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Post by stevil on Aug 2, 2015 0:33:53 GMT -5
Just wondering what the sentiment is on the board regarding the June spike in share price on extremely high volume. What was that?
I read various theories on ymb but none of them made sense. Did it just seem like an easy target with the dtc announcement likely?
Is it Matts fault for killing momentum by announcing we're not there yet?
I don't understand why we rose to mid 7 from low 3 in a matter of a couple months just to fall back again. It seems to me with dtc kicking off that shorts would want to hand the power back over to the longs. How much money is to be made at this price compared to the risk of the lid blowing off with a material event as was posed earlier?
anyone have insight?
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Post by babaoriley on Aug 2, 2015 1:55:26 GMT -5
For some reason, significant short interest covering went on for a few days; no one is sure why, or even if, but that's the way I look at it, and I'm right at least 10% of the time. I doubt dtc scares shorts much. A big technosphere might, but who knows if that's coming soon.
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Post by dg1111 on Aug 2, 2015 7:48:13 GMT -5
This is the reason I am anxious to see institutional holdings when those are updated. Someone was buying a lot of shares. If I understand correctly, if anybody crossed 5% ownership, they would have already had to submit a 13g form, so that likely didn't happen.
Short interest did decrease during that time but not enough to explain the volume.
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Post by sportsrancho on Aug 2, 2015 8:51:40 GMT -5
Just wondering what the sentiment is on the board regarding the June spike in share price on extremely high volume. What was that? I read various theories on ymb but none of them made sense. Did it just seem like an easy target with the dtc announcement likely? Is it Matts fault for killing momentum by announcing we're not there yet? I don't understand why we rose to mid 7 from low 3 in a matter of a couple months just to fall back again. It seems to me with dtc kicking off that shorts would want to hand the power back over to the longs. How much money is to be made at this price compared to the risk of the lid blowing off with a material event as was posed earlier? anyone have insight? I haven't been trading all that long but with every other stock I've been in, 9 out of ten times it was a prelude of good things to come. A leak or rumor? Some say it was the upgrade we got? It's been a a while now though. The way the stock is acting now if I was trading it I wouldn't be in it. But MNKD is a hold for the long haul for me. |
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Post by mnholdem on Aug 2, 2015 9:17:17 GMT -5
The Jeffries analyst's published survey of physicians, which prompted Mr. Deepak to issue a $37 price target for 2017 is, I believe, what triggered the rally. Subsequent weekly script reports and AF hit pieces put out the fire.
Until Afrezza sales figures back up prognostications, volatility will prevail with the stock market bias to the downside and a tendency to believe bad news over good. Good news may continue to trigger these spikes, but robust and sustained sales will be needed to provide the wind to these sails.
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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Aug 2, 2015 9:40:25 GMT -5
The Jeffries analyst's published survey of physicians, which prompted Mr. Deepak to issue a $37 price target for 2017 is, I believe, what triggered the rally. Subsequent weekly script reports and AF hit pieces put out the fire. Until Afrezza sales figures back up prognostications, volatility will prevail with the stock market bias to the downside and a tendency to believe bad news over good. Good news may continue to trigger these spikes, but robust and sustained sales will be needed to provide the wind to these sails. I can hardly wait for that one Friday where the sales numbers surprise everyone to the upside. To be honest, I thought we would have had that Friday by now. I have readjusted my thinking to allow another 6 months for that to happen. I just truly don't know when sales will gain traction. |
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Post by dudley on Aug 2, 2015 16:16:42 GMT -5
Combination of events - as mnholdem pointed out Jeffries was prominent. Generally way oversold and due for a bounce technically another. ADA was a major factor - big booth featuring Afrezza, packed house at the education session. Eye-popping A1c numbers showing up on Twitter, Sam's blog etc. All created a surge in short term demand for shares and the price rose accordingly.
