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Post by esstan2001 on May 12, 2015 13:50:17 GMT -5
While they started off okay in terms of scripts...but the trend is pretty much flat when taken into bigger consideration (the bigger picture). Why? How can that be? ..., it's still data that makes no sense even if t they are off by half. So, where I'm going with this is that the script data, if you look at it this way, might actually support what SNY and MNKD are saying - they truly are doing a controlled launch,... - - - However, (yeah, of course I have a "however"), I'll just say I (probably like everyone else at this point) will be looking closely to make sure we haven't made up our own narrative to fit poor sales. If SNY comes out guns-a-blazen by august with DTC, a motivated and ready to sell sales force, and a full court press marketing campaign, and solutions to the bottlenecks (spiro issue and insurance), then I'll be a believer in what we've been told. Right now I consider myself a hopeful optimist while I wait for the proof to become evident. Of course, as an investor, waiting till it becomes obvious typically results in missing the trade (at least the type of trade I live for). "I'm not sure why Matt couldn't have made at least some of these defensive and explanatory statements without legal concerns such as stating during the CC that while sales are slow, we anticipated that, it's the plan, it's all going to plan, or something clear and concise that basically says they know what they are doing and they have it under control." Since their last shareholder class action, they are probably gun shy about saying anything that shareholders can later use against them if it should fail to materialize... As for the rest of your post, you laid out all the concerns and all the potential answers. That's a lot of Angst you (and the rest :-) of us) are carrying around!
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Post by Deleted on May 12, 2015 14:29:30 GMT -5
While they started off okay in terms of scripts...but the trend is pretty much flat when taken into bigger consideration (the bigger picture). Why? How can that be? ..., it's still data that makes no sense even if t they are off by half. So, where I'm going with this is that the script data, if you look at it this way, might actually support what SNY and MNKD are saying - they truly are doing a controlled launch,... - - - However, (yeah, of course I have a "however"), I'll just say I (probably like everyone else at this point) will be looking closely to make sure we haven't made up our own narrative to fit poor sales. If SNY comes out guns-a-blazen by august with DTC, a motivated and ready to sell sales force, and a full court press marketing campaign, and solutions to the bottlenecks (spiro issue and insurance), then I'll be a believer in what we've been told. Right now I consider myself a hopeful optimist while I wait for the proof to become evident. Of course, as an investor, waiting till it becomes obvious typically results in missing the trade (at least the type of trade I live for). "I'm not sure why Matt couldn't have made at least some of these defensive and explanatory statements without legal concerns such as stating during the CC that while sales are slow, we anticipated that, it's the plan, it's all going to plan, or something clear and concise that basically says they know what they are doing and they have it under control." Since their last shareholder class action, they are probably gun shy about saying anything that shareholders can later use against them if it should fail to materialize... As for the rest of your post, you laid out all the concerns and all the potential answers. That's a lot of Angst you (and the rest :-) of us) are carrying around! Thank you for your post. The class action will do it for sure. The last part of your comment is interesting to me. You mention that it's a lot of angst to carry around. I understand your point and I understand that's how much if not most of my material is viewed - I mean, who wants to look at dirty laundry, or a sick person, or anything that makes us emotionally exposed (like information that doesn't agree with our views). We all know and understand that we're driven hard by our ego's and we want to see the world the way our ego sees it. Anyone who argues with that point - consider that I probably just pricked your ego and your ego is wanting to "correct" me.....lol....but hey, this isn't psych 101 (or, is it?). Investing is psychology but for me, it's my psychology that I challenge and I do it every day. I challenge my ego to accept other possibilities, even the ones I absolutely despise and I do that because it makes me a better investor. So, I don't carry around a lot of angst and the reason why that is true is because the more I uncover (negative and positive), the better I understand what and why I'm doing what I do. That's very calming to me. While I chew over risks till the cows come home, it doesn't cause me anxiety, it helps to relax my ego, my mind, and allows me to stay calm, say, when the price drops thru the floor. I can stay calm when GS comes out with BS because I've already chewed over the info enough that I can recognize BS when I see/smell it. So yes, I do torture myself up front, but, in the long game - it's a life (and money) saver!!
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Post by mnholdem on May 12, 2015 14:33:19 GMT -5
Hakan and Matt should have anticipated what the analysts' questions would be and have prepared statements to address them in a manner that is both reassuring and professional. Clearly, presentation has always been a weak point in these officers' skill sets.
