Buyout

[orlon]

Baba, maybe not the only conclusion I could come up with but just one that makes sense. My imagination started running wild in June 2008 when I started investing in MNKD. I imagined a medical breakthrough, a new paradigm shift, and being the good capitalist, money. I never imagined that after all the trials and tribulations including two rejections by the FDA, approval by the FDA, partnering with a major pharma that focuses on diabetes, that the company would still be in the $5.00 trading range, investors would be lending shares to be shorted for dividends and using a rationale that 'we might as well make money while we wait to see what happens to the company,' and that company would be one of the heaviest shorted stocks on Wall Street. MNKD used to be a fighter before it hooked up with Sanofi...no more.  I now imagine a sale of MNKD for 7billion to a major pharma. Nothing wrong with that. 

[mnholdem]

Jul 19, 2015 1:25:32 GMT -5 babaoriley said:

"The only conclusion I can come to is that Sanofi is sandbagging MNKD through slow marketing, and will buy the company before the end of the year. What say ye?"

orlon, the first thing I'll say is if that is the only conclusion you can come to, then you need to let your imagination run just a bit more free! C'mon, there are many conclusions one can come to, like, perhaps Sanofi entered into the deal in good faith.

This whole "controlled launch" by Sanofi has much in common with Muhammad Ali's now-famous rope-a-dope strategy. The illusion of "no offensive" has a well-designed purpose. While I admit that I think this limited action is short-lived,  I'm pretty eager to find out if any of my/our theories are correct.

I have NO DOUBT that Afrezza will become a block buster for Sanofi, perhaps in very much the same manner in which Lantus started out slow, but steadily kept building & building until it became the #1 prescribed diabetes drug.

[Deleted]

Jul 18, 2015 15:23:54 GMT -5 orlon said:

I know this topic has been bandied about before, but it appears that a MNKD buyout by Sanofi does not sound to crazy. I noted before that the slow rollout was a nonsense, the script counts reflect that despite numerous positive post by early adopters. It seems to me that a buyout would make sense. Al Mann has sold his companies before. What is it that makes MNKD different? I'm not convinced the DTC campaign will be productive without TV ads...I know some on this board think otherwise, but unless this product is placed before the general public to let diabetics know that a much better approach to treatment and an alternative to needles exist, they may never know. Look at the posts by those who visited their endos and found they either don't know about AFREZZA or won't write a prescription for it based on lack of knowledge. I visited my PCP Friday and he never heard of AFREZZA. The only conclusion I can come to is that Sanofi is sandbagging MNKD through slow marketing, and will buy the company before the end of the year. What say ye? 

If they are sandbagging mnkd it's not to buy they on the cheap, it's to bury the drug.  The thought process would be something like "well, if sny couldn't make it work, nobody can".  Or, "the drug doesn't work as previously thought" which would have the effect of burying afrezza along side exubera.  SNY won't need to buy afrezza, it'll go the way of exubera and leave the world unchanged - injected insulins and pills to treat diabetes.  If the goal by sny was to bury afrezza this would be an excellent way to do it.  Ask yourself, who would pay to pick up afrezza after sny "demonstrated" that it's not a blockbuster?  It would protect injections/pills for quite a number of years.

I said it months ago and unless sny makes a change in their marketing (like, direct and everywhere blasting type marketing), afrezza isn't going to skyrocket anytime soon.  Everyone keeps saying sny knows what they are doing.  Its possible everyone is right, just not in the way they thought or hoped.

Some real proof will be insurance coverage.  Will sny lower the price to get better coverage?  if they don't, millions will not be able to afford the medication.  And I can go on and on here on the risk side of this investment, but I've documented my risk side here.  Besides, it's boring!  And, I liquidated my position when it was in the high 6's just recently.  I felt it was a serious gift, took my profits, and redeployed to other investment interests.  But, as a medication I'm still very interested in tracking afrezza.  I know what advair did for my disease management.  I hope diabetics get the opportunity to have the same.

[Deleted]

Jul 20, 2015 12:17:06 GMT -5 mnholdem said:

Jul 19, 2015 1:25:32 GMT -5 babaoriley said:

"The only conclusion I can come to is that Sanofi is sandbagging MNKD through slow marketing, and will buy the company before the end of the year. What say ye?"

orlon, the first thing I'll say is if that is the only conclusion you can come to, then you need to let your imagination run just a bit more free! C'mon, there are many conclusions one can come to, like, perhaps Sanofi entered into the deal in good faith.