As always though the day-to-day action is mainly a function of Market Makers activity. Remember EVERY share you buy or sell is going through a MM somewhere. When a share is sold that is being bought by a MM, NOT Susie in Massachusetts. When you buy a share it is coming out of some MM's inventory. Sure, demand and supply have something to do with it - actual value of the underlying company has very little to do with it. MNKD volume usually represents 1-2% of actual shares outstanding. That means most of the days many of us are fixated upon - 98% of shares aren't even involved. A very tiny % of actual shares outstanding sets the "market" cap for the entire company.
MM's can see all order flow and react accordingly - head fake to create a sense of - "Wow, the stock is taking off, I need to get in NOW" then yank the price back with a few small trades. They can naked short anytime required to "maintain an orderly market" thus quashing rallies. They can and do (I have personally witnessed this many times with various stocks) move the stock down dramatically on tiny trades. I've seen a single 100 share block move the price down a dime or more. MM's will walk the price down on these small trades to capture stop losses then push the price back up again. All legal, all part of the rigged game.
Many MM's also happen to be brokerage houses so they can do sweetheart deals with clients - that's why you see huge blocks of shares trade without moving the price a single cent. It isn't the market price at all, it is the price they agreed to move that block of shares. Try buying those shares yourself and you would be paying a lot more as they drive the price up to make you chase it.
It's just the way it works. The only way I know how to beat it is either trade it anytime you have a profit on a block of shares or hold for the long term and don't sweat the interim moves. I have a long term block of shares and also trade blocks whenever the opportunity arises. I do NOT hold those trading shares once I get a profit, I sell immediately. If it keeps going up I have the long term block so that's great. If it pulls back again I buy more trading shares, but NEVER on margin. I've learned the hard way just because a stock is crazy cheap it can't get still crazy cheaper. MM's and shorts smell blood and pile on. Using margin with a stock this unpredictable is almost inviting yourself to a butt-kicking party and it is your butt getting kicked.
The point of this, which I have posted before, is the price of the stock on any given day is completely disassociated from the actual value of the company, it is just the MM's (or in the case of NYSE the specialists) playing their endless games, much of it anymore automated. Ebb and flow, ebb and flow. Caveat emptor.
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Post by robsacher on Aug 2, 2015 16:28:21 GMT -5
My view is that MannKind is heavily traded by those who make profits by pumping and dumping the stock through many cycles of up/down/up/down movement. It only takes $5 million dollars to move the stock about 10% in any direction in a ten minute time frame. If a pump or dump is covered by appropriate propaganda, something to make others believe that there is sufficient energy going to now move the price per share in the appropriate direction, then the pump or dump begins. Once, the pump or dump begins, others jump on board sensing they have a profit making opportunity available. Eventually, the cycle comes to an end. If it was a pump, the pumpers sell off their shares. If it was a dump, then the dumpers now buy back in. The classic price per share for pumping MNKD has been to buy in around $5 and sell somewhere between $6 and $6.45. But this most recent dump happened around $5.75, a lower price. I expect the buy in might be around $4, maybe a bit lower. My feeling that the pump and dump numbers may be somewhat lower now is based on my view that there may not be adequate positive news coming before next year to provide enough cover and fuel for a pump. But, I believe that the pumpers will find something positive, no matter how inconsequential, to keep the cycle going. Check out the cycles on this graph. I count 6 times in the last two years that the stock moved between $5 and $6. finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MNKD+Interactive#{"range":"2y","allowChartStacking":true} This pump and dump cycle will continue and will only end if MannKind either starts to garner some very reasonable market share in 2016 or goes bankrupt, and I highly doubt bankruptcy will be the case. Afrezza is just too good. In addition, if you look at the chart, you'll see that MNKD is now trading at a price per share very near the bottom of all previous cycles. In fact, it has only traded lower for very brief moments, twice. So, either the new pump and dump high/low numbers will be in a lower p/s cycle, say between $4 and $5 or even $3.50 and $4.75, or we are at the bottom and should see a new pump happening very soon. Last, if there is not really any worthy new marketable news relating to MannKind, pumps can often simply be predicated upon analyst "oversold" recommendations to buy based on previous up/down charted cycles. And, if I were shorting MNKD, now at $4.29, I would be returning my shares if I do not see continued downward pressure on the p/s at any point this week, especially Monday morning. This is an excellent time to add shares to your position or to buy in if you have been waiting for a better price. |
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Post by dudley on Aug 2, 2015 16:41:05 GMT -5
