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Post by rickyr49117 on Aug 23, 2015 18:46:22 GMT -5
mnlearner
Idea for consideration/discussion Tipping Points and Afrezza
Has anyone thought about the Afrezza launch in light of the ideas in 'The Tipping Point' and 'Crossing The Chasm', books and models? It seems to me that Sanofi is following the ideas. If you look at Wikipedia it says :"Crossing the Chasm is closely related to the technology adoption lifecycle where five main segments are recognized: innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority and laggards. According to Moore, the marketer should focus on one group of customers at a time, using each group as a base for marketing to the next group. The most difficult step is making the transition between visionaries (early adopters) and pragmatists (early majority). "
Could this be where we are with MNKD? Anyone knowledgeable about what may be the tipping point number of Rx for Afrezza? Also, if the shorts are using these models, could these ideas be why they are hacking away at MNKD, secure in the knowledge that the tipping point is still a ways away? Anyones thoughts? Thanks
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Post by rickyr49117 on Aug 23, 2015 18:47:41 GMT -5
somehow I created a new ID and it just goes to show how 'tech savvy' I am. (; MNLEARNER
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Post by liane on Aug 23, 2015 19:21:55 GMT -5
somehow I created a new ID and it just goes to show how 'tech savvy' I am. (; MNLEARNER Hopefully you will now remember your user ID and PW. We frown on multiple accounts. I actually saw 2 other accounts attributed to you. I deleted one of them that had no previous posts. |
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Post by rickyr49117 on Aug 23, 2015 22:03:01 GMT -5
Thank you, I really do NOT try to do that.
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Post by _neil on Aug 25, 2015 9:43:22 GMT -5
Tipping point for sales of A will be once at least 20% of the leading medical practitioners have been informed/convinced that Afrezza is the real deal and at least 50% of the insurers cover the drug. Until then, nothing else will really matter. The tipping point for the stock? I don't think anyone can predict that.China is as much a factor as is Sanofi at this point.
I got into MNKD considering it a technology company. In tech, we are required to think about platforms and not products and the inhaler looked like a platform. This being my first foray into biotech, I did some very conservative math about how easy it is to scale and how 'undervalued' it was compared to peers with no substitute solution. I think the management and stock holders like myself have been too smug about having superior product on their hands and assuming the better mousetrap will make people beat a path to us. I am hoping what we are dealing with is not a world leading tech company/alliance with no chops in sales.In other words, I hope MNKD will prove that it's not another Xerox that invented the 21st century but sold nothing worthwhile.
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Post by rickyr49117 on Aug 25, 2015 10:10:15 GMT -5
Continuing along this line of thinking, I'm wondering if any of you re familiar with the algorithms associated with tipping point theory and could apply them to MNKD. I believe that is what the big boy shorts are doing and they have an idea when the tipping point will be reached.
IF anyone has any ideas or better yet, a short summary of what the algorithmic projections may look like, I/we all would love to hear them. When I get a chance , I'll look back at the Tipping Point book and see if I can work something out but I have to get my classes ready in the mean time.
Thanks a million, in advance.
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Post by BlueCat on Aug 25, 2015 16:23:30 GMT -5
mnlearner Idea for consideration/discussion Tipping Points and Afrezza Has anyone thought about the Afrezza launch in light of the ideas in 'The Tipping Point' and 'Crossing The Chasm', books and models? It seems to me that Sanofi is following the ideas. If you look at Wikipedia it says :"Crossing the Chasm is closely related to the technology adoption lifecycle where five main segments are recognized: innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority and laggards. According to Moore, the marketer should focus on one group of customers at a time, using each group as a base for marketing to the next group. The most difficult step is making the transition between visionaries (early adopters) and pragmatists (early majority). " Could this be where we are with MNKD? Anyone knowledgeable about what may be the tipping point number of Rx for Afrezza? Also, if the shorts are using these models, could these ideas be why they are hacking away at MNKD, secure in the knowledge that the tipping point is still a ways away? Anyones thoughts? Thanks Interesting line of thought from business perspective. My last team contracted directly with Moore as a consultant, and had some discussion with him about application of his theories to large corporations in markets in states of rapid change. Some very good stuff in his theory/practice. But of course, one size never fits all, and its just a set of guidelines or useful concepts. Even Moore agrees with this. Regarding the "one at a time" approach: 1. IMHO - No company (beyond very small or startup) should ever be a 'one trick' pony and drop all other products and sales. 2. This doesn't map simply for a very large corporation, like a SNY. There, each business area acts like its own separate entity. Could be by region, could be by area - say - diabetes. 3. You have to consider what it is that is crossing the chasm …. and for which company - to correctly map to industry opportunity. For Sanofi - Toujeo is just the cash-cow Lantus refreshed, and they are marketing to that late majority in a leadership position. Afrezza is their chasm-crosser. Per Moore's guidance, they should focus more resources on the chasm-crosser to establish leadership as it moves into early majority, as their existing leadership position in late majority-laggard technology should not require much heavy lifting. The problem is if their leadership executes incorrectly and get cold feet - worried about losing market share or revenue too much, and miss the real market opportunity as a result. For MNKD, its their platform, Technosphere. And yea - as a platform, Technosphere is trying to cross the chasm. The good news is that inhaled medication is already crossing (TS is not the first) - with inhaled flu vaccines, etc etc. TS is a much better version of this already known delivery mechanism, so has an opportunity to take lead on its way to an early majority. And as long as MNKD doesn't try to become something else and lose focus, they are a "one trick pony" on their platform - and they are executing according. But they have to move fast, and aggressively with this. Afrezza is key here as a proof-of-platform. I imagine most here are more interested in financials, legal and science strategy. But marketing/sales strategy (Go-to-market) beyond distribution and pricing is highly relevant at this stage, so hopefully you find something interesting in this discourse. NET - I am highly bullish for both MNKD and SNY if you apply Moore's ideas onto their current business strategies. It now comes to execution and ultimately, the very real people at the helm of both companies. |
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Post by rickyr49117 on Aug 27, 2015 22:08:35 GMT -5
Thank you, very interesting
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Post by babaoriley on Aug 30, 2015 0:13:45 GMT -5
I received the following link from nursette Lynn, who is unable to post this evening, as she has the wrong equipment for the job! She says it reminds her very much of the Afrezza movement, and I think it reminds me of it, too. Eventually, we'll have the momentum and the masses behind us. It's a TED talk, but a very short one. www.ted.com/talks/derek_sivers_how_to_start_a_movement?language=en |
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Post by ashiwi on Aug 30, 2015 3:21:01 GMT -5
I received the following link from nursette Lynn, who is unable to post this evening, as she has the wrong equipment for the job! She says it reminds her very much of the Afrezza movement, and I think it reminds me of it, too. Eventually, we'll have the momentum and the masses behind us. It's a TED talk, but a very short one. www.ted.com/talks/derek_sivers_how_to_start_a_movement?language=enWow. I never realized we are all nuts. I thought that the first dancer / leader was Spiro. Almost didn't recognize him without the dreamboat in his mouth. |
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Post by babaoriley on Aug 30, 2015 13:00:53 GMT -5
Ashiwi, he's the one with the plaid shorts and the long black socks.  |
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Post by 4allthemarbles on Aug 31, 2015 15:58:34 GMT -5
Ashiwi, he's the one with the plaid shorts and the long black socks. What else should you wear when cutting the grass? Sandals. |
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