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Buyout
Jul 18, 2015 15:23:54 GMT -5
gwb likes this
Post by orlon on Jul 18, 2015 15:23:54 GMT -5
I know this topic has been bandied about before, but it appears that a MNKD buyout by Sanofi does not sound to crazy. I noted before that the slow rollout was a nonsense, the script counts reflect that despite numerous positive post by early adopters. It seems to me that a buyout would make sense. Al Mann has sold his companies before. What is it that makes MNKD different? I'm not convinced the DTC campaign will be productive without TV ads...I know some on this board think otherwise, but unless this product is placed before the general public to let diabetics know that a much better approach to treatment and an alternative to needles exist, they may never know. Look at the posts by those who visited their endos and found they either don't know about AFREZZA or won't write a prescription for it based on lack of knowledge. I visited my PCP Friday and he never heard of AFREZZA. The only conclusion I can come to is that Sanofi is sandbagging MNKD through slow marketing, and will buy the company before the end of the year. What say ye?
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Buyout
Jul 18, 2015 15:29:12 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by cretin11 on Jul 18, 2015 15:29:12 GMT -5
Nah, don't think so.
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Buyout
Jul 18, 2015 15:47:56 GMT -5
Post by mssciguy on Jul 18, 2015 15:47:56 GMT -5
I know this topic has been bandied about before, but it appears that a MNKD buyout by Sanofi does not sound to crazy. I noted before that the slow rollout was a nonsense, the script counts reflect that despite numerous positive post by early adopters. It seems to me that a buyout would make sense. Al Mann has sold his companies before. What is it that makes MNKD different? I'm not convinced the DTC campaign will be productive without TV ads...I know some on this board think otherwise, but unless this product is placed before the general public to let diabetics know that a much better approach to treatment and an alternative to needles exist, they may never know. Look at the posts by those who visited their endos and found they either don't know about AFREZZA or won't write a prescription for it based on lack of knowledge. I visited my PCP Friday and he never heard of AFREZZA. The only conclusion I can come to is that Sanofi is sandbagging MNKD through slow marketing, and will buy the company before the end of the year. What say ye?
Look at the launch graphically as displayed with competence on this board (and also stocktwits). Clearly we have had exponential growth even without DTC or insurance.
Like Jack Nicholson would say, "This is as good as it gets" (and that will remain true even as we continue with exponential growth).
Buyout? Nah. The pipeline is full of new applications. |
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Post by gamblerjag on Jul 18, 2015 16:01:18 GMT -5
What's the point of sandbagging..? Do you think Al is going to settle for a price based on current sales and limited advertising.. Do you think SNY thinks Al is going to sell based on current scripts? Al is not an idiot. He knows what the Company is worth. |
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Buyout
Jul 18, 2015 16:16:10 GMT -5
Post by figglebird on Jul 18, 2015 16:16:10 GMT -5
There is a corrosive need w many longs that speaks to a need to find some black and white solution to a problem that does not exist. You do not have to answer nor defend your thesis because of volatility.
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Post by mannmade on Jul 18, 2015 16:54:13 GMT -5
Don't think a buyout will occur anytime soon for the following reasons:
1.) Historically, although Al has sold many of his companies, he waits until they show enough value that he gets a substantial return on his investment. To date, since the IPO, Al has put almost 1.2B into Mannkind.
2.) He does not need the money
3.) Al believes Afrezza could be one of the most successful drugs in history
4.) There is a 5 year "Stand Still" Agreement in place within the partnership terms and would require Mannkind approval
5.) Mannkind has stated they want to become more than a technology company and produce real products from a real pipeline, suggesting that the sale would many many years away if at all
6.) Likely if anything, Sanofi might buy remaining 35% of Afrezza along with all the ownership rights but why would Sanofi want to buy the remaining 35% of Afrezza when they already have the lion's share of the profits?
7.) Lastly let's not forget the name of the company and Al's legacy... which is to help Mankind...