My view is that MannKind is heavily traded by those who make profits by pumping and dumping the stock through many cycles of up/down/up/down movement. It only takes $5 million dollars to move the stock about 10% in any direction in a ten minute time frame. If a pump or dump is covered by appropriate propaganda, something to make others believe that there is sufficient energy going to now move the price per share in the appropriate direction, then the pump or dump begins. Once, the pump or dump begins, others jump on board sensing they have a profit making opportunity available. Eventually, the cycle comes to an end. If it was a pump, the pumpers sell off their shares. If it was a dump, then the dumpers now buy back in. The classic price per share for pumping MNKD has been to buy in around $5 and sell somewhere between $6 and $6.45. But this most recent dump happened around $5.75, a lower price. I expect the buy in might be around $4, maybe a bit lower. My feeling that the pump and dump numbers may be somewhat lower now is based on my view that there may not be adequate positive news coming before next year to provide enough cover and fuel for a pump. But, I believe that the pumpers will find something positive, no matter how inconsequential, to keep the cycle going. Check out the cycles on this graph. I count 6 times in the last two years that the stock moved between $5 and $6. finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MNKD+Interactive#{"range":"2y","allowChartStacking":true} This pump and dump cycle will continue and will only end if MannKind either starts to garner some very reasonable market share in 2016 or goes bankrupt, which I highly doubt will be the case. Rob, you are definitely correct and the MM's / brokerages etc. are quite happy to play the game to their benefit and your detriment. This same cycle is true for virtually the entire universe of stocks with rare exceptions. Here is a fun and almost infallible exercise: Pick ANY stock at random and check out the % differential between the 52 week high and 52 week low of the stock. Almost without fail you will see there is a 50% spread between those two. Again, this is true for the entire universe of stocks. Analysts put out a buy and the stock surges. Later they downgrade and the stock plummets. Option expiration, momentum (3D stocks classic - hotter than hot last year now NOBODY wants to own them), cyclical "flavor of the month" mentality. Meanwhile the underlying companies are just doing their thing, running the business best they can. Same company, same management, same products, same customers, same assets - yet the stock price moves 50% up and down, year in and year out. Amazing. |
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Post by dudley on Aug 3, 2015 11:10:08 GMT -5
Combination of events - as mnholdem pointed out Jeffries was prominent. Generally way oversold and due for a bounce technically another. ADA was a major factor - big booth featuring Afrezza, packed house at the education session. Eye-popping A1c numbers showing up on Twitter, Sam's blog etc. All created a surge in short term demand for shares and the price rose accordingly. As always though the day-to-day action is mainly a function of Market Makers activity. Remember EVERY share you buy or sell is going through a MM somewhere. When a share is sold that is being bought by a MM, NOT Susie in Massachusetts. When you buy a share it is coming out of some MM's inventory. Sure, demand and supply have something to do with it - actual value of the underlying company has very little to do with it. MNKD volume usually represents 1-2% of actual shares outstanding. That means most of the days many of us are fixated upon - 98% of shares aren't even involved. A very tiny % of actual shares outstanding sets the "market" cap for the entire company. MM's can see all order flow and react accordingly - head fake to create a sense of - "Wow, the stock is taking off, I need to get in NOW" then yank the price back with a few small trades. They can naked short anytime required to "maintain an orderly market" thus quashing rallies. They can and do (I have personally witnessed this many times with various stocks) move the stock down dramatically on tiny trades. I've seen a single 100 share block move the price down a dime or more. MM's will walk the price down on these small trades to capture stop losses then push the price back up again. All legal, all part of the rigged game. Many MM's also happen to be brokerage houses so they can do sweetheart deals with clients - that's why you see huge blocks of shares trade without moving the price a single cent. It isn't the market price at all, it is the price they agreed to move that block of shares. Try buying those shares yourself and you would be paying a lot more as they drive the price up to make you chase it. It's just the way it works. The only way I know how to beat it is either trade it anytime you have a profit on a block of shares or hold for the long term and don't sweat the interim moves. I have a long term block of shares and also trade blocks whenever the opportunity arises. I do NOT hold those trading shares once I get a profit, I sell immediately. If it keeps going up I have the long term block so that's great. If it pulls back again I buy more trading shares, but NEVER on margin. I've learned the hard way just because a stock is crazy cheap it can't get still crazy cheaper. MM's and shorts smell blood and pile on. Using margin with a stock this unpredictable is almost inviting yourself to a butt-kicking party and it is your butt getting kicked. The point of this, which I have posted before, is the price of the stock on any given day is completely disassociated from the actual value of the company, it is just the MM's (or in the case of NYSE the specialists) playing their endless games, much of it anymore automated. Ebb and flow, ebb and flow. Caveat emptor. Anyone wanting to see an actual example of this check out this link to Nasdaq.com and ARCW - another stock I own and like a lot at these prices. At the 10:05 mark they took it from $4.15 to $3.91 on one single trade of 100 shares.
