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Post by docint3144 on Jul 13, 2015 20:57:53 GMT -5
I am in this for more than the value Afrezza brings to MNKD. Afrezza will generate the cash required for more R&D to develope more product using TS. This truly is a disruptive technology and with every new product the goose lays another golden egg.
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Post by gwb on Jul 13, 2015 20:59:46 GMT -5
GWB, just a FYI. Viagra will never work with Technophere. It lowers the blood pressure too fast. Al Mann told that to me personally. There is however plenty of other options. We should be hearing the 1st indication pretty soon. Hopefully by the next quarterly conference. I heard that from AL also ( Heart attack before Hard-on )those were not his exact words, but I have seen posts from science types that state, because Viagra was developed from heart studies , there may be a way to slow the reaction in the body .Like Lantus being developed by changing the amino acid chain and the release was slower . I have seen all these arguments , I throw it out as an example of board discussions , for the next 10 years !
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Post by kc on Jul 13, 2015 21:06:44 GMT -5
My number is over $37.00. I see that happening when SANOFI gets EMA approval after the clamp study is completed in early 2016.
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Post by mbseeking on Jul 13, 2015 21:07:06 GMT -5
I like to think of it in terms of market cap with respect to how the sales figures are. If in the next year the price goes to 12-14 which would represent a 5 billion market cap, I will be selling some small number of trading shares. If it hits 18-20 which would be closer to a 10 billion market cap, I will lighten by half my position and wait for a better re-entry point. For the long term, I have nothing better to do with the money so I expect to hold for the next 5-10 years to see the true value of MNKD unlocked through more TS applications. I believe that Afrezza in the most optimistic of projections and at peak sales is worth perhaps 8 billion so the other TS applications will be what drives the long term value of the company past the teen range for PPS (assuming no further dilution). Patryn I appreciate all your contributions to the board , most people here have never worked on Wall Street ( Goldman ) and really understand the actual functioning of transactions , my self included . I believe the total number of shares outstanding ( with options ,warrants and convertible instruments ) is 500 million. 10B=$20 PPS . I am waiting till Dr. Mann sells like Ashiwi is . I would be happy with your numbers of $18 to $ 20 , but I think ( hope ) Dr. Mann will ask for a bit more . I believe Afrezza is not going to remain with MNDK , it's going to be sold and after all these years , I am in no hurry . How great would it be if we all got money or SNY shares for Afrezza and then receive shares for TS in a new company ( probably for taxes that would be the structure ) ! We would all still be here for the next 10 years discussing TS developments, like why or why not Viagra will work with TS.
My thesis on the MNKD outcome over 3-5 years remains : Complete Fail : 5%, Niche Product: 20% , Significantly better than Niche (2-3M users) :40% Blockbuster (>5M users) 35%. Ongoing script growth rates =>38% / mth , positive actions by SNY all will tilt me more toward the last two cases. With well received additional TS applications I believe MNKD could end up with a very low discount rate which will drive up its capitalisation i.e. good traction on diabetes and more growth promised. My gut tells me 10B cap should be just a step on the way. There may even be an additional scenario I need to add to my thesis. Let's call it the Stratospheric i.e. probably $100B cap or greater. The context around MNKD discussion so far has been in the US (advanced medical ) and other western countries. But the diabetes explosion is happening in countries with out a large endocrinologist network / medical infrastructure. Afrezza may just turn out to be the ONLY product to really address diabetes in these countries since it is storable , simple to prescribe and administer. At the moment I'd only ascribe a 5% chance to my Stratospheric case, but when you see the potential saving in lives by simply pairing oxycontin (from blood loss at maternity) with TS and the context rapidly changes. There is a chance that TS is Edison's light bulb to the gas lamp.
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Post by sportsrancho on Jul 13, 2015 22:17:00 GMT -5
I was at my best friends house the day she got her check from MiniMed. She just buys and holds. Never looks at the stock price. She sells when Al sells. So when I invested in MNKD that was my plan. And it's still the plan. But boy has my life changed. Spreading the word because of seeing first hand how Afrezza has changed lives is my priority! And I'm betting the stock price takes care of itself. And I just know if I sold at 40 Al would sell it for 50!
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Post by boomboom on Jul 13, 2015 22:21:20 GMT -5
I have often thought to do an exercise that would give me confidence in my price targets. The biggest problem I think most of us face here is time. As time draws on longer and we remain with our core position, the value of our core position at our price target begins to devalue. Doubling your money in a year is not the same as doubling it over five years. This is where most of us succumb to moving our price targets out farther than we should allow. Then when a "squeeze" occurs and surpasses our old price target but does not reach our new one, we get upset, slap our heads and say "duh, with our current sales how can I expect a P/E of 100 right now!".
So I was thinking of a way to solve this issue and thought maybe we can all do this exercise to see what we can collectively come up with.
My vision of this exercise is to have a curve that assumes a conservative P/E ratio (debatable, opinionated, and up to you) and plot target prices based off of prescriptions rolling averaged over the past month (X-axis prescriptions, Y-Axis price target). I would use this curve as a road map for exits and entrances into the stock until technosphere applications are more clear. I would use an average of the short-side price targets to determine my re-entrys as they seem to be able to get it down pretty close to this averages every time they announce their estimates.
This way your price target moves up with "reason" and sticks with rational selling points. This could help prevent you from "missing the boat" and illogical emotionally based price targets =)
Just a thought
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Post by saxcmann on Jul 13, 2015 23:28:48 GMT -5
I think it depends on how we get there... big news and the pps jumps quickly then I'm holding. If no major news and shorts are hanging around then I'll take some off the table. For the most part, I'll keep my core position and sell when Al sells. Its nice collecting interest on my shares while we wait...I should have started the lending program 6 months earlier! It makes waiting for the short squeeze much easier!
