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Post by brentie on Jun 11, 2015 16:29:12 GMT -5
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Post by dudley on Jun 11, 2015 18:50:47 GMT -5
People who believe the "300 or so" script count numbers are failing to grasp some salient facts about the prescription process. First of all, the scripts everyone is fixated upon are from the Symphony database. This only includes pharmacies linked to that database and EXCLUDE the major chains such as CVS, Walgreen, Walmart, Giant stores and many others who do not report prescriptions, period. Thus the biggest part of prescriptions will NEVER show up in Symphony. Furthermore, the data is impossibly out of date since it only tracks those prescriptions actually filled at the pharmacy as of a specific point in time. One of the early issues with Afrezza has been the simple fact most patients cannot get in on Day 1 to see their prescribing doctor. Many are reporting 6 weeks or better wait just to get the initial appointment, then another couple of weeks after that for the FEV1 test, insurance clearance and finally picking up the actual prescription where it is captured in the Symphony data. With an 8 week delay factor (which happens to agree with management statements they are about 8 weeks behind where they had expected to be) even a patient entering the "pipeline" process on April 1st still would not have picked up a Symphony-captured prescription that would be captured in the database as of the last reporting date of 5/29. Thus the script counts in these early months are completely irrelevant since the bulk of the data is at a minimum not only 8 weeks old or more but also exclude the larger percent that is not captured ANYWHERE. Symphony script data won't be a good predictor of actual Afrezza demand for a good while yet until the critical mass of scripts covers at least 6 months and the wait time starts decreasing with the flow enhancement solutions Sanofi is implementing now begin to gain traction.
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