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Post by spiro on Dec 15, 2013 15:21:24 GMT -5
I believe it is safe to assume that at least one, if not several major pharmaceutical companies have reached the same conclusion on Afrezza as BeyondProxy ( www.beyondproxy.com ) and the several doctors that post here. if that is the case, then certainly the CEO's of these companies are probably be quite nervous about the possibility of not being selected by MNKD as the partner. If in fact they have reached this logical conclusion, I believe they are in the process of making a serious offer to MNKD. I also do not think the 74 day letter is an issue, nor FDA approval. If FDA approval becomes a temporary issue, MNKD and it's partner will simply proceed with overseas approvals. If I am correct in my thinking here, I believe a partnership announcement is imminent and the terms will be surprisingly favorable for MNKD. Spiro's definition of Imminent - An event that could occur within a reasonable amount of time. Spiro's probabilities are as follows: Within 10 days - 40% Within 20 days - 50% Within 30 days - 75% Within 60 days - 90% By FDA approval - 100% To avoid being called an hysterical pumper. I will leave share price speculation to others. But consider the following chain reaction of events that will occur shortly after a major partner announcement. Just to name a few. A. Halt in trading- maybe, this one could be fun. B. Shorts panic - remember they think that Afrezza is just like Exhubera and that big pharma will not partner. C. Immediate share price target upgrades - this one will be fun. D. Within days, new analysts come on board with nice targets. E. Institutional buying will explode. F. Retail investor fatigue will be gone. G. PR and conferences from new partner will provide interesting times for longs. |
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Post by liane on Dec 15, 2013 15:34:21 GMT -5
spiro,
Like your thinking. I would weight even more highly partnership by EOY (within 2 weeks). All the cards will be on the table, except approval - and that's widely expected by all.
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Post by babaoriley on Dec 15, 2013 15:50:09 GMT -5
Hey, Spiro, appreciate your spirit and enthusiasm!
Liane, if approval is truly widely expected by all, then we're not likely to get much of a price bump if we do get approval. I do not think it is so widely expected.
Shorts will not panic; they rarely do that, and this will not be an exception. They will sit and wait for their various attack dogs to do just that. Don't ever forget about our current market cap, it's not conducive to shorts panicking!
Our bump will come with partnership agreement that is viewed as good for both MNKD and the partner.
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Post by spiro on Dec 15, 2013 16:30:18 GMT -5
Baba,
A major pharma partner is the shorts worst nightmare. They will stampede to switch sides and go long. You are grasping, if you think the shorts will wait for a couple of most likely ineffective hit pieces. The partner will add the needed credibility and PR to help move Afrezaa past the FDA and quickly gain European approval. MNKD will soon be a must have stock in most institutional portfolios. Check with Vanguard about that. Those who worry about the market cap will certainly miss out on this explosive opportunity. The shorts best argument has always been that MNKD will not attract a major partner. If that happens, they will head for shelter and move on.
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Post by ashiwi on Dec 15, 2013 16:47:43 GMT -5
Nicely done Spiro. We were disappointed at X-Mas 3 years ago when the FDA delayed the PDUFA date, Only to get the CRL 3 weeks later.
Let's hope that this X-Mas will be different.
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Post by Chris on Dec 15, 2013 16:57:17 GMT -5
I believe it is safe to assume that at least one, if not several major pharmaceutical companies have reached the same conclusion on Afrezza as BeyondProxy ( www.beyondproxy.com ) and the several doctors that post here. if that is the case, then certainly the CEO's of these companies are probably be quite nervous about the possibility of not being selected by MNKD as the partner. If in fact they have reached this logical conclusion, I believe they are in the process of making a serious offer to MNKD. I also do not think the 74 day letter is an issue, nor FDA approval. If FDA approval becomes a temporary issue, MNKD and it's partner will simply proceed with overseas approvals. If I am correct in my thinking here, I believe a partnership announcement is imminent and the terms will be surprisingly favorable for MNKD. Spiro's definition of Imminent - An event that could occur within a reasonable amount of time. Spiro's probabilities are as follows: Within 10 days - 40% Within 20 days - 50% Within 30 days - 75% Within 60 days - 90% By FDA approval - 100% To avoid being called an hysterical pumper. I will leave share price speculation to others. But consider the following chain reaction of events that will occur shortly after a major partner announcement. Just to name a few. A. Halt in trading- maybe, this one could be fun. B. Shorts panic - remember they think that Afrezza is just like Exhubera and that big pharma will not partner. C. Immediate share price target upgrades - this one will be fun. D. Within days, new analysts come on board with nice targets. E. Institutional buying will explode. F. Retail investor fatigue will be gone. G. PR and conferences from new partner will provide interesting times for longs. Spiro, Can I pick your brain a bit? Why does your probabilities increase by 10% from 40% to 50% with an addition of 10 days? Today's date is 12/15 + 10 (12/25) + 10 (1/04). Does it increase by 10% because you expect the 74 day filing letter to address no concerns/issues? Why would you say there is a 3/4 chance MNKD will partner within the next month? __________________________________ I see no EOY partnership announcement being made. So I'd say: Within 10 days: 1% Within 20 days: 2.5 (more than doubles from the previous amount) Within 30 days: 10% (quadruple the previous amount 1/10 chance) Within 60 days (around Feb 15, 2014 - two months before approval date): 40% (quadruple the previous amount, a 4/10 chance) By FDA Approval: 95% (more than double the amount) |
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Post by spiro on Dec 15, 2013 17:25:03 GMT -5
Chris,
It's just my way of predicting the chances of the actually event. Say they were bets. Within 10 days you would bet 40 to win 60. The 20 day bet would be , lay 50 to win 50. The 60 day bet would be to lay 90 to win 10. Now that's confidence. The bigger question is, How many partner's, if any have reached the same conclusion as BeyondProxy? I am sure Greenhill has some of the best poker players in the world working on this deal for MNKD. No deal - No pay. I wouldn't be surprised if BeyondProxy had gotten there hands on Greenhill's or some drug companies research on MNKD.
