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Post by oscarlonzo on Jun 12, 2015 7:13:12 GMT -5
"Could it be because at full capacity of 3 lines running we only have enough inventory ..." One thing I always wondered about was if Sanofi were fully confident and truly 100% committed, why wouldn't they use their expertise and obviously huge resources to build their own afrezza manufacturing plants so lack of product wouldn't ever be an issue? No matter what MNKD management says, to me it still looks like Sanofi is just "test driving" afrezza.
And the GS conference is another instance -- where was Sanofi? On one hand, Haken is telling shareholders to address their questions and complaints about afrezza marketing and sales to Sanofi because that's "their" end of the deal, while on the other hand he's at this conference answering similar questions that, ostensibly, he can't or otherwise doesn't want to answer.
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Post by oscarlonzo on Jun 12, 2015 7:15:35 GMT -5
Thanks for SEC link!
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Post by mbseeking on Jun 12, 2015 7:46:38 GMT -5
"Could it be because at full capacity of 3 lines running we only have enough inventory ..." One thing I always wondered about was if Sanofi were fully confident and truly 100% committed, why wouldn't they use their expertise and obviously huge resources to build their own afrezza manufacturing plants so lack of product wouldn't ever be an issue? No matter what MNKD management says, to me it still looks like Sanofi is just "test driving" afrezza. And the GS conference is another instance -- where was Sanofi? On one hand, Haken is telling shareholders to address their questions and complaints about afrezza marketing and sales to Sanofi because that's "their" end of the deal, while on the other hand he's at this conference answering similar questions that, ostensibly, he can't or otherwise doesn't want to answer. Am sure I heard somewhere that the deal is , for now.. Danbury does the US. That is 12 line capacity , 2M users. Not sure if US users exceed that. For supply elsewhere , again thought I'd read that SNY does the mfg. Again I cant find that now.. maybe I heard it on a call.
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Post by mbseeking on Jun 12, 2015 7:52:18 GMT -5
I'm so green to investing in general ( though I've read almost Everything Mannkind related for the past 17 months ) . Could it be because at full capacity of 3 lines running we only have enough inventory to meet the demand of 1 box per month of 166,000 patients ( & didn't Eric say he's going thru 4 a month ?). Maybe that # in my head is for 1 line so feel free to correct me regardless . But even if I'm way off & you multiply that by 3 I don't see why we'd be pursuing EU , ect Approval at this time if we can't even capture a small % of the US Mkt with the Supply that is available . It's not like this is the latest Cancer Drug that affects a small % of the population . Diabetes is a full blown Pandemic is it not? I love constructive criticism & welcome it here . But it's my understanding that there are 29 Million Diabetics's in this country & 60 million plus Pre Diabetics . Just another 2 cents from me I know we all look forward to another Happy Day like Monday , but I'd be Happy to see Sanofi step it up to create demand here first . And though I only witnessed it from one user ( which I shared about on another post & no longer am willing to stake my reputation on it ) . More education is needed for the Docs who might/ should Prescribe it . This I do Believe . Lynn Agreed.. think is about 166k users per line , so about 1/2 mil capacity now.. I'm sure the timing of the 3 lines is linked to when Sanofi were prepared to start DTC. But the test is the the viral growth on TRX. To get to 2 mil (Danbury cap of 12 lines) in 3 years, and assuming each TRX (in Symphony or IMS) is for 90 days, we need 21-22 % CGR per month. If I use week 8 as start point, we are behind that on Symphony , and trending down, on it still on IMS but trending down. Presumably DTC will give us a big bump bit I cant see how that will improve vitality. Easier spiro access, PA elimination and T3->T2 would all help. It may also improve at same time as DTC as I thought I heard Hakan say that SNY's focus would move from endo to PCP. If PCPs are more user experience focussed, and able to operation as a one-stop-shop , this might drive the viral growth rate. Symphony back on track this morning with 422 TRX..wk 19 . If over wk 8 (my start point ) of 248 that's monthly compound of 21.3%... That will get us to 2-3 mil users 2-3 in years.
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