I believe it would be in MannKind Corporation's best interest to hire a seasoned Investor Relations professional who will not only understand how to communicate orally without fear of legal ramifications (i.e. shareholder lawsuits) but who can and will update their pathetic website & coordinate all information, including presentations whether they be investor conferences or earnings calls. In addition, this person should have scripts prepared for Hakan and Matt - forget Al, he wouldn't accept one - even if at times it's a boilerplate answer, but an answer that conveys reassurance that MannKind and Sanofi are executing a plan.
In fact, I see no reason why a representative from Sanofi was not on hand to answer sales & marketing related questions. They really need to hire a pro.
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Post by Deleted on May 12, 2015 14:40:42 GMT -5
Hakan and Matt should have anticipated what the analysts' questions would be and have prepared statements to address them in a manner that is both reassuring and professional. Clearly, presentation has always been a weak point in these officers' skill sets. I believe it would be in MannKind Corporation's best interest to hire a seasoned Investor Relations professional who will not only understand how to communication orally without fear of legal ramifications (i.e. shareholder lawsuits) but who can and will update their pathetic website coordinate all information, including presentations whether they be investor conferences or earnings calls. In addition, this person should have scripts prepared for Hakan and Matt - forget Al, he wouldn't accept one - even if at times it's a boilerplate answer, but an answer that conveys reassurance that MannKind and Sanofi are executing a plan. In fact, I see no reason why a representative from Sanofi was not on hand to answer sales & marketing related questions. They really need to hire a pro. If I could make the annual meeting, this is exactly what I would focus on. This is what's needed at this stage. That and a different CEO.
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Post by esstan2001 on May 12, 2015 15:13:42 GMT -5
More power to you- it is great that we get to benefit from you writing all your thoughts and points on this board.
This investment is my diamond in the rough. Gotta cut through a lot to obtain the ultimate value within. It is the cutting & grinding process we are going through right now. Can't wait for the polishing. The best part. That will be 2017.
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Post by Deleted on May 12, 2015 15:16:48 GMT -5
Personally speaking my disappointment, as I mentioned before, was not with what they did not say, but perhaps with what was actually said, although most especially on how it was said. You should read over the latest stock report by Griffin Securities, (https://griffin.bluematrix.com/sellside/EmailDocViewer?encrypt=fb48bb3f-3e8b-41bb-81ce-914b82364e0d&mime=pdf&co=griffin&id=tony@amarinelli.com&source=mail) and even if you disregard their price target and other specifics, the whole report is set in a professional tone that generally inspires confidence. That is the kind of presentation that I would like to see from MNKD management. The Griffin Securities report is extremely interesting particularly for what mnholdem points out - "'I've learned that corporations sometime hire investment analyst firms to, in a sense, forecast things that the company itself cannot say publicly....." I'm not sure why Matt couldn't have made at least some of these defensive and explanatory statements without legal concerns such as stating during the CC that while sales are slow, we anticipated that, it's the plan, it's all going to plan, or something clear and concise that basically says they know what they are doing and they have it under control. Maybe I need to listen to the CC again - maybe they did that just not in the way I was looking for it at that moment in time. Either way, the actual evidence (besides words out of people's mouths) that I find significant that I can not explain away is the current script numbers (even if what's reported is only half of what is actually being written). While they started off okay in terms of scripts, they seemed to have plateaued and before anyone gets upset with me on that position, yes, sales week over week are growing ( 3/27/2015 200 4/3/2015 226 4/10/2015 226 4/17/2015 257 4/24/2015 278 5/1/2015 294 ) but the trend is pretty much flat when taken into bigger consideration (the bigger picture). Why? How can that be? How can we be selling less scripts per week for the last 4 weeks than what exubera did? Those are the questions rolling around my head and I don't accept the easy answers such as "oh, the numbers are wrong" or "it's to soon". While that may be true, it's still data that makes no sense even if they are off by half. So, where I'm going with this is that the script data, if you look at it this way, might actually support what SNY and MNKD are saying - they truly are doing a controlled launch, keeping a lid on scripts, more interested in building understanding, consensus, get social media warmed up, get some success stories brewing, start working/testing basic marketing materials......all of that makes sense when I look at the script numbers as they are right now. Of course scripts would be low since the goal right now is not bulk script writing. If they are laying the ground work, then this is how one would go about it and the script numbers we're seeing fit into that narrative. While you might say "yeah, but we already knew all that"....I simply respond by saying I don't care. That is, people are always making excuses for poor execution and I don't care about excuses. Excuses don't pay the bills. Excuses don't make the stock price appreciate. But in this case, I have to step back from the cynical side of my investment approach and accept that what SNY has said.....might actually be true. However, (yeah, of course I have a "however"), I'll just say I (probably like everyone else at this point) will be looking closely to make sure we haven't made up our own narrative to fit poor sales. If SNY comes out guns-a-blazen by august with DTC, a motivated and ready to sell sales force, and a full court press marketing campaign, and solutions to the bottlenecks (spiro issue and insurance), then I'll be a believer in what we've been told. Right now I consider myself a hopeful optimist while I wait for the proof to become evident. Of course, as an investor, waiting till it becomes obvious typically results in missing the trade (at least the type of trade I live for). Huh? They have plateaud but are still growing? Look at the monthly, thats not a plateau.
