|
|
Post by savzak on Jul 29, 2015 9:10:38 GMT -5
I don't think I have much of a problem with what they did. The dilution is minimal, 3% to 4% at most. The price down 7% is clearly an over reaction, especially when you consider that an unknown is now resolved. I do have two big concerns about the way this happened though.
First and most concerning, is reconciling this with Matt's repeated "no dilution" comments. Not good.
Second, it's obvious to me that this information should have been released last night so that shareholders (and the market) could digest it. Instead, we're left to react in part on emotion, without carefully considering the release, knowing that manipulators have the upper hand because the timing gives them the advantage.
|
|
|
|
Post by greg on Jul 29, 2015 9:12:27 GMT -5
Typical market overreaction...
My assessment is as follows: 1. $15.4 million of the debt will be paid off in cash. 2. Maturity of $27.7 million is extended for three years. and 3. $56.9 million will convert into equity, probably at a conversion price lower than $6.80.
I'm happy with the first part. The second part is a neutral. I'm not happy with the third part, but it's a very minor negative. The conversion price will be lower than the hoped for $6.80, but the difference in the number of shares being issued is almost negligible, relative to what it would've been in the best case scenario.
Also, since the $100 million note will cease to exist by August 15th, B of A will soon have to return the nine million shares. So, the overall number of shares outstanding will stay little changed.
|
|
|
|
Post by ezrasfund on Jul 29, 2015 9:13:22 GMT -5
All have to do is keep pps above $10 until Aug. 11- only 5.5m dilution. If shorts keep stock at $2 for more then 10 days, 23m. Something to fight over. So AF was correct about debt and dilution? Say it ain't so Matt, say it ain't so... There is a "floor price", and it is probably more than $2. The big question is what is happening with the 9 million shares held as collateral for the old loan? Is MNKD essentially rolling over the loan on similar terms, and paying off about $15.4 million to those who wouldn't agree to the new terms? |
|
|
|
Post by jpg on Jul 29, 2015 9:13:43 GMT -5
I don't get the Board 'panic'?
This deal is fine by me.
Traders are playing with our shares while FUD spammers work various boards and that is frustrating but very temporary and in the end meaningless.
|
|
|
|
Post by greg on Jul 29, 2015 9:16:47 GMT -5
All have to do is keep pps above $10 until Aug. 11- only 5.5m dilution. If shorts keep stock at $2 for more then 10 days, 23m. Something to fight over. So AF was correct about debt and dilution? Say it ain't so Matt, say it ain't so... There is a floor of around $4.85 on the conversion price. Please read the press release more carefully. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2015 9:17:33 GMT -5
When a blockbuster comes on the market it usually comes with much fanfare. TV ads, radio, newspaper, web, social media. Are we really running the show like it is a blockbuster? No!! How come? Maybe it is not a blockbuster and just a niche product. I've have lost a ton on this stock and I cannot stand the constant singing of Annie. Tomorrow, tomorrow.... No seasoned pharma marketing exec would run a TV ad at this point for Afrezza. The fact that you mention this in your post indicates you have little if any knowledge of the Rx industry. Why the hell would you ever invest in a risky stock in an industry for which you have little knowledge? Blockbusters do not come to the market as doing so implies $1B in sales prior to launch which as you know is not possible. Ramp up after launch to $1B yes but prior to no. Spend some time thinking about all the impediments to market acceptance of Afrezza and draw out a time line and a few bullet points as to how much time, labor and $$ is needed to address these things and then try to figure out how to optimize promotional spending in terms if investment, timing and ROI. For simplicity sake, assume no other identical or near identical product is available for the next 5 years and by doing so, it will make your analysis a bit simpler. |
|
|
|
Post by ripano on Jul 29, 2015 9:18:43 GMT -5
Exactly. MNKD bought time to resolve this in 2018 when they will have huge cash reserves. This is Good. Not Bad news.
|
|
|
|
Post by joeypotsandpans on Jul 29, 2015 9:22:00 GMT -5
When a blockbuster comes on the market it usually comes with much fanfare. TV ads, radio, newspaper, web, social media. Are we really running the show like it is a blockbuster? No!! How come? Maybe it is not a blockbuster and just a niche product. I've have lost a ton on this stock and I cannot stand the constant singing of Annie. Tomorrow, tomorrow.... You can end the "pain and suffering" at any time...there are buyers out there that want/NEED approx 112mill sh. |
|
|
|
Post by dstevenson on Jul 29, 2015 9:27:10 GMT -5
So I am reading this is good because it's now extended out. Could make sense since they need cash to flush the pipeline.
I just don't understand the new terms
|
|
|
|
Post by bioexec25 on Jul 29, 2015 9:28:24 GMT -5
I don't get the Board 'panic'? This deal is fine by me. Traders are playing with our shares while FUD spammers work various boards and that is frustrating but very temporary and in the end meaningless. Yep well I'm also okay with the transaction overall, albeit come on Matt. Not okay with the trading pattern Friday (down .37 cents) and Monday (down .26 cents) as if everyone but retail investors knew about the deal and probable market reaction (again). |
|
|
|
Post by greg on Jul 29, 2015 9:28:50 GMT -5
Exactly. MNKD bought time to resolve this in 2018 when they will have huge cash reserves. This is Good. Not Bad news. The debt issue is actually resolved within a month. Only $27.7 million of the debt carries forward to 2018. the balance is either paid off in cash or converted into equity. And who cares about $27.7 million. |
|
|
|
Post by dannykatz on Jul 29, 2015 9:31:23 GMT -5
So this isn't good news or bad news. Definitely doesn't warrant the huge drop, but us longs are used to this by now. Must say, holding this stock has made me a more seasoned investor in under a year. The good is that the deadline is extended, bad news is the equity payment, which is particularly shocking because matt always said he would avoid this at all costs. Everyone needs to pay close attention to sanofis earnings tomorrow, hopefully there is some good news in there.
|
|
|
|
Post by thsloppy on Jul 29, 2015 9:32:06 GMT -5
The point is not how " minimal". The point is Matt flat out destroyed whatever credibility he has left. He was asked on multiple occasions and confidently stated the multiple options at his disposal while reiterating no dilution. Looked me right in the eye at the shareholder meeting. How can we believe anything that comes out of their mouths? So happy I figured out trading this is more profitable than holding it.
|
|
|
|
Post by newmnkdinvestor on Jul 29, 2015 9:37:42 GMT -5
I feel like to many longs are buying into a lot of the misinformed HYPE out there. They were expecting a rocket launch pop. Longs need to temper their expectations. Yes, everyone wants their 500% return right now but thats not happening. Stay the course as we have years to go yet.
|
|
|
|
Post by tayl5 on Jul 29, 2015 9:37:44 GMT -5
Exactly. MNKD bought time to resolve this in 2018 when they will have huge cash reserves. This is Good. Not Bad news. One way to look at this is, which is more important to the company now, conserving cash or avoiding the appearance of dilution? The restricted stock will not be in play. You can look at it as being similar to the call on the company's assets that a bond makes except we don't have to pay interest. I'm happy to make that trade. |
|