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Post by suebeeee1 on Jul 13, 2015 23:56:50 GMT -5
I'll be here when the company is sold and then PERHAPS I will sell if I don't like the new company as much. I never thought I would be "wed" to a company...until MNKD. But now with all the hope that the technosphere technology presents, this company could be innovating for a long time to come!
Till death do us part!
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Post by coco on Jul 14, 2015 0:07:50 GMT -5
I'll sell when Al sells. I'm in no rush. Would hate to sell prematurely and miss the big run up.
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Post by charlespk on Jul 14, 2015 1:25:37 GMT -5
i am the rookie on this board, but here is my two cents contribution to the question of PPS to sell some shares.
Have owned and accumulated MNKD for just two years , currently my position, is that i am slightly higher than the current PPS , therefore not losing much and feel very comfortable that PPS is never going to be less than 5 , even if Afrezza fails to deliver , only because TS is so valuable to any Big Pharma that the current market cap of 2.3 billion is no big deal for a big pharma company ( my humble opinion) . As sales of Afrezza increase and market penetration ocurrs i think its reasonable to say that it will be back at 11 or 12 ( FDA approval) , where we could have sold but I elected to hold on. This PPS of 11 or 12 should be coming in 2016 , if not sooner .
From there on , it will depend on what happens at the global level , there is nothing like Afrezza and once it has gone global , it may reach 16 to 20 .
I may sell a small portion of my shares between 15 and 20 , enough to recover my cost , so from there on , its all pure profit ( or no loss) in the worst case.
But like other board members have clearly stated TS is the disruptive technology and what will truly make this company take off.
So i can wait five years , at which time I believe it will be around 40 to 50 .
Have to be pt , learned my lesson from Amylin , owned it at 10 , sold when it went down to 5 , and now trades at 30, but that took several years .
Good luck to all longs .
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Post by parrerob on Jul 14, 2015 4:08:28 GMT -5
The same for me was recently in EGRX. But I am not so afraid. Every time I regret having sold means the gain is in the pocket. Many many times I saw my investments going up in few days, then thinking will go up more, and then in few days corroding my gain ..... (My recent examples RNN, NVAX, PVCT, CUR)
What about MNKD (my most important investment) ? I didn't sold 1 share 1 year ago at 11 (my medium share cost was 7$ at that time), and I was clearly wrong at that time. Why I should sell them now (supposing going to 11$ again) 1 year later with product on the market and seems doing well ? I am available to keep MNKD shares for a very long time expecting to see PPS going up then down then up (well described by Robert S.) ... But now I am expecting higher lows and higher tops during time. We have Afrezza, that seems to start penetrating the market, with good results from early adopters (we have an important base, on the market yet ) Then we have TS. The future. The reason why I will not sell (at least until I don't realize the real TS opportnity).
Afrezza sales, in the meantime, will support our PPS ... How can PPS go below 5 nowadays ? How can PPS go below 7 in september ? How can PPS go below 9 next February 2016 after Q4 2015 earnings ? .... and so on ... until TS come sout
I don't know when and at which PPS I will sell my MNKD shares... Till now I am still in buying on dip phase
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Post by esstan2001 on Jul 14, 2015 6:49:54 GMT -5
I don't have any specific sell points, but I can say this much: on my ride up with GMCR, I got to enjoy about 3 short squeezes, and each time I sold some on general principles. While I ended up doing well, if I'd just held on that first time or two instead of lightening up to "lock in profits", right now I wouldn't even care what MNKD was going to do because I'd already have been filthy rich. There's a lesson in there somewhere... that "Greed is Good" ?? :-)
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Post by cusop on Jul 14, 2015 7:09:31 GMT -5
Good question,
I think that I will sell in my two trading accounts at different times, it comes down to what you want to do with the money, In my IRA its there as an investment vehicle and trading is based on what to invest in next and where that particular stock may be. Many of us have already seen the stock hit above 10 and we have not sold so my guess is that real sell of longs is going to be 20+ region and I will definitely hold one account out for that..
12+ then reinvest
20+ then take the profit f there is any :0
or -1 if Cramer and gang gat their way!!!
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Post by babaoriley on Jul 14, 2015 10:13:10 GMT -5
I have often thought to do an exercise that would give me confidence in my price targets. The biggest problem I think most of us face here is time. As time draws on longer and we remain with our core position, the value of our core position at our price target begins to devalue. Doubling your money in a year is not the same as doubling it over five years. This is where most of us succumb to moving our price targets out farther than we should allow. Then when a "squeeze" occurs and surpasses our old price target but does not reach our new one, we get upset, slap our heads and say "duh, with our current sales how can I expect a P/E of 100 right now!". So I was thinking of a way to solve this issue and thought maybe we can all do this exercise to see what we can collectively come up with. My vision of this exercise is to have a curve that assumes a conservative P/E ratio (debatable, opinionated, and up to you) and plot target prices based off of prescriptions rolling averaged over the past month (X-axis prescriptions, Y-Axis price target). I would use this curve as a road map for exits and entrances into the stock until technosphere applications are more clear. I would use an average of the short-side price targets to determine my re-entrys as they seem to be able to get it down pretty close to this averages every time they announce their estimates. This way your price target moves up with "reason" and sticks with rational selling points. This could help prevent you from "missing the boat" and illogical emotionally based price targets =) Just a thought I'd love to follow your system, boomboom, but only after fast acting headache medication delivered by TechnoSphere is available.
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Post by Chris-C on Jul 14, 2015 10:40:29 GMT -5
OK. I'll join the party. I'll probably sell a couple thousand shares at $20, another 2-3K at $35 and then reserve the remaining 80% of my current long position for the Technosphere train ride. As I've said before, this is a long haul stock.
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