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Post by esstan2001 on May 12, 2015 15:20:29 GMT -5
Hakan and Matt should have anticipated what the analysts' questions would be and have prepared statements to address them in a manner that is both reassuring and professional. Clearly, presentation has always been a weak point in these officers' skill sets. I believe it would be in MannKind Corporation's best interest to hire a seasoned Investor Relations professional who will not only understand how to communicate orally without fear of legal ramifications (i.e. shareholder lawsuits) but who can and will update their pathetic website & coordinate all information, including presentations whether they be investor conferences or earnings calls. In addition, this person should have scripts prepared for Hakan and Matt - forget Al, he wouldn't accept one - even if at times it's a boilerplate answer, but an answer that conveys reassurance that MannKind and Sanofi are executing a plan. In fact, I see no reason why a representative from Sanofi was not on hand to answer sales & marketing related questions. They really need to hire a pro. I emailed Matt to this effect after that conf. call (except for the part about a representative from Sanofi). All these issues were easily anticipated and hell, an 'obviously scripted' response would even have been better sans the two words 'hope' and 'surprised'; 2 words to be excised from any Chief Officer's vocabulary.
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Post by kball on May 12, 2015 15:21:20 GMT -5
Perhaps they clarify that later in the report. I took the 12-month target from the summary on page 1 Stock Symbol NASDAQ: MNKD Current Price $3.81 12 mos. Target Price $16.25 Market Cap $1,558.6 mln Shares O/S 409.1 mln Avg Daily Vol. (3 mos.) 5,210,490 shs. 52- Week Price Low/High $4.00 - $11.48 Fiscal Year End Dec Dividend / Yield $0.00 / 0.0% I was looking towards the end of report here... (probably a hedge to cover their butts) Disclosures ANALYST(s) CERTIFICATION: The analyst responsible for covering the securities in this report certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect their personal views about the subject Companies mentioned and its securities. The analyst responsible for covering the securities in this report certify that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or view contained in this research report.
MEANINGS OF RATINGS: Our rating system is based upon 12 to 36 month price targets. BUY describes stocks that we expect to appreciate by more than 20%. HOLD/NEUTRAL describes stocks that we expect to change plus or minus 20%. SELL describes stocks that we expect to decline by more than 20%
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Post by Deleted on May 12, 2015 17:10:42 GMT -5
The Griffin Securities report is extremely interesting particularly for what mnholdem points out - "'I've learned that corporations sometime hire investment analyst firms to, in a sense, forecast things that the company itself cannot say publicly....." I'm not sure why Matt couldn't have made at least some of these defensive and explanatory statements without legal concerns such as stating during the CC that while sales are slow, we anticipated that, it's the plan, it's all going to plan, or something clear and concise that basically says they know what they are doing and they have it under control. Maybe I need to listen to the CC again - maybe they did that just not in the way I was looking for it at that moment in time. Either way, the actual evidence (besides words out of people's mouths) that I find significant that I can not explain away is the current script numbers (even if what's reported is only half of what is actually being written). While they started off okay in terms of scripts, they seemed to have plateaued and before anyone gets upset with me on that position, yes, sales week over week are growing ( 3/27/2015 200 4/3/2015 226 4/10/2015 226 4/17/2015 257 4/24/2015 278 5/1/2015 294 ) but the trend is pretty much flat when taken into bigger consideration (the bigger picture). Why? How can that be? How can we be selling less scripts per week for the last 4 weeks than what exubera did? Those are the questions rolling around my head and I don't accept the easy answers such as "oh, the numbers are wrong" or "it's to soon". While that may be true, it's still data that makes no sense even if they are off by half. So, where I'm going with this is that the script data, if you look at it this way, might actually support what SNY and MNKD are saying - they truly are doing a controlled launch, keeping a lid on scripts, more interested in building understanding, consensus, get social media warmed up, get some success stories brewing, start working/testing basic marketing materials......all of that makes sense when I look at the script numbers as they are right now. Of course scripts would be low since the goal right now is not bulk script writing. If they are laying the ground work, then this is how one would go about it and the script numbers we're seeing fit into that narrative. While you might say "yeah, but we already knew all that"....I simply respond by saying I don't care. That is, people are always making excuses for poor execution and I don't care about excuses. Excuses don't pay the bills. Excuses don't make the stock price appreciate. But in this case, I have to step back from