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Post by biotec on Dec 15, 2013 19:09:14 GMT -5
Who knows when A partnership will be announced.It would be nice before the new year. Chris why only 2.5 before yrs end? Why not 3% or 4%
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Post by ashiwi on Dec 15, 2013 19:42:08 GMT -5
With approximately 120 days until PDUFA. I Would predict the odds of a partner signing on go up
1.2% each day. Of course there is always the remote possibility that the partner might
Not sign on until after approval. KOSP never signed up with a partner for Niaspan and said
They would market it on their own. They ultimately got bought out by big pharma for a huge premium soon there after.
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Post by savzak on Dec 15, 2013 20:14:09 GMT -5
With approximately 120 days until PDUFA. I Would predict the odds of a partner signing on go up 1.2% each day. Of course there is always the remote possibility that the partner might Not sign on until after approval. KOSP never signed up with a partner for Niaspan and said They would market it on their own. They ultimately got bought out by big pharma for a huge premium soon there after. I love the intrigue. Our situation as investors in MNKD is very exciting. Some say biotech investing is a gamble. I say "Bull". Investing in THIS biotech is an exercise in due diligence and careful calculation. I don't know when we'll partner, but I do know this...we are right now to the point where I will no longer be truly surprised when it happens. Tomorrow, next week, next month...anytime at all now makes perfect sense. Why? Because we simply cannot know all of the issues and variables that are in play. I do believe that one day very soon we will wake up to the announcement. My vindictive side is very hopeful that somehow there will be no leak ahead of the event. I know shorts are massively institutional and mostly well hedged, but I would love it if our partnership announcement could trigger one of the rare occasions where they burn to the ground. |
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Post by Chris on Dec 15, 2013 23:19:52 GMT -5
Chris, It's just my way of predicting the chances of the actually event. Say they were bets. Within 10 days you would bet 40 to win 60. The 20 day bet would be , lay 50 to win 50. The 60 day bet would be to lay 90 to win 10. Now that's confidence. The bigger question is, How many partner's, if any have reached the same conclusion as BeyondProxy? I am sure Greenhill has some of the best poker players in the world working on this deal for MNKD. No deal - No pay. I wouldn't be surprised if BeyondProxy had gotten there hands on Greenhill's or some drug companies research on MNKD. Spiro, Thanks for the response and explanation! I see the value in your thoughts. But if we're talking about poker, remember bluffing is always on option too. Last time around MNKD MGMT heavily alluded to a partnership; they even had to pay out shareholders for their misleading statements not to long ago. Just a thought. Cheers, Chris |
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Post by Chris on Dec 15, 2013 23:22:10 GMT -5
Who knows when A partnership will be announced.It would be nice before the new year. Chris why only 2.5 before yrs end? Why not 3% or 4%  |
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Post by babaoriley on Dec 16, 2013 0:29:48 GMT -5
What's that, Chris, a schematic of a roller coaster at Magic Mountain? Hey, took a trip to the Mission Inn today, never been, quite a place!!! And the weather was ridiculously nice, about 72 degrees! Short sleeves at 8:00 pm. Mario's across from Inn was excellent!
Savzak, "Some say biotech investing is a gamble. I say "Bull". Investing in THIS biotech is an exercise in due diligence and careful calculation.'
Believe me, it's a gamble, and a large one at that! Unless, of course, the stock only figures to go up to about $10 after partnership AND approval, then perhaps a surer bet. But if we can get to the $20+ range in stock price after a partnered approval, then it's a gamble. Just works that way, no amount of due diligence can prepare for the kind of random crap that can happen in developmental biotech. Excessive due diligence leads to excessive confidence and ultimately, in many cases too excessive hubris - not a good thing, I speak from much experience.
And also believe me, I'm very long on MNKD, cuz I invest a bit too much with my heart, but I do sell calls with my brain. LOL, good luck, Savzak, and everyone else!
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Post by Chris on Dec 19, 2013 15:18:14 GMT -5
What's that, Chris, a schematic of a roller coaster at Magic Mountain? Hey, took a trip to the Mission Inn today, never been, quite a place!!! And the weather was ridiculously nice, about 72 degrees! Short sleeves at 8:00 pm. Mario's across from Inn was excellent! Savzak, "Some say biotech investing is a gamble. I say "Bull". Investing in THIS biotech is an exercise in due diligence and careful calculation.' Believe me, it's a gamble, and a large one at that! Unless, of course, the stock only figures to go up to about $10 after partnership AND approval, then perhaps a surer bet. But if we can get to the $20+ range in stock price after a partnered approval, then it's a gamble. Just works that way, no amount of due diligence can prepare for the kind of random crap that can happen in developmental biotech. Excessive due diligence leads to excessive confidence and ultimately, in many cases too excessive hubris - not a good thing, I speak from much experience. And also believe me, I'm very long on MNKD, cuz I invest a bit too much with my heart, but I do sell calls with my brain. LOL, good luck, Savzak, and everyone else! haha, just a random picture I pulled up as a joke response. The Mission Inn is so beautiful around the Christmas Season. The lights are a spectacle, aren't they? Were you able to sit on Former President Taft's chair? Yes the weather in Riverside is superb at times. Mario's is a great place to grab drinks! |
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