk