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Post by patryn on Aug 6, 2015 10:32:00 GMT -5
Right now I'm convinced it lies mostly in the hands of the insurance companies. The patient demand and physicians (that have been targeted up to now) are there more than most think/realize, there is definitely a backlog of scripts waiting/building for approval...this directly from one of the top SNY reps in a particular region. Yes absolutely joeypotsandpans - I list that under SNY management as the main factor. They have the experience with new drug releases and the wherewithal to negotiate with the insurance companies. If they want to get this on formularies, they will do what it takes to get there (cut prices, show superiority, quid pro quo on other things in the pipeline etc...) |
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Post by savzak on Aug 6, 2015 10:35:59 GMT -5
I wish MNKD longs, I'm assuming you are one, would stop talking about SNY walking away, or wanting it to make a clear statement about commitment. It's tough enough having to deal with the shorts constantly harping on that nonsense. Drug companies spend a decade or more trying to develop a drug, for which it has very little idea about its ultimate commercial success. Moreover, the typical drug costs about a billion dollars from lab to patient. Did you know Pfizer spent almost 12 years in the development of Exubera and spent almost $3 billion?? So, why are we even thinking about SNY walking away from a likely huge blockbuster just a few months into the launch?  George Rho detailed the slow ramp of Lantus. How rapid do you think the ramp up of Novolog was??? And just for the record, Novolog was launched 14 months after it was approved in the United States. So, to all those bellyaching about SNY's sandbagging, slow to move, or whatever, please do your research before complaining about things you know little about. Greg, it's just my analysis of why we're at $4. I never said I think SNY will walk in January. I don't think SNY will walk in January. But I do think the price will be lower than it is now in 2 or 3 months if scripts aren't obviously ramping OR SNY hasn't settled the question of their commitment overtly. Again, I may be wrong. I often am.
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Post by bradleysbest on Aug 6, 2015 11:24:32 GMT -5
SNY will not walk away (IMO) considering the potential block buster it could become & the amazing user reviews. Most customers on Afrezza are having great results & SNY is aware of this fact. As frustrating as the share price is we need to excerise some patience. I am confident the SNY/MNKD alliance will be a winner, just don't know what year it will happen.....
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Post by greg on Aug 6, 2015 11:28:48 GMT -5
I wish MNKD longs, I'm assuming you are one, would stop talking about SNY walking away, or wanting it to make a clear statement about commitment. It's tough enough having to deal with the shorts constantly harping on that nonsense. Drug companies spend a decade or more trying to develop a drug, for which it has very little idea about its ultimate commercial success. Moreover, the typical drug costs about a billion dollars from lab to patient. Did you know Pfizer spent almost 12 years in the development of Exubera and spent almost $3 billion?? So, why are we even thinking about SNY walking away from a likely huge blockbuster just a few months into the launch? George Rho detailed the slow ramp of Lantus. How rapid do you think the ramp up of Novolog was??? And just for the record, Novolog was launched 14 months after it was approved in the United States. So, to all those bellyaching about SNY's sandbagging, slow to move, or whatever, please do your research before complaining about things you know little about. Greg, it's just my analysis of why we're at $4. I never said I think SNY will walk in January. I don't think SNY will walk in January. But I do think the price will be lower than it is now in 2 or 3 months if scripts aren't obviously ramping OR SNY hasn't settled the question of their commitment overtly. Again, I may be wrong. I often am.
Savzak, Not that it really matters but you did suggest the possibility of SNY walking in January. This notion is also supported by your comment about SNY settling "the question of their commitment overtly." Sanofi has spent hundreds of millions of dollars on Afrezza already, paying MNKD, building a sales force, establishing an infrastructure around the product, conducted hundreds, if not thousands, of educational seminars/lunches/dinners, worked on post-marketing studies with the FDA, negotiated with insurance companies, and has initiated direct-to-consumer advertising. It has also talked about Afrezza in almost all of its presentations and highlighted the product in its latest annual report. What kind of overt commitment would you like??? Would you like the CEO to go on CNBC and say something to the effect, we at Sanofi really really really like Afrezza and promise to market the product no matter what? It's comments like yours that perpetuate the nonsense constantly spouted by the shorts. Your comments about the price being lower also means very little. It certainly doesn't help investor sentiment, though. Did you think two months ago we'd be at $4? Did you think three months ago when the stock was at $3 and change that we'd be at $7 within days??? It's tough to know where the average stock is going to be in seven days, let along two or three months. And MNKD is certainly no average stock. |
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Post by cusop on Aug 6, 2015 11:34:31 GMT -5
I tink Sanofi will answer that question the moment they can ship Afrezza with there own insulin on board, it will round the product off and gives even greater % of the margin
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Post by jpg on Aug 6, 2015 11:41:17 GMT -5
I think MNKD investors are generally edgy right now!
