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Post by lmj on Aug 5, 2015 13:30:10 GMT -5
I'm long MNKD with not enough research and not enough of a margin of safety. Consequently I've take an over 20% hit on the downside on a speculative bet.
For the LT holders who are bullish on this stock, I want to ask you why you think the market's perception of the stock is wrong?
I don't want to read posts about shorts manipulation etc. because that doesn't matter. It gets back to perception versus why you think the market is wrong.
I spoke to my general practitioner doctor about MNKD. His response was no one ever approached him with the drug for samples. He had no patient asking for it. And his view is if the insurance companies are not willing to pay, a drug has a very
hard time gaining any traction. Why do you think the company will turn this around?
Focus on perception versus why you think the market is wrong.
Only when the market realizes it is wrong will this stock trade up IMO. It's as simple as that. What is your edge on why you think you are right?
Without answers to this, I'm about to unload my shares. Thanks in advance.
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Post by lmj on Aug 5, 2015 13:39:13 GMT -5
So far 21 views and no one is willing to put down their thoughts. I don't want want to read something that everyone knows that is historical.
Why is the market wrong? That's what I want you to tell me and ask yourself for your own benefit.
I'm tired of taking hits on this stock day after day.
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Post by patryn on Aug 5, 2015 13:48:48 GMT -5
Sorry I was 2 of those 21 views and didn't feel a need to reply. You have already made up your mind and are just looking for some additional confirmation bias. I could share my own anecdotes about how my doctor thinks this will be a game changer when all his patients have an easier time actually complying, but that would merely be one person's opinion. Do some more research and make your own decision, just as I did my research and made mine. If after the end of your due diligence, you don't feel that MNKD was the right investment, then sell your shares, and be happy that you made the right decision for what's right for your situation in life.
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Post by 4Balance on Aug 5, 2015 13:53:52 GMT -5
I'm tired too. But I see a strategy at work to "bust the barriers." That strategy takes time. Insurance companies don't readily adopt new products, and it can easily take a year to get those ducks in a row. As docs like jpg point out, many docs are reluctant to prescribe a new drug in its first year on the market.
In a nut shell, I'm still in because I believe this drug is a true game changer for diabetics. That population is huge and growing.
And Technosphere is no one-trick pony. I believe the next drug MNKD develops will be in partnership with a company with deep pockets.
I'm schooling myself in the patience needed to see all of this come to fruition.
--4Balance
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Post by jay1ajay1a on Aug 5, 2015 13:55:50 GMT -5
IMJ, if you read many of the post on this site it is clear what the Longs think. So please do your DD and there is a lot here to find if you want to look. I personally feel that MNKD will win and change how many drugs are delivered. That is my perception and what my DD finds.
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Post by _neil on Aug 5, 2015 14:31:07 GMT -5
lmj- I am an unfortunate long but I can't bring myself to actually sell my holding. I think the market is right in the short term due to the uncertainty surrounding Sanofi's commitment, MNKD management's vision & execution and above all, the demand that simply doesn't seem to exist.
I have lost >40% of my original investment but at this point, my 'edge' is that I have time. The science is solid and if I were diabetic, I can't think of a reason why I won't pick up an inhaler instead of a needle. The other reason is that even as a niche drug, if the company were to be valued at the industry's average multiple, I seem to land around the 8$ PPS (25% of US T1 population switching to Afrezza, 25% of revenue going to MNKD and a 15 multiple to revenue). Since I cannot time the market, I will ride it out and hopefully learn a very expensive lesson or have my faith in myself and safe financial modeling restored.
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Post by LongMNKD on Aug 5, 2015 14:35:27 GMT -5
Listen to all the positive feedback from actual Afrezza users.. It's a great drug that people love. The holdback is insurance companies and lack of perscribing doctors but I believe that will change in the future as more people use Afrezza and word continues to spread. I truly believe Afrezza is a superior drug and that it will succeed. Thats why I hold and continue to invest in MNKD. If you can't say you believe the same, then maybe you should unload your shares.
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Post by kbrion77 on Aug 5, 2015 14:37:18 GMT -5
lmj:
1. Al Mann
2. The diabetic population, both current and projected
3. Afrezza actually EXCEEDS expectations
4. Partnering with a GLOBAL giant, if Mannkind were to go at this alone with their own sales force and marketing no way would I have hung around
5. The Technosphere technology has not even scratched the surface yet
6. Al Mann
This company was absolutely beat up through the ringer trying to gain FDA approvals and took a billion of Al's own money to have this company and products see the light of day. They wouldn't have survived if they didn't do what they have done in the past and are now in the process of cleaning up the balance sheet and it will only get better. There will be a day where they have 5 existing licensing deals and are printing money. Good luck.
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Post by mdcenter61 on Aug 5, 2015 14:38:22 GMT -5
I have followed this stock and owned since 2008. The market big cats don't like this company or this stock at this point in time, and that is certain. But not all the big cats feel that way, if you track what is happening with institutional holdings of MNKD. What is also certain is that the product and the science behind it is life-changing for those early adopters and the early reviews have exceeded all expectations. My bets are placed on the founder (Al Mann) and the science. Risky; yes, you better believe it, and if you can't live with that risk, don't own it. But I believe that the better mousetrap has been built, and that it is just a matter of time before it will be the gold standard of care.
