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Post by savzak on May 20, 2015 8:28:59 GMT -5
It's interesting to me how difficult it is for reason to win the day over our more innate psychological tendencies. I remember well when we first broke below $5 several days ago. Uh-oh. I wonder what this foretells. I hope we hold the line here. Then the tanking through the $4's and into the $3's. The psychological pain was palpable. The wails and cries and gnashing of teeth ensued. (You all couldn't hear me because I stayed off the board. You're welcome for that by the way).
Now, here we are, at $4.90 or so pre-market. Everything feels so much better! When we were in the $3's (and I don't discount the possibility that we may be there again before all is said and done), my reason told me that it would be temporary, that the market was manipulated, that it was all based on FUD, that weak longs were the prey, that I needed to hunker down and not be the prey, etc... Importantly, I ACTED according to reason. But my stomach didn't!
I'm not happy about $4.90's, more relieved really, but there's that psychology at work again. Several days ago when we breached $5..."Uh-oh". Today as we approach $5..."Ah, that feels better".
What's changed fundamentally? Nothing.
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Post by cubonwallstreet on May 20, 2015 8:55:40 GMT -5
(and I don't discount the possibility that we may be there again before all is said and done)
This. The climb up has been fun, sure, but if you thought this was the (big) trend reversal, you have not been following the stock long enough (or well enough). I hope I am wrong, yeah. But I have not heard anything substantial enough to think the shorts have lost control.
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Post by savzak on May 20, 2015 9:10:42 GMT -5
(and I don't discount the possibility that we may be there again before all is said and done)
This. The climb up has been fun, sure, but if you thought this was the (big) trend reversal, you have not been following the stock long enough (or well enough). I hope I am wrong, yeah. But I have not heard anything substantial enough to think the shorts have lost control. Actually, I wouldn't call it fun. At best, it's provided some relief. Nothing about being under $5 is fun.
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Post by cubonwallstreet on May 20, 2015 9:23:36 GMT -5
I only mean that in the sense of the stock showing some signs of life. For many longs, it might be a relief and a gentle backhanded slap to the face.
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Post by _neil on May 20, 2015 11:25:20 GMT -5
I agree nothing 'fundamentally' has changed but since there are no sales to speak of, we are at the mercy of daily news to extrapolate the success or failure of the company. A confidence sapping Earnings call followed by the relief of Jeffries report is all we had for this 5$ roller coaster. Neither should have caused these wild ~20% swings in price but until there is solid,provable sales and commitment on the ground by SNY, we won't have a support price. It's disheartening but the shorts will be in control until that point. Afrezza's is now totally in SNY's court. In theory MNKD has no role but to execute on production targets. I hope we get the answers to why the potential candidates for TS went from apparently too many to nothing for another couple years over the span of a quarter. I see that as another support slab for this stock. If not, the shorts will be right to call this a one trick pony (and a weak trick at that). I'm chump change investor compared to the frequent posters on this board but having this as my largest holding hasn't been kind to my stomach
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Post by bradleysbest on May 20, 2015 11:50:52 GMT -5
My guess is the CRL & funding had a lot to do with a lack of TS development. Hopefully the "embarrassment of riches" will help from here on out.
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Post by thekindaguyiyam on May 20, 2015 12:00:16 GMT -5
I've been putting the conscious stress on the back burner and relying on what I know. I'm one of those guys who wants to validate my belief system when it's being challenged. How do I do this? I buy more mannkind stock. Having no money (cash) makes this difficult... but, as it happened I was able to place my insurance bills and a couple others on the American Express. My last purchase was at the bottom.... I actually got more @ 3.46 In the future; it won't matter if it's 3.46 or 15.6 because the share price will go past that by far.. and this remains my belief system. This is not a short term investment to me; though, I too would enjoy more honesty and balance from the media; I know that isn't their job. Their job is to make money and they make it both ways; buying and selling. My confidence remains in tact. Anyone want to lend me some money. I'll gladly pay you tuesday for a hamburger today!
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Post by babaoriley on May 20, 2015 12:09:30 GMT -5
I've been putting the conscious stress on the back burner and relying on what I know. I'm one of those guys who wants to validate my belief system when it's being challenged. How do I do this? I buy more mannkind stock. Having no money (cash) makes this difficult... but, as it happened I was able to place my insurance bills and a couple others on the American Express. My last purchase was at the bottom.... I actually got more @ 3.46 In the future; it won't matter if it's 3.46 or 15.6 because the share price will go past that by far.. and this remains my belief system. This is not a short term investment to me; though, I too would enjoy more honesty and balance from the media; I know that isn't their job. Their job is to make money and they make it both ways; buying and selling. My confidence remains in tact. Anyone want to lend me some money. I'll gladly pay you tuesday for a hamburger today! Applaud your confidence, but not your tactics, be careful when it comes to stuff like this, borrowing is a tough way to play stocks, not to mention biotech! Good luck!