This whole "controlled launch" by Sanofi has much in common with Muhammad Ali's now-famous rope-a-dope strategy. The illusion of "no offensive" has a well-designed purpose. While I admit that I think this limited action is short-lived,  I'm pretty eager to find out if any of my/our theories are correct.

I have NO DOUBT that Afrezza will become a block buster for Sanofi, perhaps in very much the same manner in which Lantus started out slow, but steadily kept building & building until it became the #1 prescribed diabetes drug.

didn't lantus do about 45-50 million in sales it's first year out?  No a skyrocket, but, not exactly slow.....But I suppose it's all perspective.

[Deleted]

Jul 18, 2015 15:47:56 GMT -5 mssciguy said:

Jul 18, 2015 15:23:54 GMT -5 orlon said:

I know this topic has been bandied about before, but it appears that a MNKD buyout by Sanofi does not sound to crazy. I noted before that the slow rollout was a nonsense, the script counts reflect that despite numerous positive post by early adopters. It seems to me that a buyout would make sense. Al Mann has sold his companies before. What is it that makes MNKD different? I'm not convinced the DTC campaign will be productive without TV ads...I know some on this board think otherwise, but unless this product is placed before the general public to let diabetics know that a much better approach to treatment and an alternative to needles exist, they may never know. Look at the posts by those who visited their endos and found they either don't know about AFREZZA or won't write a prescription for it based on lack of knowledge. I visited my PCP Friday and he never heard of AFREZZA. The only conclusion I can come to is that Sanofi is sandbagging MNKD through slow marketing, and will buy the company before the end of the year. What say ye? 

This kind of post floods the ymb daily.... Facts are that 12 u cartridge had to be approved and the line certified, and also that Tier II/preferred coverage and physician education was required prior to any DTC.


Look at the launch graphically as displayed with competence on this board (and also stocktwits).  Clearly we have had exponential growth even without DTC or insurance.


Like Jack Nicholson would say, "This is as good as it gets" (and that will remain true even as we continue with exponential growth).


Buyout?  Nah.  The pipeline is full of new applications.

Most of the charts I've seen produced here are out of context and make it appear like exponential growth is occurring.  But, it's a poor representation of what's happening compared to other drugs at the same time intervals.  Compare it to the first year of lantus which did around 50 mil it's first year out and take a look at a bigger and higher level perspective.  Affrezza is tracking below exubera and exubera did badly.  Afrezza isn't on track to do much this year and if one charts it that way, the reality of what's happening right now is pretty clear.  But hey, much easier on the eyes to "see" exponential growth on a chart

[joeypotsandpans]

Personally have spoken with SNY rep, the "bury the drug conspiracy theory" is hysterical, someone better let the reps know that and the support channels that are in place for the reps while they're at it

[jpg]

Hi Davinci,

Nice to see you post so much today?

[mannmade]

With all due respect and imho I expect Afrezza will do about 45m to 50m in it's first full year and that as you note would be comparable to Lantus. My reasons are as follows:

1.) For 1st Q results (not a full Q as launch was 03.03.15) Sanofi announced 1.1m in revenue from Afrezza.
2.) While I have not checked the script numbers recently, by comparing to last Q, we are on track to do about 3 to 5m for 2nd Q by my account.
3.) Points 1 & 2 above would equal a 4 to 5 fold increase from Q1 to Q2.
4.) Extrapolating (I am not a mathematician) on the Q1 over Q 2 results, if the progression holds, should get us let's say a 3 fold increase for Q3 over Q2 which would be 12 to 15m in revenue for Q3
5.) do the same for Q4, as above at a 2x increase over Q3, and you get 24m to 30m in revenue.
6.) Add up the above which is not quite a full four Q's, and you get 40.1m on the low end and 51.1 on the high end of revenue for what is not even a full 12 months. And with no real advertising.

It is also my understanding from what I have read in other posts (but cannot independently verify) that Exhubera was launched with a fairly strong ad and marketing support campaign.

Call me optimistic, but I do not believe the above personal analysis is unrealistic...

