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Post by liane on Jul 31, 2015 21:03:19 GMT -5
Hey db,
Great minds think alike!
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Post by jpg on Jul 31, 2015 21:03:42 GMT -5
Maybe I just want to see this with rose coloured glasses but the selective nature of what their doing seems to show some control over what they are doing and that they expect the conversion to be only partial (it will be nil from what I can tell is happening so far though).
Strange deal though. I'm surprised so many are left guessing about this.
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Post by tbone on Jul 31, 2015 23:44:06 GMT -5
Regarding the stock for note, at this point we could have none converted, leaving 30% of the $60 M to be paid by MNKD by Aug 15? We could quite easily have no shares at all converted. I've been thinking noteholders would have shorted earlier with the intention of using converted shares to cover but then it just kicked into my brain that all they have to do is buy back the shares on the open market at prices even lower than the conversion price - which has now been true for 3 straight days. If prices stay this low they could quite easily not convert any shares at all. That is a mixed blessing in that MNKD still has to pay cash for the notes on 8/15 but at least they get the 9 million shares back and suffer zero dilution. I am starting to think that is the end game for the noteholders - they get to snag bargain shares at LOWER than conversion price PLUS their cash back and MNKD gets stiffed with no conversions. If by some miracle the price can bounce above the floor they will convert, otherwise it's probably a safe bet they will play the buy the open market game to cover any shorted shares. Win-win for the sharks. What a world. This is how I see it. Why be a buyer at 4.40 ish through conversion? I don't see any reason any note holders would have converted. |
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Post by mannmade on Aug 1, 2015 0:18:43 GMT -5
I guess the real question for me, is this the start of an uptrend however slow and methodical it might be from here...? Meaning does anyone think we will revisit these lows once the resolution to this matter is finalized. I am looking at buying more as I bought some shares at 4.28 today. I realize it may godown more until this matter is resolved, and so have left funds for more purchases, but after this downward cycle is though I am hoping/thinking (yes I know hope is not a strategy) we should begin to see a slight but consistent uptick in scripts, and even though we are likely to be prey for the shorts a while longer, it will be with a higher floor with each future trap they set.
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Post by babaoriley on Aug 1, 2015 1:58:50 GMT -5
A bunch of fascinating posts on this subject, which as Tinkerbell and mannmade pointed out way earlier, will be old news by August 16! I really don't think it's all that material to the future of the company, but uncertainty is one of the things that is negative for any stock, so.... glad it's to be certain by August 15. This also served as a lightning rod for traders, shorts, etc., and obviously those here that love to analyze stuff. I do, too, but I think we have our arms pretty much around this. It will be interesting to see if MNKD lowers the floor, allowing AF to do some more whoopin' and hollerin'. As if that's not reason enough not to budge.
Not that it will happen, but, as Brian Wilson might have said, "wouldn't it be nice if" SNY bought a convertible bond to refi this mess? That would kill a few birds!
EoD, thanks for interacting with Matt and sharing!!
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Post by EveningOfTheDay on Aug 1, 2015 3:08:20 GMT -5
EoD, thanks for interacting with Matt and sharing!! Baba. Over the last year I have benefited greatly from information posted here by many of the members engaging in productive discussions on the events afflicting and affecting Mannkind. At the risk of sounding exceedingly corny I will say that this board truly does epitomize the virtues of sharing for the profit of many and I am just happy to be able to contribute my two cents. |
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Tinkerbell
Researcher
Watcher of the Skies
Posts: 143
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Post by Tinkerbell on Aug 1, 2015 11:07:19 GMT -5
I think a SNY convertible bond (if it's even on the table) would be an exceedingly good option for the future of both companies and most importantly for diabetics. It accomplishes two very critical things in one fell swoop: 1) it assures diabetics around the world that Afrezza will make it to them (hopefully sooner than later) and 2) it puts short interest players on notice that betting against MNKD would be likened to betting against SNY as a bondholder. Not a good idea.
Afrezza is just getting started and is seeing a steady rise in prescriptions. In my view, this will continue upwards as MDs see first hand the impact of post prandial glucose control on the HbA1C results of their patients. Then, as other countries approve Afrezza, the trend can only continue up - where else can it go?
Obviously, we don't know what management of MNKD and SNY discuss behind closed doors though from what I've seen, SNY collaborations tend to support their 'underdog' partners (and typically to their mutual benefit). I can only surmise (and hope) that SNY sees MNKD (esp. with Al Mann receiving awards for his lifetime of humanitarian/medical advancement efforts) as a good partner to support for future. Personally, I don't know of a single Pharma company that would launch an effort to destroy what he's built or tear it down to keep Afrezza from patients. Which company would do that to a 90 year old MD? Really?
Also, at a recent SNY conference call, some have suggested that SNY intentionally highlighted some of their other diabetes drugs in their pipeline and excluded mention of Afrezza primarily because they'd love to see Afrezza 'gone' from the market.
Sorry, but that would insinuate that Dr. Brandicourt had no interest whatsoever in providing diabetics with every single option available to keep their diabetes under control. What kind of picture does that paint of Dr. Brandicourt and the Hippocratic Oath he took years ago? This is a patently false suggestion only because believe it or not, 99.9% of MD executives at Drug Companies have scruples - yes they do - they don't leave their oath at the door because they switch industries. Why? Because if they don't do the right thing, the practicing medical community with make their life a serious hell.
