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Post by liane on Oct 31, 2013 11:50:31 GMT -5
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Post by babaoriley on Oct 31, 2013 12:55:46 GMT -5
Liane, I went to the conclusion for now, as I'm at work and don't have the time to read the whole article yet, but, there I saw: "For a developmental-stage biotechnology company like MNKD, catalytic events such as a buy out, partnership or FDA approval could trigger the short squeeze phenomenon easily doubling the stock in the short term." Well, a buy out would pretty much end things, and likely very well short of that $50 value she places on the stock!!
Give me a buy out for $12/share and I'll be darn happy!
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Post by nemzter on Oct 31, 2013 13:08:19 GMT -5
I would be happy with $12 as well  |
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Post by slushy on Oct 31, 2013 13:22:53 GMT -5
The article seems pretty solid, but I think the possible price of $50 isn't realistic unless your talking years beyond FDA approval. I think $12-$20 is a much more realistic price for near term... $12 being FDA approval and $20 being a strong partner/buyout (plus a bit of luck).
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Post by liane on Oct 31, 2013 14:51:34 GMT -5
I agree, $50 might take a couple years in a partnership scenario... But here's one benchmark I am working from. In 2011, Gilead bought Pharmasset for $11 B - this was for a Hep C drug still in development, PSI-7977 - now renamed GS-7977. This is not expected to launch until 2015, and still has to be approved. The entire Hep C treatment market in 2011 was $2.6 B. Compare that to sales of RAAs from the 3 largest companies in 2011 of $6.6 B. This does not even count for Afrezza eventually being prescribed earlier in diabetes treatment and replacing oral meds. In my mind, buyout value for MNKD (not even counting the licensing value of Technosphere) - $10 - 20 B would not be outrageous considering the size of the diabetes market and its growth. Using roughly 400 M shares outstanding, that would give $25 - $50 per share.
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Post by babaoriley on Oct 31, 2013 15:46:54 GMT -5
Not to say I'm not hoping for $25 to $50, but today, I just love the way my warrants got smashed to bits!! I don't go so much on the warrant price, it's the stock price that matters, the warrant can always be exercised to achieve full value, but it sure knocks the heck out of any trading value the warrants might otherwise have!
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Post by spiro on Oct 31, 2013 15:47:32 GMT -5
Liane,
Your projections look good to me. The potential value of Afrezza in replacing oral meds and/or early intervention could be huge. Also, after reading that Metformin could be linked to Alzheimer's disease, I am surprised that doctors still prescribe it. Afrezza has a great future and by reducing severe hypoglycemic events, it will save lives. The manipulation taking place with MNKD's share price, hopefully will end soon.
Spiro
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Post by mdcenter61 on Oct 31, 2013 15:54:29 GMT -5
Not to say I'm not hoping for $25 to $50, but today, I just love the way my warrants got smashed to bits!! I don't go so much on the warrant price, it's the stock price that matters, the warrant can always be exercised to achieve full value, but it sure knocks the heck out of any trading value the warrants might otherwise have! Yeah, it was a real bummer looking at what my warrants did today, but like you, still looking at down the road conversion anyway. I'll still settle for at buyout from Merck at 1 for 1 stock swap - LOL! |
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Post by liane on Oct 31, 2013 15:59:59 GMT -5
I know the share price predictions look outrageously high - mostly because the current price has been so beaten up. But if you look at potential market cap - $10 - $20 B is not unreasonable for what we have here and now. And if it's not a BO, but rather a partnership (as Al has said all along), the value 5 years down the road will be even higher.
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Post by babaoriley on Oct 31, 2013 17:04:04 GMT -5
Not just MNKD by any means, but so many development biotechs, the lament and hope is, "x months/years from now, we will laugh at this price." I haven't found many that I can laugh at yet, but a more than a few have been laughing at me!
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Post by MnkdMainer (MM) on Oct 31, 2013 21:23:40 GMT -5
Not just MNKD by any means, but so many development biotechs, the lament and hope is, "x months/years from now, we will laugh at this price." I haven't found many that I can laugh at yet, but a more than a few have been laughing at me! I am not a biotech investor. But I am invested in Mannkind. I think it's a rare investment opportunity, not simply another biotech investment opportunity. In many ways, it is a "perfect storm" stock. I am not dismayed by the beaten down share price. In my view, patience will be well rewarded. If I did not have this view, I would not be looking to invest in another biotech. I would probably invest in an index fund or some other diversified mix of stocks. |
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