[dreamboatcruise]

@davinci... Apidra did only $336M sales in 2014 for SNY. 65% of Afrezza could be much higher than that. I simply don't see the motivation behind killing Afrezza for a company that has so little market to protect in prandial. If it truly were a bad drug with little potential, SNY could have simply let some other big pharma waste their time... or simply have left MNKD to flounder without funding. If it is a good drug... why on earth would SNY not take advantage of having negotiated the lions share of the profits?

[mnholdem]

Not to mention Sanofi secured exclusive rights to all Technosphere-delivered GLP-1 diabetic drugs as part of their agreement with MannKind, another potentially large source of future revenue for Sanofi.

[Deleted]

Jul 20, 2015 14:43:05 GMT -5 dreamboatcruise said:

@davinci... Apidra did only $336M sales in 2014 for SNY. 65% of Afrezza could be much higher than that. I simply don't see the motivation behind killing Afrezza for a company that has so little market to protect in prandial. If it truly were a bad drug with little potential, SNY could have simply let some other big pharma waste their time... or simply have left MNKD to flounder without funding. If it is a good drug... why on earth would SNY not take advantage of having negotiated the lions share of the profits?

Definitely no argument on the upsides, the potential.  I was referring to the risk side of the equation.  The outcome of course is TBD.

A few things though on your comment - I do believe it is a good drug (not if).  And I also agree with you that SNY did negotiate the lions share of the profits (a fact on my risk side of the equation and a major factor of exiting my position).  But on the risk side isn't whether the drug is good or not, but what is SNY motivation?  We can quote and read quotes about what SNY reps say all day long but what matters is results, not comments from SNY reps.  Seasoned investors know that even what the CEO says has a shelf life of about 15 minutes.  But, to answer the question of why would they waste their time - they aren't wasting their time.  If they are more interested in injectables and pills, then this deal with MNKD effectively puts the competition (inhaled insulin) in their control.  So far, they have it well under control.  Not a bad business decision to use resources to hold up the competition.  But again, that's on the risk side of the equation.  Plenty of posts here (including some of mine) detail the upside potential and that is not in dispute - at least not with me.

[Deleted]

Jul 20, 2015 13:09:10 GMT -5 jpg said:

Hi Davinci,

Nice to see you post so much today?

Been a busy summer for me on a personal and professional level.  But keeping tabs with MNKD stock price but not much else.  If my posts are coming off as bashing or whatever the latest term is for risk side comments, I'll give it a break.  I'm sure it's all been covered by others over and over.

[babaoriley]

davinci,

The Rx levels have been disappointing so far. No argument there. That SNY has the hidden agenda you say they have - that's about a 1 in a 100 shot - way too much liability and way too many people would have to know about it, making it way too likely the truth comes out.  Oh, wait, you've exposed the truth, right?  C'mon, that dog will not hunt, and the only reason you are even printing it is to spread some FUD.  That's clear, because you seem too intelligent to believe that theory, but even smart people come up with some far out ideas...

mannmade - you are an optimist - well, that's what you asked for, isn't it?

[mssciguy]

Jul 20, 2015 16:41:46 GMT -5 babaoriley said:

davinci,

The Rx levels have been disappointing so far. No argument there. That SNY has the hidden agenda you say they have - that's about a 1 in a 100 shot - way too much liability and way too many people would have to know about it, making it way too likely the truth comes out.  Oh, wait, you've exposed the truth, right?  C'mon, that dog will not hunt, and the only reason you are even printing it is to spread some FUD.  That's clear, because you seem too intelligent to believe that theory, but even smart people come up with some far out ideas...

mannmade - you are an optimist - well, that's what you asked for, isn't it?

Sorry about the larger font, I can't read the smaller one on my screen w/o being up close.

Big increases in insurance coverage should spike nRx starting the next few weeks.  Sanofi earnings 7/30, right?  Maybe they'll have something to say (finally) though for sure, they've done an excellent job so far --- consider the resistance from Lilly, Novo, Pfizer ... they all dropped up to a billion or more and failed, and you can bet their sexy sales reps going to dinner with the docs slip in a little poison regarding Afrezza -- but docs are ethical and though they might delay out of skepticism ("wait and see") the social media excitement about Afrezza alone will bring long-suffering patients to their doors.

[mike0475]

Buyout - no.. deals with other apps..yes.. from MANNKIND Career link


15-0012
Post Date 7/20/2015
Title Sr. VP - Business Development
City Danbury
State CT
Description
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