Finally, the licensing agreement between both parties is well understood and there is no need for SNY to mention it again and again ad nauseum. We wait for sales of Afrezza to impact SNY's and MNKD's bottom line. There's nothing more to say on the partnership.
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Post by kc on Aug 1, 2015 12:54:31 GMT -5
Tink!
Welcome to the jungle. I appreciate your views as you're in my opinion 100% on target. Sanofi has proven to be a great partner to an "underdog partner" They have proven that many times over as one only has to look at the relationship with Regeneron or Alnylam.
Having a strong collaborative partner keeps the Sanofi pipeline filled with new products to market. Sanofi is a marketing behemoth. Most drug companies can spend millions and billions of dollars on research and development of new drugs that never make it to market. What Sanofi has learned is to find a company like Regeneron who was struggling and cash poor but with great R & D and a pipeline of potential new drugs and provide them the last mile delivery. Regeneron had great potential but not the ability to get the to finish line without Sanofi.
MannKind is in that same situation. Is Sanofi the perfect partner? I think so as they know the potential of Afrezza to the diabetic marketplace. Afrezza gives them another piece of the pie. Afrezza is a tool that most of the other pharma need in their marketing tool box and Sanofi has locked it up.
Will it be a winner? Let's hope so. Sanofi is counting on it being a winner. Maybe not in 2015 or 2016 but the potential is there in future years. Sanofi has developed a diversified pipeline of drugs in the diabetes marketplace that many of their competitors are afraid of as we see the competitors DTC marketing everyday pushing their products. Big Pharma knows that Sanofi will get it right with Afrezza. We just have to be patient for that to happen.
Obviously, we don't know what management of MNKD and SNY discuss behind closed doors though from what I've seen, SNY collaborations tend to support their 'underdog' partners (and typically to their mutual benefit). I can only surmise (and hope) that SNY sees MNKD (esp. with Al Mann receiving awards for his lifetime of humanitarian/medical advancement efforts) as a good partner to support for future. Personally, I don't know of a single Pharma company that would launch an effort to destroy what he's built or tear it down to keep Afrezza from patients. Which company would do that to a 90 year old MD? Really? Also, at a recent SNY conference call, some have suggested that SNY intentionally highlighted some of their other diabetes drugs in their pipeline and excluded mention of Afrezza primarily because they'd love to see Afrezza 'gone' from the market. Sorry, but that would insinuate that Dr. Brandicourt had no interest whatsoever in providing diabetics with every single option available to keep their diabetes under control. What kind of picture does that paint of Dr. Brandicourt and the Hippocratic Oath he took years ago? This is a patently false suggestion only because believe it or not, 99.9% of MD executives at Drug Companies have scruples - yes they do - they don't leave their oath at the door because they switch industries. Why? Because if they don't do the right thing, the practicing medical community with make their life a serious hell. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 1, 2015 13:07:48 GMT -5
Tinkerbell... for all of Al's amazing accomplishments in medical field, his education is math and physics. He's not an MD... merely a genius.
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Tinkerbell
Researcher
Watcher of the Skies
Posts: 143
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Post by Tinkerbell on Aug 1, 2015 14:11:01 GMT -5
I stand corrected on the MD statement - indeed Al Mann is not an MD though perhaps one day they'll bestow an honorary MD degree on him for his contributions to the medical field in general. Next up is his investment in a company to help the blind see. Anyway, I appreciate the correction - thank you.
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Post by mnholdem on Aug 1, 2015 15:00:19 GMT -5
Mann received his B.S. and M.S. in physics from the University of California, Los Angeles, doing graduate work in nuclear and mathematical physics. Mann holds honorary doctorate degrees from the University of Southern California, The Johns Hopkins University, Western University of Health Sciences, and the Technion – Israel Institute of Technology. link |
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Post by robsacher on Aug 1, 2015 22:53:15 GMT -5
Interesting discussion in this thread.
I think this conversion story has just about run its course. We may see another rise off the floor as that's the method traders use to pick up additional shares. Dump/Pump/Dump/Pump…
So sometime between August 10th and August 20th we get a new p/s upswing. However, it will be difficult for traders to pump MannKind up if sales don't pick up but I guess they will find another reason to suddenly "like" the company at that time.
Remember how CNBC and Cramer suddenly liked MannKind a couple of weeks ago immediately before this most recent short raid? They pumped on a Thursday and the p/s rose almost 5%. Then dumped on Friday and Monday. And just about everyday for most of the last eight trading days.
The rise will come before the next shorting raid which will be when we start to see stories planted about how the Sanofi DTC is a failure.
I would think those stories might come in the autumn, definitely before the end of the year, most likely around the next earnings conference call or as much as a week or two before it. So, for what my two cents is worth, that date will be somewhere between October 15th and Halloween.
MannKind will have to start putting some numbers on the board in 2016.
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Post by kc on Aug 11, 2015 15:52:10 GMT -5
Will we see a new 8-K filed with the completion of the Stock and Note agreement that ended today at the close of business? I would assume so?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Aug 12, 2015 1:01:10 GMT -5
With stock for notes exchange period over, regardless of the number of notes exchanged, the 9 million shares lent will be returned within a few months. Those shorted shares will need to be purchased in the open market. This game is finally over!
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Post by kc on Aug 12, 2015 9:49:44 GMT -5
John where did you read that it would take a few months to return the 9 million shares. Are they company shares (treasury stock) or owned personally by Al Mann or his trust? I am unclear with out researching this.
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