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Post by tigiron on May 13, 2015 17:36:29 GMT -5
Anybody have any idea the rough/average turnaround time from sample packs to actual prescription? If all these samples have been distributed, that is about 20~30K potential script equivalent.
From here, if we have a rough idea of how quick patients move from samples to actual prescriptions, this is actually a pretty good signal to gauge how well afrezza are being received, and a more reliable projector than the social media discussions.
Other minor questions:
Presumably samples are for Q1 or up till today? It is almost a factor of 0.75 in difference(2:3.5).
The retail value of these packs are about $3-4M, about 3~4 times the scripts sold. Who is shouldering the cost? Is it somehow reflected in MNKD's Q1 report?
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Post by kc on May 13, 2015 17:43:35 GMT -5
Funny thing is they probably knew that number last Friday and just chose to use it today. Very smart on management's part.
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Post by Deleted on May 13, 2015 18:13:25 GMT -5
Anybody have any idea the rough/average turnaround time from sample packs to actual prescription? If all these samples have been distributed, that is about 20~30K potential script equivalent. From here, if we have a rough idea of how quick patients move from samples to actual prescriptions, this is actually a pretty good signal to gauge how well afrezza are being received, and a more reliable projector than the social media discussions. Other minor questions: Presumably samples are for Q1 or up till today? It is almost a factor of 0.75 in difference(2:3.5). The retail value of these packs are about $3-4M, about 3~4 times the scripts sold. Who is shouldering the cost? Is it somehow reflected in MNKD's Q1 report? See my post on the visual flow. It'll give guidance to your questions. |
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Post by ezrasfund on May 13, 2015 19:36:20 GMT -5
While Hakan said during the earnings call that a 10 day trial with samples was required prior to starting on Afrezza, some diabetics seem to be reporting that they are getting a prescription without first using a sample pack.
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Post by compound26 on May 14, 2015 12:47:39 GMT -5
Follow members, just for your entertainment,  a very rough back-of-the-envelope guess of the samples to prescriptions conversion. 54,00 boxes / 1.600,000 carts of samples in total. Scenario 1: Assuming each patient uses 10 carts per day and each got two times the 10-day supply of samples, 1.600,000 will go to 8,000 patients. Assuming the doctors have given out half of the samples, then will reach 4,000 patients. Assuming 50% of the patients who got samples will ask for a prescription, that’s 2,000 patients. Assuming we have already seen 1,000 of such patients, there are 1,000 patients to arrive. Assuming these patients will get prescriptions within the next 12 weeks, that’s 80 each week. Adding 80 to the 250/300 TRx we have currently, it is likely we will see TRx at 335-450/week in the coming weeks. Scenario 2: Assuming each patient uses 10 carts per day and each got one 10 day supply of samples, 1.600,000 will go to 16,000 patients. Assuming the doctors have given out half of the samples, then will reach 8,000 patients. Assuming 50% of the patients who got samples will ask for a prescription, that’s 4,000 patients. Assuming we have already seen 1,000 of such patients, there are 3,000 patients to arrive. Assuming these patients will get prescriptions within the next 12 weeks, that’s 250 each week. Adding 250 to the 250/300 TRx we have currently, it is likely we will see TRx at 500-600/week in the coming weeks. Average of the two estimates above, it is likely we will see TRx at 425-525/week in the coming weeks . |
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Post by bradleysbest on May 14, 2015 12:52:14 GMT -5
I would think (hope) we see closer to 1K in scripts real soon.
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Post by Deleted on May 14, 2015 12:59:41 GMT -5
Assuming each patient uses 10 carts per day and each got two times the 10-day supply of samples, 1.600,000 will go to 8,000 patients. Scenario 2: Assuming each patient uses 10 carts per day and each got one 10 day supply of samples, 1.600,000 will go to 16,000 patients. Number of cartridges used can vary from minimum 3 per day to 6 requiring follow up does to 12 for high usage users....so averaging 7 per day? |
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Post by compound26 on May 14, 2015 13:01:52 GMT -5
I would think (hope) we see closer to 1K in scripts real soon. I would thinks so. My above post was just for entertainment and for poking your mind. My above post also does not include any natural growth we should and would have based on more public awareness of the drug, doctors getting more willing to prescribe the drug after seeing positive feedback, insurance giving better coverage, etc. So I believe the actual prescriptions will be more than what I stated above if we fast forward a few weeks ahead. However, in the meantime, if other factors do not kick in as fast as we would expect, I think the above estimate would be the floor of the prescriptions solely based on the samples effect. |
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Post by tigiron on May 14, 2015 13:10:03 GMT -5
This would be 6-7 sample packs per patient, which is very unlikely unless patient has multiple visits?
2 or 3 packs/patient/visit sounds more reasonable to me.
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Post by compound26 on May 14, 2015 13:21:02 GMT -5
This would be 6-7 sample packs per patient, which is very unlikely unless patient has multiple visits? 2 or 3 packs/patient/visit sounds more reasonable to me. Agree. The assumptions are just there for easier calculations. Some assumptions may turn out to be too conservative while others may turn out to be on the aggressive side. More likely their effects cancel out each other. |
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Post by Deleted on May 14, 2015 14:18:43 GMT -5
When I swag this, i use 25% still in SNY inventory, 50% in doctor inventory, and 25% dispersed to end users.
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Post by compound26 on May 14, 2015 14:38:59 GMT -5
When I swag this, i use 25% still in SNY inventory, 50% in doctor inventory, and 25% dispersed to end users. That will be a reasonable assumption. Using such assumption, and assuming each patient get just one 10-day supply of samples, then I will arrive at my scenario 1 estimate. |
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Post by mnholdem on May 14, 2015 15:50:18 GMT -5
Novalog TRx scripts = 60,000+/week
Humalog TRx scripts = 50,000+/week
Apidra TRx scripts = 5,000/week
Total Rapid-Acting Analogs for prandial = 125,000/week
I'm beginning to think joey is right about doing a Rip Van Winkle. In other words, wake me up when we hit 5k per week.
Frankly, I would not be surprised if sales hit that level by summer.
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Post by bradleysbest on May 14, 2015 17:04:04 GMT -5
If I could just take some time away from the stock price & these damn message boards until Jan 1 2016......
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Post by tigiron on May 14, 2015 17:38:16 GMT -5
Novalog TRx scripts = 60,000+/week Humalog TRx scripts = 50,000+/week Apidra TRx scripts = 5,000/week Total Rapid-Acting Analogs for prandial = 125,000/week I'm beginning to think joey is right about doing a Rip Van Winkle. In other words, wake me up when we hit 5k per week. Frankly, I would not be surprised if sales hit that level by summer. These numbers should be weekly NRx, not TRx. Total Rapid-Acting Analogs for prandial = 320,000/week. |
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a very rough back-of-the-envelope guess 