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Post by tchalaa on May 20, 2015 12:31:19 GMT -5
I agree nothing 'fundamentally' has changed but since there are no sales to speak of, we are at the mercy of daily news to extrapolate the success or failure of the company. A confidence sapping Earnings call followed by the relief of Jeffries report is all we had for this 5$ roller coaster. Neither should have caused these wild ~20% swings in price but until there is solid,provable sales and commitment on the ground by SNY, we won't have a support price. It's disheartening but the shorts will be in control until that point. Afrezza's is now totally in SNY's court. In theory MNKD has no role but to execute on production targets. I hope we get the answers to why the potential candidates for TS went from apparently too many to nothing for another couple years over the span of a quarter. I see that as another support slab for this stock. If not, the shorts will be right to call this a one trick pony (and a weak trick at that). I'm chump change investor compared to the frequent posters on this board but having this as my largest holding hasn't been kind to my stomach What you are publishing is false news!!MannKind is working on delivering four different types of drugs via Technosphere, with one already in pre-clinical trials: pain management. That’s basically the Holy Grail for the pharma industry, as existing pain alleviation products have severe side effects and some are quite addictive. Delivering a safer product in a non-invasive way is a huge opportunity for MannKind. MNKD management has also mentioned pulmonary treatment as another application for Technosphere, a logical extension of the Afrezza inhaler. During the last conference call, they talked about 18 months and this with a BP aside!
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Post by thekindaguyiyam on May 20, 2015 13:11:57 GMT -5
thanks Baba.
I've got a couple of other investments... the share price is ripe and I wanted some more. The catalysts are looking good to me. I do agree with you that borrowing is not a good idea regarding investing. For me it is a temporary act; I get a check in a couple of weeks. I consider this a gift to myself. I'm a Psych Grad btw.
Everything is a risk. And my confidence is busting at the seems.
The smoke and mirror reality of short selling has nothing to do with afrezza, the distribution (supply and demand) and marketing; it's a commodity to shorts; to Karp.
Alfred has achieved where giants have failed. If the price of the shares are tossed around at any moment it's just part of the ride. Alfred being Alfred invested in this company and the Tesla of our contemporary age give me huge confidence in being at the right place at the right time with what I know as a result of reading you and others I respect here. thanks again for your contributions.
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Post by babaoriley on May 20, 2015 13:44:41 GMT -5
Lovely, classy response, thekindagyiyam, best of luck, and I'm confident you're correct on ultimate success.
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Post by parrerob on May 20, 2015 15:37:31 GMT -5
It's interesting to me how difficult it is for reason to win the day over our more innate psychological tendencies. I remember well when we first broke below $5 several days ago. Uh-oh. I wonder what this foretells. I hope we hold the line here. Then the tanking through the $4's and into the $3's. The psychological pain was palpable. The wails and cries and gnashing of teeth ensued. (You all couldn't hear me because I stayed off the board. You're welcome for that by the way).
Now, here we are, at $4.90 or so pre-market. Everything feels so much better! When we were in the $3's (and I don't discount the possibility that we may be there again before all is said and done), my reason told me that it would be temporary, that the market was manipulated, that it was all based on FUD, that weak longs were the prey, that I needed to hunker down and not be the prey, etc... Importantly, I ACTED according to reason. But my stomach didn't!
I'm not happy about $4.90's, more relieved really, but there's that psychology at work again. Several days ago when we breached $5..."Uh-oh". Today as we approach $5..."Ah, that feels better".
What's changed fundamentally? Nothing. Something changed, imo, from when we broke below 5 few weeks ago (not the first time for my mnkd shares... day before adcom and october 14): We know why prescriptions are quite stable 200+ while renewals are so optimistic. We know that no dilutions will happen. We know more on TS (info still poor but we know much more). We know (still to be confirmed) that institutional ownership is increasing again. And my personal fundamentals changed too: I own more shares now. About short controll I believe their time is over. Maximum beginning of february 2016 when we will have Afrezza earnings related to q4 2015 the game will be over ! That day is so near and we can have a large variety of good news/catalysts much before ! Good luck from Italy PS in my office near Milan, I know there are 3 MNKD shares owners with a lot of long shares. Sometimes I think this is unbelievable... just 1 building in 1 city of 1 country more then 6000 km far away from USA.... I believe that worldwide retailers owns more Mnkd shares then institutions !!!! Make your calculations!
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Post by savzak on May 20, 2015 15:42:05 GMT -5
PS in my office near Milan, I know there are 3 MNKD shares owners with a lot of long shares. Sometimes I think this is unbelievable... just 1 building in 1 city of 1 country more then 6000 km far away from USA.... I believe that worldwide retailers owns more Mnkd shares then institutions !!!! Make your calculations! Very cool.
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Post by babaoriley on May 20, 2015 15:58:19 GMT -5
Yes, very cool indeed, but I actually wish there were more Afrezza users near you than shareholders!
So shorts will be broken by the latest February 2016? Great, just when my remaining warrants expire, wish you could move that up a month!
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Post by savzak on May 20, 2015 16:01:57 GMT -5
Yes, very cool indeed, but I actually wish there were more Afrezza users near you than shareholders! So shorts will be broken by the latest February 2016? Great, just when my remaining warrants expire, wish you could move that up a month! LOL. Baba, I converted the last of my warrants to Jan 17 $3 calls last week. I'd have done it sooner but they needed reach their first birthday in my account and achieve long term status first. That didn't happen until April.
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