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Post by savzak on Aug 6, 2015 11:50:00 GMT -5
Greg, it's just my analysis of why we're at $4. I never said I think SNY will walk in January. I don't think SNY will walk in January. But I do think the price will be lower than it is now in 2 or 3 months if scripts aren't obviously ramping OR SNY hasn't settled the question of their commitment overtly. Again, I may be wrong. I often am.
Savzak, Not that it really matters but you did suggest the possibility of SNY walking in January. This notion is also supported by your comment about SNY settling "the question of their commitment overtly." Sanofi has spent hundreds of millions of dollars on Afrezza already, paying MNKD, building a sales force, establishing an infrastructure around the product, conducted hundreds, if not thousands, of educational seminars/lunches/dinners, worked on post-marketing studies with the FDA, negotiated with insurance companies, and has initiated direct-to-consumer advertising. It has also talked about Afrezza in almost all of its presentations and highlighted the product in its latest annual report. What kind of overt commitment would you like??? Would you like the CEO to go on CNBC and say something to the effect, we at Sanofi really really really like Afrezza and promise to market the product no matter what? It's comments like yours that perpetuate the nonsense constantly spouted by the shorts. Your comments about the price being lower also means very little. It certainly doesn't help investor sentiment, though. Did you think two months ago we'd be at $4? Did you think three months ago when the stock was at $3 and change that we'd be at $7 within days??? It's tough to know where the average stock is going to be in seven days, let along two or three months. And MNKD is certainly no average stock. I'm simply commenting on what I believe is happening to the share price. You and I may both believe that SNY isn't going anywhere but I don't think the market is so sure. That's all I'm saying. Me saying it doesn't make it accurate. And if it is accurate, my saying it doesn't make it worse. The option of walking in January is a reality, whether it will be exercised is the question. I don't think so, but I think others are concerned about it.
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Post by tripoley on Aug 6, 2015 11:57:36 GMT -5
What happened to the Tough guy Trader post with the blather about him eating people like us for lunch... it vanished- I was just about to have some fun with it! The thread has been cleaned up. It would really help if folks would stop bringing up the subject of the troll, lol Hey, so what happened to the troll?  |
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Post by mdcenter61 on Aug 6, 2015 12:00:04 GMT -5
I think MNKD investors are generally edgy right now!
What do you mean, edgy, Huh, Huh?
Yes, I do think we are all pretty weary and edgy right now........I know I am. I'm thinking Spiro might have to build a compound out there in Siberia for us "Branch Mannkindians".
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Post by tripoley on Aug 6, 2015 12:12:50 GMT -5
Okay, so I read the first page and other than my smartass comment to BD, I realized something was missing in this conversation. Sorry if someone already addressed this, I didn't feel like reading pages 2 and 3.
During this conversion process the share price is being manipulated down so note holders can convert cheaper. Don't expect the price to go up until after 8/11. The price was at $5.50 prior to this fiasco so I expect the price to recover to the $5 range on 8/12 or so.
So, that said, why is the market wrong and it's not above $5.50+ after we get past this short term blip? All of the above. Now back to the convo.
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Post by patryn on Aug 6, 2015 12:26:13 GMT -5
I think MNKD investors are generally edgy right now! Having a high stock price rights all wrongs. It's never pleasant to see yourself losing money (paper money and yes some are actually still in the green overall, but still "lost" some of the additional gains they would have had when the stock price was in the $7 or $11 range). But being able to stick to your investments when you are most uncomfortable and knowing that you have done your due diligence and know what you are holding is the trademark of a great investor. I plan on being at a shareholder's meeting 5 years from now bantering about dark moments like this with all of you and wondering why we were worried at all when everything was so obvious! |
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Post by nylefty on Aug 6, 2015 12:38:45 GMT -5
I tink Sanofi will answer that question the moment they can ship Afrezza with there own insulin on board, it will round the product off and gives even greater % of the margin I don't know what the above means. Explanation? |
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Post by brentie on Aug 6, 2015 13:12:28 GMT -5
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Post by mannmade on Aug 6, 2015 14:21:21 GMT -5
Let's also not forget tha before Pfzier dropped Exhubera they had spent 3B on developing and marketing it. Sanofi is nowhere near close to that even w paid milestone payments to date.
Also they have not dropped Apridia which has not been selling well.
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Post by jpg on Aug 6, 2015 14:31:08 GMT -5
If pharma would drop every peoduct that didn't sell well in the first year or so they wouldn't be selling very few products and wouldn't have any partners!
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