MNKD has a higher trading volume so it is harder to move the stock like that but the point is to illustrate that the market makers have enormous control over the price of any stock on a day-to-day basis. MNKD is obviously going to stay in this below-floor range this week - day 4 out of 10 now with no catalysts to move the stock up.
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Post by robsacher on Aug 3, 2015 13:09:21 GMT -5
dudley,
Thank you for your points of information. I am so focused on MNKD, I did not even think about the macro aspects of the market. But, it all makes sense. I have learned much in the last three years. Now, I know that 'noise' is simply a design element employed by those who have deep pockets and a financial agenda.
RS
PS: And yes, market makers only want action. I have seen them open MNKD down many points based on nothing. Can't help wonder who lines some of their pockets...
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Post by babaoriley on Aug 3, 2015 16:42:34 GMT -5
"I can hardly wait for that one Friday where the sales numbers surprise everyone to the upside." CCI, I guarantee you one thing, if you could hold your breath that long, no doc would require you to take a spirometry test prior to prescribing Afrezza.  |
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Post by mssciguy on Aug 3, 2015 17:30:21 GMT -5
Robert
Solar has been getting massively slammed lately, too--- all while Obama is enacting coal-killing legislation.
Wall Street has ZERO conscious, all about money.
Yawn...it's getting way too predictable, Orwellian even.
You can still do very well if you understand their barbarism, just follow GS for example, trade the opposite of their guidance. It takes a lot of work.
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Post by tripoley on Aug 3, 2015 17:50:28 GMT -5
"I can hardly wait for that one Friday where the sales numbers surprise everyone to the upside." CCI, I guarantee you one thing, if you could hold your breath that long, no doc would require you to take a spirometry test prior to prescribing Afrezza. I suspect we see a Time magazine effect on Friday. 38,000 diabetics who read that Time saw their PCP for a physical last week. Some noticed the ad, and some asked their doctors about it. Many PCPs can do spirometry in their office. Some of those will get samples but lots of doctors offices don't have samples so some will get scripts. i don't expect a big effect, but I bet we get back over 500 TRx, and probably set a new high for TRx and NRx as well as total sales for the week. Fingers crossed. |
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Post by notamnkdmillionaire on Aug 3, 2015 18:39:47 GMT -5
"I can hardly wait for that one Friday where the sales numbers surprise everyone to the upside." CCI, I guarantee you one thing, if you could hold your breath that long, no doc would require you to take a spirometry test prior to prescribing Afrezza. I suspect we see a Time magazine effect on Friday. 38,000 diabetics who read that Time saw their PCP for a physical last week. Some noticed the ad, and some asked their doctors about it. Many PCPs can do spirometry in their office. Some of those will get samples but lots of doctors offices don't have samples so some will get scripts. i don't expect a big effect, but I bet we get back over 500 TRx, and probably set a new high for TRx and NRx as well as total sales for the week. Fingers crossed. Not if it is taking people 6-8 weeks to see their endo/pcp. |
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