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Post by charlespk on Aug 7, 2015 12:17:59 GMT -5
it should not be a surprise to anyone , that the MM , and HF will do everything in their power to be certain that we close under $4 today Friday , so they collect the premiums as they expire .
even knowing there is CC on Monday , they will figure they will just buy then if ( that's a big IF) , there was to be a surprise to the upside Monday .
The question I have is should we get call options - strike price - $ 4.00 for January 2016 , the price would be .75 to .77 so break even would be anything above 4.80 by Jan 2016 .
With a small push , I think the PPS would be over 4.80 by Jan 2016 . I only hesitate because I have so much riding on MNKD so far and because after the typical CC , usually they bring the PPS down , so Monday they could be cheaper .
any thoughts, Joey?
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Post by kc on Aug 7, 2015 13:37:00 GMT -5
Any last hour closing bell predictions? I bet the volume goes up 1,000,000 shares in the last hour?
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Post by longstocking on Aug 7, 2015 13:50:09 GMT -5
Any last hour closing bell predictions? I bet the volume goes up 1,000,000 shares in the last hour? I wouldn't be surprised to see that volume today. |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 7, 2015 14:14:13 GMT -5
it should not be a surprise to anyone , that the MM , and HF will do everything in their power to be certain that we close under $4 today Friday , so they collect the premiums as they expire . even knowing there is CC on Monday , they will figure they will just buy then if ( that's a big IF) , there was to be a surprise to the upside Monday . The question I have is should we get call options - strike price - $ 4.00 for January 2016 , the price would be .75 to .77 so break even would be anything above 4.80 by Jan 2016 . With a small push , I think the PPS would be over 4.80 by Jan 2016 . I only hesitate because I have so much riding on MNKD so far and because after the typical CC , usually they bring the PPS down , so Monday they could be cheaper . any thoughts, Joey? I am still in the camp if you're going for a pure long options play, the Jan'17's @ 3 with the offer (not many mind you) right now at 1.80 give you that same 4.80 but with 12 mos. more of potential upside for a buck more so to speak. |
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Post by longstocking on Aug 7, 2015 15:16:51 GMT -5
it should not be a surprise to anyone , that the MM , and HF will do everything in their power to be certain that we close under $4 today Friday , so they collect the premiums as they expire . even knowing there is CC on Monday , they will figure they will just buy then if ( that's a big IF) , there was to be a surprise to the upside Monday . The question I have is should we get call options - strike price - $ 4.00 for January 2016 , the price would be .75 to .77 so break even would be anything above 4.80 by Jan 2016 . With a small push , I think the PPS would be over 4.80 by Jan 2016 . I only hesitate because I have so much riding on MNKD so far and because after the typical CC , usually they bring the PPS down , so Monday they could be cheaper . any thoughts, Joey? I am still in the camp if you're going for a pure long options play, the Jan'17's @ 3 with the offer (not many mind you) right now at 1.80 give you that same 4.80 but with 12 mos. more of potential upside for a buck more so to speak. I agree. I recently bought 45 contracts of the Jan 17 calls at $3. |
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Post by charlespk on Aug 7, 2015 15:27:51 GMT -5
thanks Joey and longstocking :
The 3's make sense , gaining the time frame , same Break even point , but we have a year and a half , just have to put more money up front .
As to the opening statements of my thread , of course they close it below 4 , to grab all the money from the expired options , but already past 4 after hrs , since they know Monday am is CC .
Anyone wants to guess the after hrs volume today and price by after hrs closing , so they are so good at this game 
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Post by robsacher on Aug 8, 2015 21:27:11 GMT -5
thanks Joey and longstocking :
The 3's make sense , gaining the time frame , same Break even point , but we have a year and a half , just have to put more money up front .
As to the opening statements of my thread , of course they close it below 4 , to grab all the money from the expired options , but already past 4 after hrs , since they know Monday am is CC .
Anyone wants to guess the after hrs volume today and price by after hrs closing , so they are so good at this game
I also agree with Joey. The Jan 17 options will buy you time. However, I also believe that a lot of longs will be making crucial decisions in early 2017 if 2016 is more difficult than we expected. Therefore, LEAPS even further out in 2017 may be a better play. |
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Post by babaoriley on Aug 9, 2015 2:36:22 GMT -5
Go as far out as possible, and if you get Jan 17's trade them for Jan 18's when they become available in October. There's no substitute for time (apparently).
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Post by ashiwi on Aug 9, 2015 6:52:43 GMT -5
Go as far out as possible, and if you get Jan 17's trade them for Jan 18's when they become available in October. There's no substitute for time (apparently). Baba, another substitute would have been to sell the calls instead of buying them. Over the past bunch of years, that strategy has paid off much better for the most part. But who would have ever imagined selling a $4 call would have bee profitable a year ago?.. |
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Post by bretzyboy on Aug 9, 2015 8:07:38 GMT -5
As an alternative, selling the Jan 17 $3 puts would yield an annualized 28%. This would be very similar to selling the same strike calls except for the advantage on closing the contracts if the pps increases and volatility declines significantly. Buying the calls would throw the decline of premium value into the mix if the share price increases. Just my two cents. I'm not promoting this website at all but it's useful for data regarding the fundamentals on options such as returns and probabilities. Of course there's the CBOE website also. www.stockoptionschannel.com/symbol/?symbol=MNKD&month=20170120&type=put |
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Post by jpg on Aug 9, 2015 10:45:06 GMT -5
Another alternative would be to simply buy some shares...
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Post by babaoriley on Aug 9, 2015 11:25:49 GMT -5
Go as far out as possible, and if you get Jan 17's trade them for Jan 18's when they become available in October. There's no substitute for time (apparently). Baba, another substitute would have been to sell the calls instead of buying them. Over the past bunch of years, that strategy has paid off much better for the most part. But who would have ever imagined selling a $4 call would have bee profitable a year ago?.. Sold many a call over the years on MNKD, and only rarely have any shares been called away from me.  On the other hand, I've had plenty of shares assigned to me over the last year or so. |
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Post by babaoriley on Aug 9, 2015 11:27:06 GMT -5
Another alternative would be to simply buy some shares... Very boring, jpg.  |
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Post by longstocking on Aug 22, 2015 13:47:55 GMT -5
Another alternative would be to simply buy some shares... I bought my 2016 and 2017 $3 calls with the intention of executing, not selling. Got enough in my IRA that my 2016 and 2017 contributions are basically already spent at today's prices. Also bought some in my kids' ESA accounts. My way of trying to eek out every ounce of tax savings benefit. Sort of a education/retirement layaway plan. All remaining capital is being invested into shares now. Overall call option investment only represents 5% of my overall investment in MNKD. I certainly welcome any thoughts/suggestions on my approach. |
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On the other hand, I've had plenty of shares assigned to me over the last year or so. 