Share Valuation based upon current Danbury Output (my take)

[otherottawaguy]

My spin on what a share of mankind is woth based upon current output capacity at Danbury:

Lines: 3
Capacity per line: 166K
Total Capacity: 500k (client dosages annually)

Annual Cost to Client: $2300
Cost to Manufacture (CTM): $500 (guessing, corrections are welcome)
Net: $1800

Partnership split: 35% to MNKD + GTM
MNKD Licencing Return: $630 (after full year of sales FY ending Jul 2015)

MNKD Net Profit: 315M (no tax impact due to carry forward)


Discount Rate: 9.5%(thank you Deerfield)
Time to yearJul 2015: 1.5years


Present Value: 315M/1.14 = 276M

P/E: 18
Valuation: 4.97B (billion)

Share Count: 420M

Today's share Price: 4.978 B / 420 M = $11.85

Emphasis this is based upon a few assumptions (Royalties, Cost to Produce, Share Count, only 3 lines avail, and the biggy: a Partner)

Does not assume FDA decision going the wrong way.

Comments are always wellcome,

OOG 

[rak5555]

Seems reasonable. Also, no point in trying to factor in current "free" insulin inventory since the market will not recognize the benefit as sustainable. Can you imagine the jump in share price that will occur when they break ground on 2nd facility. I wonder if 2nd facility will be in Europe? Also, once Afrezza is approved, there will be a steady procession of licensing agreements over the ensuing years.

[otherottawaguy]

Rak:

The numbers for Danbury equate to 25% of current floor plan capacity. The numbers that I have offered therefore amount to only 1.8% of the US diabetic population so at current max capacity it will only be able to supply 7-8% of the US diabetic population, so your suggestion of additional facilities elsewhere is bang on the mark.

OOG