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Post by oscarlonzo on Jun 10, 2015 22:58:38 GMT -5
"Matt proceeded to provide a broad stroke..." According to the SA transcript it was Haken that answered -- who's correct? When I read it I found it odd that Matt, who had done most of the talking to that point, suddenly fell silent and Haken took over.
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Post by benh on Jun 11, 2015 1:54:07 GMT -5
CapEx on capacity. 'Not this year or anytime soon'. This is the only method at the moment to forecast growth and it broke my model.
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Post by kball on Jun 11, 2015 6:44:12 GMT -5
Well, with the GS inquisition, and Amy's T's disappointment in the coming out party for Afrezza at ADA, its clear that SNY and MNKD still have work to do (awareness, convincing, production, and global push at some point).
At least it appears mannkind is going on offense since the BOA presentation.
The interesting thing i find is that as a result of this forum, I feel there is very little the company says at these things that hasn't been discussed and brought to light here first. Both the problems they are experiencing as well as the results patients are having.
Still haven't sold a single share and bought my latest block was at 3.57.
As more and more diabetics post their results and pressure the system, this company should do very well. Just can't get a handle on when. But mid 2017 might be a good time to look back at some of these posts to see where we went.
btw--after mondays run up, i feel pretty relaxed as i didnt go out and spend that short lived windfall (not that I sold, just felt a lot wealthier).
I may have bought a decorative pot for the house but that was it. Total $100.00
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Post by Deleted on Jun 11, 2015 6:50:28 GMT -5
CapEx on capacity. 'Not this year or anytime soon'. This is the only method at the moment to forecast growth and it broke my model. But we knew this Ben, it's in their 5 yr OPEX spend. They don't allocate addititional machinery in it. Therefore they expect the first 5 years to reach 1 bln in sales. We can modify the model to understand how they are doing against that trajectory
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Post by benh on Jun 11, 2015 11:53:55 GMT -5
CapEx on capacity. 'Not this year or anytime soon'. This is the only method at the moment to forecast growth and it broke my model. But we knew this Ben, it's in their 5 yr OPEX spend. They don't allocate addititional machinery in it. Therefore they expect the first 5 years to reach 1 bln in sales. We can modify the model to understand how they are doing against that trajectory I think I may have misunderstood, and/or mistook the context. When I get some time, will have another read. .....
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Post by kball on Jun 11, 2015 18:39:22 GMT -5
I didn't listen to the presentation Q and A, only read the postings here about it. But do i remember reading that Hakan was coughing and sounded really bad (might be from YMB)?
Because i for sure remember him saying on the 1 quarter CC he was to see his endo at the end of may.
Anyone else a bit uneasy to do a little addition here and add 1+1
I'm probably being ultra paranoid. But owning this stock can do that
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Post by james on Jun 11, 2015 18:54:00 GMT -5
Listening to the audio recording, Hakan was clearly suffering from a head cold. He sounded nasally right from the start and had a couple of quick coughs early on. I don't hear anything unusual there.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Jun 11, 2015 19:09:12 GMT -5
GS is already a shark on the street, but to pay to be interviewed from the same analyst that downgraded them in March makes me question managements competency. Right, and if Mannkind would not have attended management would have gotten accused of not wanting to face detractors. At the end of the day they did what needed to be done, go answer question honestly and chuckle at the ridiculousness of a specific one. Out of all the transcript text, this is the one (below) that caught my eye (attention) the most...take if fwiw and I doubt anywhere in my previous posts you will ever see me bringing up "buy outs" or "buy ins" for that matter as I have left that speculation to others. However, the following actually made me "stop in my tracks" and read it two or three times in the context of the Q&A specific to the subject in the question: Jay Olson - Goldman Sachs Okay. And just going back to the agreement with Sanofi briefly, another question that I know I get, you may have also received queries about is just in terms of if Sanofi did choose to opt out of the AFREZZA agreement? Can you describe for us what that would sort of look like in terms of their obligations or notification, any financial obligations, timing of how that would happen? Hakan Edstrom - Chief Executive Officer So, for all, I just look all the agreements just kind of complex, I don’t want to go into -- I’ll give you the broad brush. I mean, this document is the public document. So if anybody wants to go into details they can find it. And obviously, we have no reason to think that and we have a lot of reasons to think the opposite, but Sanofi is very devoted to this product and has a firm commitment.
That to me could be interpreted in varying degrees across the "they like us" spectrum as Hakan has been the one traveling back and forth to France from what I've gathered from past conferences...etc. Did that stand out to anyone else that read that or am I just reading too much into it...either way it was one of those things that made me go back and read it again and again in the flow of the context of the question. I pictured it kind of like the voices in their heads went like this "so as far as a commonly asked question regarding Sanofi's continued commitment" -Jay, "not sure about your insinuated FUD on behalf of you or your firm's short clients position BUT opting in may be more of where their (Sanofi's mindset continues to increase)" -Hakan
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Post by hopetoretire on Jun 11, 2015 19:34:01 GMT -5
kball - It is recorded and you can still listen to it. It (cough and content) is not that bad and nothing to worry about. Worry about other things I guess. Actually, my only lingering worry is about SNY. I have not seen the oft-reported commitment to our success. It worries me that there is never any mention of pursuing approvals world-wide and I have feelings of jealousy when Toujeo gets a kiss or a hug or a dozen slides in a diabetes presentation. Still, my SNY worry does nor keep me awake, not cause me to bail out. Owner since IPO.