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Post by notamnkdmillionaire on Jul 18, 2015 17:29:44 GMT -5
I know this topic has been bandied about before, but it appears that a MNKD buyout by Sanofi does not sound to crazy. I noted before that the slow rollout was a nonsense, the script counts reflect that despite numerous positive post by early adopters. It seems to me that a buyout would make sense. Al Mann has sold his companies before. What is it that makes MNKD different? I'm not convinced the DTC campaign will be productive without TV ads...I know some on this board think otherwise, but unless this product is placed before the general public to let diabetics know that a much better approach to treatment and an alternative to needles exist, they may never know. Look at the posts by those who visited their endos and found they either don't know about AFREZZA or won't write a prescription for it based on lack of knowledge. I visited my PCP Friday and he never heard of AFREZZA. The only conclusion I can come to is that Sanofi is sandbagging MNKD through slow marketing, and will buy the company before the end of the year. What say ye? I know that many think Sanofi is sandbagging MNKD but if you really think that, then why is Mannkind sitting idly letting it happen? If that is the case, then Mannkind management is as incompetent as many think they are. While I have my issues with Management that many on here are aware of, I don't think Sanofi has some sinister plan of screwing over Mannkind. Sanofi has already forked over more than 200 million to Mannkind and many millions more for all the work to get Afrezza to market. Doesn't really make sense that they'd waste all that just to sandbag Mannkind and drug that they realize has the potential to make them billions. What I do think is happening is something none of us know about but love to speculate about. Is Sanofi carefully laying the groundwork to minimize the issues that plagued Exubera and the issues that currently cloud inhaled insulin? Yes, I think that is what they are doing. Will they be successful? Time will tell. This isn't Al's first rodeo and we know from his own words that he is learned from his first deal many decades ago not to let someone else screw him over again and to leave money on the table. Sanofi is no slouch when it comes to marketing but I think they understood that Afrezza wasn't just going to waltz in and win doctors and insurance company's heart at first sight. I have no idea if investors will be rewarded but I don't believe that Al signed up with Sanofi to get screwed. The master plan will eventually unveil itself. I'd love for it to happen sooner rather than later but this is a marathon and there is no better running partner to endure the distance than Sanofi. |
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Buyout
Jul 18, 2015 17:32:55 GMT -5
Post by dreamboatcruise on Jul 18, 2015 17:32:55 GMT -5
I know this topic has been bandied about before, but it appears that a MNKD buyout by Sanofi does not sound to crazy. I noted before that the slow rollout was a nonsense, the script counts reflect that despite numerous positive post by early adopters. It seems to me that a buyout would make sense. Al Mann has sold his companies before. What is it that makes MNKD different? I'm not convinced the DTC campaign will be productive without TV ads...I know some on this board think otherwise, but unless this product is placed before the general public to let diabetics know that a much better approach to treatment and an alternative to needles exist, they may never know. Look at the posts by those who visited their endos and found they either don't know about AFREZZA or won't write a prescription for it based on lack of knowledge. I visited my PCP Friday and he never heard of AFREZZA. The only conclusion I can come to is that Sanofi is sandbagging MNKD through slow marketing, and will buy the company before the end of the year. What say ye? Seems highly unlikely... IMHO. Al has indicated that he is not looking to sell. MNKD is reviving their drug pipeline and seem to indicate that it is a pretty deep pipeline with one new drug program ramping up every 6 months for some time. I'm of the belief that Al put his name on the company he wanted as part of his permanent legacy, not another company merged into a big pharma. Even if that isn't the case, I'm sure that Sanofi cannot currently justify to their investors the type of money that Al would demand for MNKD. Al knows how much MNKD is worth which is considerably more than reflected in the stock price. |
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Buyout
Jul 18, 2015 19:02:40 GMT -5
gwb likes this
Post by od on Jul 18, 2015 19:02:40 GMT -5
I know this topic has been bandied about before, but it appears that a MNKD buyout by Sanofi does not sound to crazy. I noted before that the slow rollout was a nonsense, the script counts reflect that despite numerous positive post by early adopters. It seems to me that a buyout would make sense. Al Mann has sold his companies before. What is it that makes MNKD different? I'm not convinced the DTC campaign will be productive without TV ads...I know some on this board think otherwise, but unless this product is placed before the general public to let diabetics know that a much better approach to treatment and an alternative to needles exist, they may never know. Look at the posts by those who visited their endos and found they either don't know about AFREZZA or won't write a prescription for it based on lack of knowledge. I visited my PCP Friday and he never heard of AFREZZA. The only conclusion I can come to is that Sanofi is sandbagging MNKD through slow marketing, and will buy the company before the end of the year. What say ye?
Look at the launch graphically as displayed with competence on this board (and also stocktwits). Clearly we have had exponential growth even without DTC or insurance.