the cynical side of my investment approach and accept that what SNY has said.....might actually be true. However, (yeah, of course I have a "however"), I'll just say I (probably like everyone else at this point) will be looking closely to make sure we haven't made up our own narrative to fit poor sales. If SNY comes out guns-a-blazen by august with DTC, a motivated and ready to sell sales force, and a full court press marketing campaign, and solutions to the bottlenecks (spiro issue and insurance), then I'll be a believer in what we've been told. Right now I consider myself a hopeful optimist while I wait for the proof to become evident. Of course, as an investor, waiting till it becomes obvious typically results in missing the trade (at least the type of trade I live for). Huh? They have plateaud but are still growing? Look at the monthly, thats not a plateau. "but the trend is pretty much flat when taken into bigger consideration (the bigger picture)." So yes, still growing but slowly enough that it's not all that relevant yet. I'm looking/talking about growth like 500 scripts to 800 scripts to 1500 scripts to 2000 scripts to 2500 scripts week over week type growth. At some point if we're to see blockbuster status, we'll need to see thousands upon thousands of scripts per week. So, 226 to 257 to 278 to 294........not exactly going to get us there in our lifetimes at that pace. Month over month - sure. My view on current scripts are the same until they begin to tell a different story. But we're barely through the first chapter of a pretty long novel.
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Post by Deleted on May 12, 2015 18:32:27 GMT -5
Huh? They have plateaud but are still growing? Look at the monthly, thats not a plateau. "but the trend is pretty much flat when taken into bigger consideration (the bigger picture)." So yes, still growing but slowly enough that it's not all that relevant yet. I'm looking/talking about growth like 500 scripts to 800 scripts to 1500 scripts to 2000 scripts to 2500 scripts week over week type growth. At some point if we're to see blockbuster status, we'll need to see thousands upon thousands of scripts per week. So, 226 to 257 to 278 to 294........not exactly going to get us there in our lifetimes at that pace. Month over month - sure. My view on current scripts are the same until they begin to tell a different story. But we're barely through the first chapter of a pretty long novel. I doubt you'll see that type of jump. I don't have anything to base that on, other than experience, but theres nothing that will drastically happen that will alter the course of "slow launch" outside of DTC.
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Post by james on May 12, 2015 20:46:13 GMT -5
"but the trend is pretty much flat when taken into bigger consideration (the bigger picture)." So yes, still growing but slowly enough that it's not all that relevant yet. I'm looking/talking about growth like 500 scripts to 800 scripts to 1500 scripts to 2000 scripts to 2500 scripts week over week type growth. At some point if we're to see blockbuster status, we'll need to see thousands upon thousands of scripts per week. So, 226 to 257 to 278 to 294........not exactly going to get us there in our lifetimes at that pace. Month over month - sure. My view on current scripts are the same until they begin to tell a different story. But we're barely through the first chapter of a pretty long novel. And yet the exact series you list (226 - 294) is just a hair short of 10% week over week growth, which looks like practically nothing over several months if you continue the series. However, if it could be sustained (which is still unlikely), it would lead to break even by end of next winter and blockbuster status ($1B annual sales) by mid spring. I sure hope our lifetimes are longer than that! Folks can do math, and if there is any sense to the world, the stock price would be running away while sales were still below 1,500 a week ($37M / yr per Symphony) 4 months from now as there would be an obvious path to success. I do think it's likely that we'll see several weeks of a surge in the next 2-3 months, but we are not going to see anything like the growth rates you suggest and for good reason. There is far too much criticism of the current pace and efforts.
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Post by james on May 12, 2015 21:13:14 GMT -5
Another quick data point on this. If you look back to week 1 when there were 14 scripts written, it requires 26% week over week growth to get to 294 (13 periods). If you eliminate the first 2 weeks, from week 3 (107 scripts) it still requires >8% week over week growth to get to 294. So, the rate has picked up in the past four weeks, but not by all that much. The starting point is low, but the path is good and holding up.
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Post by mnholdem on May 12, 2015 21:29:53 GMT -5
If any drug were capable of a sustainable trend, I think it would be Afrezza. Whether it's between doctors or between friends/relatives, nothing I know of spurs growth better or faster than word-of-mouth.
...and the word about how well Afrezza works is getting around. Eliminate those nuisance delays and sale$ may exceed your expectations - or at least meet what your expectations used to be a few months ago at launch.
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