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Post by mannmade on Nov 13, 2013 18:58:39 GMT -5
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Post by babaoriley on Nov 13, 2013 20:34:28 GMT -5
Absolutely, no argument from anyone rational that the market is huge and likely to get even larger. It's just those three annoying letters, "FDA," and our inability, to date, to find ourselves a nice big brother.
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Post by alcc on Nov 13, 2013 23:10:52 GMT -5
It seems to me whether we find a big brother before or after PDUFA is immaterial. Everything still hinges on approval. On that point, I cannot imagine if we get approval that we cannot find a big brother. Thus, net, net, approval is the tipping point. I would not worry about partnership.
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Post by babaoriley on Nov 14, 2013 0:13:29 GMT -5
Short and intermediate term (from now until PDUFA Date, and, assuming approval, for whatever time thereafter until partnership is struck), and with relation to the share price, it is very material. It will give all who want to take advantage of it, a good chance to pull some serious money out before the FDA decision. That's going to make a huge difference to many investors, who will otherwise hold their maximum amount of shares until the decision. Believe me when I tell you there is no sure thing with the FDA.
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Post by alcc on Nov 14, 2013 1:17:02 GMT -5
You are right that FDA is no sure thing. Few things in life are sure things. I would not dispute that a partnership pre-announcement might give a good lift to the share price. And I would not give advise as to what a shareholder should do in the event. However, it seems to me those investors who would lighten up at such an event probably did lighten or should have lightened up substantially already at announcement of top line results. And that's all fine. Maybe even prudent. Just not my personal method. I have stocks that are low risk. This one is all or nothing. And I am happy to not cut my profit short but let it run with Al Mann. I learned long ago that the best way to invest is to invest in smart people/team with big ideas and integrity. Good luck to all. Cheers!
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Post by babaoriley on Nov 14, 2013 1:59:10 GMT -5
The announcement of top line results did not give many a good chance to take lighten up, it was such a quick spike up, then pretty hard down. A partnership will give a bit more time. I get the feeling, although I could be very wrong, that many of those who frequent this board as poster and/or reader, have an inordinate proportion of their net worth in MNKD. Alcc, I applaud your method, and my intention is to make sure everyone is exposed to different types of thinking on how to play this stock.
Now, let's see if we can string two good days together, that hasn't happened in quite a while!
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Post by biotec on Nov 14, 2013 9:10:40 GMT -5
I had no time to take anything from the trials, Like many it was up then wam back done. I agree with bab, We need a partner before pdufa. Im saying asap need a partner, A lot of work to get done in short time. Yes there will be a run up before the pdufa, But we need that BP partnership pop.
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Post by rak5555 on Nov 14, 2013 9:44:05 GMT -5
At least w/ Greenhill involved we don't have to worry whether all possible creative structures are being considered. If there is a way to structure a deal around FDA approval and alternative labels and alternative sales achievements, they can do it.
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Post by savzak on Nov 14, 2013 9:59:57 GMT -5
Hello all, I haven't posted here much, if at all. I just want to chime in on the partnership timing issue. I agree that there is no technical reason that partnership needs to occur before approval. But it would be much better in terms of a speedy commercialization of the product. Most importantly though, I think it is psychologically important. If we don't partner by early spring it will raise questions as to why. Everyone will recall the fact that we didn't partner last time around and then ended up with the crl. We also have financing concerns that crop up the longer we go on. In short, I think MNKD needs to partner sooner rather than later and I think it is important enough that they need to be flexible in their terms to get it done. |
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Post by mdcenter61 on Nov 14, 2013 11:16:08 GMT -5
Hello all, I haven't posted here much, if at all. I just want to chime in on the partnership timing issue. I agree that there is no technical reason that partnership needs to occur before approval. But it would be much better in terms of a speedy commercialization of the product. Most importantly though, I think it is psychologically important. If we don't partner by early spring it will raise questions as to why. Everyone will recall the fact that we didn't partner last time around and then ended up with the crl. We also have financing concerns that crop up the longer we go on. In short, I think MNKD needs to partner sooner rather than later and I think it is important enough that they need to be flexible in their terms to get it done. Totally agree, Savzak - aside from the PPS bump and the commercialization speed up with having a BP partner, having a big brother BP partner legitimizes the quest in the marketplace and also makes it less likely for manipulation of the FDA by a short hedgie or competitor (yes, firmly in conspiracy camp). We need a bodyguard with skin in the game. |
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Post by nemzter on Nov 14, 2013 19:22:25 GMT -5
Per Matt from today's conference call:
"New players, very gratifying, can think of at least 1 that should've been there all along."
I hope it's 1 of the big 3. Does make sense that he also mentioned about management changes and direction, since BP is losing patents, they have to find new ways in looking profitable for the foreseeable future with no new products that are coming out any time soon.
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Post by jpg on Nov 15, 2013 0:12:28 GMT -5
Who are the ''big three''?
Not that it makes any difference but I certainly know who I would want to partner with them.
Call this a long shot but I would want Novartis. They never get mentioned as a possible partner but I can dream....
Anyone else have any favorite top picks?
JPG
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