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Post by jpg on Jun 11, 2015 20:37:58 GMT -5
I didn't listen to the presentation Q and A, only read the postings here about it. But do i remember reading that Hakan was coughing and sounded really bad (might be from YMB)? Because i for sure remember him saying on the 1 quarter CC he was to see his endo at the end of may. Anyone else a bit uneasy to do a little addition here and add 1+1 I'm probably being ultra paranoid. But owning this stock can do that What?
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Post by kball on Jun 11, 2015 21:22:48 GMT -5
Listening to the audio recording, Hakan was clearly suffering from a head cold. He sounded nasally right from the start and had a couple of quick coughs early on. I don't hear anything unusual there. Ok. I was praying it wasn't because he started afrezza and was experiencing some side effects others have been reporting. Woud be weirdly ironic
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Post by lynn on Jun 11, 2015 23:22:31 GMT -5
I'm so green to investing in general ( though I've read almost Everything Mannkind related for the past 17 months ) . Could it be because at full capacity of 3 lines running we only have enough inventory to meet the demand of 1 box per month of 166,000 patients ( & didn't Eric say he's going thru 4 a month ?). Maybe that # in my head is for 1 line so feel free to correct me regardless . But even if I'm way off & you multiply that by 3 I don't see why we'd be pursuing EU , ect Approval at this time if we can't even capture a small % of the US Mkt with the Supply that is available . It's not like this is the latest Cancer Drug that affects a small % of the population . Diabetes is a full blown Pandemic is it not? I love constructive criticism & welcome it here . But it's my understanding that there are 29 Million Diabetics's in this country & 60 million plus Pre Diabetics . Just another 2 cents from me I know we all look forward to another Happy Day like Monday , but I'd be Happy to see Sanofi step it up to create demand here first . And though I only witnessed it from one user ( which I shared about on another post & no longer am willing to stake my reputation on it ) . More education is needed for the Docs who might/ should Prescribe it . This I do Believe . Lynn
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Post by mbseeking on Jun 12, 2015 0:28:06 GMT -5
I'm so green to investing in general ( though I've read almost Everything Mannkind related for the past 17 months ) . Could it be because at full capacity of 3 lines running we only have enough inventory to meet the demand of 1 box per month of 166,000 patients ( & didn't Eric say he's going thru 4 a month ?). Maybe that # in my head is for 1 line so feel free to correct me regardless . But even if I'm way off & you multiply that by 3 I don't see why we'd be pursuing EU , ect Approval at this time if we can't even capture a small % of the US Mkt with the Supply that is available . It's not like this is the latest Cancer Drug that affects a small % of the population . Diabetes is a full blown Pandemic is it not? I love constructive criticism & welcome it here . But it's my understanding that there are 29 Million Diabetics's in this country & 60 million plus Pre Diabetics . Just another 2 cents from me I know we all look forward to another Happy Day like Monday , but I'd be Happy to see Sanofi step it up to create demand here first . And though I only witnessed it from one user ( which I shared about on another post & no longer am willing to stake my reputation on it ) . More education is needed for the Docs who might/ should Prescribe it . This I do Believe . Lynn Agreed.. think is about 166k users per line , so about 1/2 mil capacity now.. I'm sure the timing of the 3 lines is linked to when Sanofi were prepared to start DTC. But the test is the the viral growth on TRX. To get to 2 mil (Danbury cap of 12 lines) in 3 years, and assuming each TRX (in Symphony or IMS) is for 90 days, we need 21-22 % CGR per month. If I use week 8 as start point, we are behind that on Symphony , and trending down, on it still on IMS but trending down. Presumably DTC will give us a big bump bit I cant see how that will improve vitality. Easier spiro access, PA elimination and T3->T2 would all help. It may also improve at same time as DTC as I thought I heard Hakan say that SNY's focus would move from endo to PCP. If PCPs are more user experience focussed, and able to operation as a one-stop-shop , this might drive the viral growth rate.
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Post by oscarlonzo on Jun 12, 2015 6:56:57 GMT -5
"So if anybody wants to go into details they can find it ..." Where can it be found. I looked in a number of places and can't find anything that details when or how Sanofi can "pull the plug."
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Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2015 7:12:24 GMT -5
"So if anybody wants to go into details they can find it ..." Where can it be found. I looked in a number of places and can't find anything that details when or how Sanofi can "pull the plug." Excerpt from Licensing Deal SEC Filing: 12.3 Additional Sanofi Termination Rights. (a) If, at any time on or after January 1, 2016, Sanofi determines in good faith that Commercialization of Product is no longer economically viable in the United States, then Sanofi may terminate this Agreement in its entirety upon delivery of at least ninety (90) days’ prior written notice to MannKind. In addition, at any time on or after January 1, 2016, upon delivery of at least six (6) months’ prior written notice to MannKind, Sanofi shall have the right to terminate this Agreement for any reason (a) in its entirety, or (b) on a country-by-country basis other than with respect to the United States; provided, however, that if Sanofi terminates this Agreement under this Section 12.3(a) in each of […***…], then Sanofi shall terminate this Agreement with respect to all countries of the European Union. For purposes of clarity, Sanofi shall have no right to terminate this Agreement with respect to only the United States under this Section 12.3(a). www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/899460/000119312514406347/d783199dex101.htm
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