PS - I don't know what happened to bmw's posts,  , but Bye Felicia to him anyway!
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Post by esstan2001 on Aug 5, 2015 14:47:23 GMT -5
What happened to the Tough guy Trader post with the blather about him eating people like us for lunch... it vanished- I was just about to have some fun with it!
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Post by mnholdem on Aug 5, 2015 14:50:10 GMT -5
Come on guys, don't let the trader guy railroad my thread. I seriously want to hear some of your thoughts on why you are contrarian to the market. Fair enough. In simplest terms, the Technosphere technology has the potential to reshape medicine and re-direct $billions. Success or failure will depend on whether opposition forces in the pharmaceuticals industry can stop it. I remain long because I don't think opposition will be able to stop Technosphere from rewriting many medical standards in the future.
----
In more descriptive terms?
There's no arguing the science, but the drug industry can seem as much politics as science. Getting a disruptive technology accepted by the industry (BP, payers, professionals and patients) can be like Galileo trying to convince the Catholic church that the earth is not the center of the universe. Disruptive medicine requires a lot of evidence.
For that reason, I'm glad Sanofi is driving the Afrezza bus. The science will prevail but, like Galileo, a company that isn't careful can wind up burnt at the stake.
MannKind, to the chagrin of many of its shareholders, is being careful and doing this right. For that reason, if no other, I believe that my investment in this company will be handsomely rewarded, as will others who think the way I do.
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Post by BD on Aug 5, 2015 14:51:43 GMT -5
What happened to the Tough guy Trader post with the blather about him eating people like us for lunch... it vanished- I was just about to have some fun with it! The thread has been cleaned up. It would really help if folks would stop bringing up the subject of the troll, lol |
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Post by mannmade on Aug 5, 2015 15:58:43 GMT -5
1.) Al Mann (nor Matt P) have sold any real amount of shares
2.) Remember the Science
3.) Go to afrezzajustbreath.com
4.) Go to afrezzauser.com
5.) When is the last time any FDA drug (except maybe Viagra) received such unsolicited positive social media attention?
6.) Near unanimous response from current users, very few people dissatisfied with actual experience using the drug
7.) Current price does not value TS
8.) Al Mann
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Post by notamnkdmillionaire on Aug 5, 2015 16:45:10 GMT -5
1.) Al Mann (nor Matt P) have sold any real amount of shares 2.) Remember the Science 3.) Go to afrezzajustbreath.com 4.) Go to afrezzauser.com 5.) When is the last time any FDA drug (except maybe Viagra) received such unsolicited positive social media attention? 6.) Near unanimous response from current users, very few people dissatisfied with actual experience using the drug 7.) Current price does not value TS 8.) Al Mann I agree the current price doesn't reflect TS but I think we know why. Outside of Afrezza, management has done nothing to provide any evidence that TS has any worth at all. Until they decide to actually prove they have an "embarrassment of riches" instead of just saying so, the company will continue to be treated like a redhead step child suffering from leprosy, a cleft lip, boils while being taught how to pick up women by Bill Cosby. |
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Post by taylor810dn on Aug 5, 2015 17:05:03 GMT -5
I am sure this won't be a popular question but one I came close to asking myself. I am OK with my position in MNKD for several months, but not several years. I know everything takes time but then you have individuals like Mr. Mann himself making comments like "share holders will be very happy soon", or at least that is what has been posted on message boards. The only real world input I have to consider besides boards like this is a very good friend who works in a very large diabetic clinic. Their patients come from all over the state as well as outside the state, and they only have 2 patients on Afrezza. That friend took the time to ask around the clinic and the feedback they got was that there were two main issues with Afrezza, the spirometry testing required and the main issue, not being able to dose it. They have drug reps in daily and there has not been much effort to change the view. The general consensus from the clinic staff is that Afrezza will follow in the same footsteps as Exubera. None of that info is speculation, it is the general mindset of the clinic from a completely reliable source. I know there can be great rewards when someone is willing to stay the course when the overall market indicates otherwise, but when you have large diabetic clinics that have essentially been sheltered from any information or results that could change the mindset and it is over a year since the drug was approved, you have to wonder if and/or when it will actually happen. Being a shorter term trader, I am torn between the longer term hold and the possible reward, but I have lost 40% on my position so far and at some point I have to say enough is enough as I am not prepared to lose it all. I think the Monday earnings call will be the deciding factor for me, if they don't say something that convinces me it is worth the risk, I will cut my losses and move on as my patience is worn about as thin as my broker account value. But the most difficult pill to swallow will be knowing that the shorts/manipulators won, at least against my patience. I have traded hundreds of stocks in the last 20 years and have never seen anything remotely close to the suspicious trading of MNKD.
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, but Bye Felicia to him anyway!