Like Jack Nicholson would say, "This is as good as it gets" (and that will remain true even as we continue with exponential growth).
Buyout? Nah. The pipeline is full of new applications.I am as ardent a believer that Afrezza will be a commercial success as anyone on this board. I also believe in SNY and their launch strategy. But 'exponential growth'? Using IMS NRx data from week 1 through July 3 (July 10 has not been posted here yet), it is not yet exponential ; TRx barely made it. |
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Post by babaoriley on Jul 19, 2015 1:25:32 GMT -5
"The only conclusion I can come to is that Sanofi is sandbagging MNKD through slow marketing, and will buy the company before the end of the year. What say ye?"
orlon, the first thing I'll say is if that is the only conclusion you can come to, then you need to let your imagination run just a bit more free! C'mon, there are many conclusions one can come to, like, perhaps Sanofi entered into the deal in good faith.
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Post by mssciguy on Jul 19, 2015 5:50:47 GMT -5
This kind of post floods the ymb daily.... Facts are that 12 u cartridge had to be approved and the line certified, and also that Tier II/preferred coverage and physician education was required prior to any DTC.
Look at the launch graphically as displayed with competence on this board (and also stocktwits). Clearly we have had exponential growth even without DTC or insurance.
Like Jack Nicholson would say, "This is as good as it gets" (and that will remain true even as we continue with exponential growth).
Buyout? Nah. The pipeline is full of new applications. I am as ardent a believer that Afrezza will be a commercial success as anyone on this board. I also believe in SNY and their launch strategy. But 'exponential growth'? Using IMS NRx data from week 1 through July 3 (July 10 has not been posted here yet), it is not yet exponential ; TRx barely made it. Yes, exponential growth. Please see the charts area |
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Buyout
Jul 19, 2015 9:24:35 GMT -5
Post by od on Jul 19, 2015 9:24:35 GMT -5
I am as ardent a believer that Afrezza will be a commercial success as anyone on this board. I also believe in SNY and their launch strategy. But 'exponential growth'? Using IMS NRx data from week 1 through July 3 (July 10 has not been posted here yet), it is not yet exponential ; TRx barely made it. Yes, exponential growth. Please see the charts area I am not responding to engage. I encourage difference of opinions. I believe if 'exponential' is used, it should be qualified. IMS data week one NRx - 19. 19 x 19 = 361. IMS data week 23 (July 3) - 245. NRx are not exponential. Yes, TRx was exponential from week one to week 22 (June 26). Exponential growth to extoll will require more providers prescribing Afrezza to more patients. It will happen. |
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Buyout
Jul 19, 2015 9:29:26 GMT -5
Post by yossarian on Jul 19, 2015 9:29:26 GMT -5
If you remember Sanofi has a right of first refusal should any entity make a buyout proposal for Mannkind. Also Dr. Mann controls enough shares that he effectively has a veto power. Finally why should Sanofi buyout Mannkind now. It gets 65% of the profits and Technosphere is still unproven as a delivery system for other drugs. It might as well wait. What does it have to lose by waiting. Very little that I can see.
A little off point, but also remember for accounting reasons the milestone payments are currently listed as liabilities. So MNKD's liabilities as a practical matter are overstated by the amount of all milestone payments but the first one, which I think was booked as income though not positive on that. Similar it's assets are understated by the amount of the milestone payments. Everyone seems to forget that.
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Post by mssciguy on Jul 19, 2015 10:05:35 GMT -5
Yes, exponential growth. Please see the charts area I am not responding to engage. I encourage difference of opinions. I believe if 'exponential' is used, it should be qualified. IMS data week one NRx - 19. 19 x 19 = 361. IMS data week 23 (July 3) - 245. NRx are not exponential. Yes, TRx was exponential from week one to week 22 (June 26). Exponential growth to extoll will require more providers prescribing Afrezza to more patients. It will happen. Even 10-20% average weekly growth is exponential. Maybe not what you think of as exponential but do the math. You will get blockbuster status within a year like this! That said, yes, we are "near the origin" and exponentials often seem very linear near the origin. This is very frequently a topic of study in graduate school: Behavior near the origin. Rarely what it seems. |
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Post by Chris-C on Jul 19, 2015 11:29:56 GMT -5
Mnkdmillionaire:
Best quote of the week, IMO! Nicely stated.
Chris C
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